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Say Goodbye to Peak Oil, for The Time Being

COMMENT: We’ve exam­ined the Peak Oil pro­pa­ganda phe­nom­e­non in sev­eral past broad­casts. Based on the notion that the world is run­ning out of oil, it has been used as jus­ti­fi­ca­tion for cast­ing aside envi­ron­men­tal con­cerns, rais­ing prices and impos­ing dra­con­ian social pro­grams to deal with the “emergency.”

As we saw in FTR #506, the petro­leum com­pa­nies have been say­ing the world has been run­ning out of oil since the 1920’s. (That was the jus­ti­fi­ca­tion for the devel­op­ment of the Fischer/Tropsch process to syn­the­size oil from coal.)

The epi­cen­ter for the Peak Oil ide­ol­ogy is HIS Energy Group, a sub­sidiary of Thyssen/Bornemisza indus­tries, which draws its con­clu­sions based on data fed to them by the very com­pa­nies that ben­e­fit from the dis­sem­i­na­tion of the theory.

It is no coin­ci­dence that Thyssen/Krupp bought the Leuna hydro­gena­tion plant, orig­i­nally built by I.G. Far­ben dur­ing World War II to syn­the­size oil uti­liz­ing the Fischer/Tropsch process.

The fear mon­ger­ing over Peak Oil has been used to pro­pose a Nazi-linked social agenda.

For now at least, the oil com­pa­nies and their amen cho­rus have relaxed their pro­pa­ganda, see­ing plenty of oil for decades to come.

It will be inter­est­ing to see how long this “Petro­leum Pro­pa­ganda Ploy” remains dor­mant. When prices get too low, or envi­ron­men­tal restric­tions too high for the lik­ing of the oil barons, don’t be sur­prised to see it reemerge.

In pass­ing, I will note that I am fun­da­men­tally crit­i­cal of the fos­sil fuels industry–two thumbs down on oil. We should be going full speed ahead to develop renewal energy sources. Many pro-environment advo­cates have been suck­ered by the peak oil phe­nom­e­non, see­ing it as a “green issue.” It is noth­ing of the kind.

“Peak Oil Scare Fades as Shale, Deep­wa­ter Wells Gush Crude” by Joe Car­roll; Bloomberg News; 2/6/2012.

EXCERPT: When Daniel Lacalle, in his early 20s, took a job with Span­ish oil com­pany Rep­sol YPF SA in 1991, friends chided him for enter­ing a field with no future. “They all said, ‘Why do you want to do that? Don’t you know only 20 years of oil is left in the whole world?’” he recalls.

Two decades and four energy crises later, the U.S. Geo­log­i­cal Sur­vey esti­mates that more than 2 tril­lion bar­rels of untouched crude is still locked in the ground, enough to last more than 70 years at cur­rent rates of con­sump­tion. Tech­no­log­i­cal advances enable com­pa­nies to image, drill and shat­ter sub­ter­ranean rocks with pre­ci­sion never dreamed of in decades past. Tril­lions of bar­rels of petro­leum pre­vi­ously thought unreach­able or nonex­is­tent have been iden­ti­fied, mapped and in many cases bought and sold dur­ing the past half decade, from the boggy wastes of north­ern Alberta, to the arid moun­tain val­leys of Patag­o­nia, to Africa’s Rift Valley.

“Bet­ting against human inge­nu­ity has been a mis­take,” says Lacalle, who today helps over­see $1.3 bil­lion as a port­fo­lio man­ager at Ecofin Ltd. in Lon­don. “The resource base is absolutely enor­mous, so much so that we will not run out of oil in my life­time, your life­time, our children’s life­times or our grandchildren’s lifetimes.” . . .

Discussion

4 comments for “Say Goodbye to Peak Oil, for The Time Being”

  1. Posted by Keith | February 23, 2012, 5:13 am
  2. Heh, the US is cur­rently export­ing so much oil that we now have Thomas Fried­man ask­ing the ques­tion “Should the US join OPEC?”.

    Posted by Pterrafractyl | February 26, 2012, 3:36 pm
  3. Peak Water, com­ing to a future war zone near you. Actu­ally, there’s noth­ing to worry about...the water wars aren’t expected start for another decade. That should be plenty of time to pre­pare for the loss of a vital resource:

    Fights over WATER will spark this century’s wars, says U.S. (just like Bond film Quan­tum of Solace)

    By Daily Mail Reporter

    PUBLISHED: 21:03 EST, 22 March 2012 | UPDATED: 21:21 EST, 22 March 2012

    The strug­gle over access to water sup­plies could spark global war in the next few decades, accord­ing to a new report from U.S. officials.

    ...

    U.S. intel­li­gence agen­cies said in a report released on Thurs­day that drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause sig­nif­i­cant global insta­bil­ity and con­flict in the com­ing decades, as devel­op­ing coun­tries scram­ble to meet demand from explod­ing pop­u­la­tions while deal­ing with the effects of cli­mate change.

    An assess­ment reflect­ing the joint judg­ment of fed­eral intel­li­gence agen­cies says the risk of water issues caus­ing wars in the next 10 years is min­i­mal even as they cre­ate ten­sions within and between states and threaten to dis­rupt national and global food markets.

    But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of ter­ror­ism will become more likely, par­tic­u­larly in South Asia, the Mid­dle East and North Africa.

    The report is based on a clas­si­fied National Intel­li­gence Esti­mate on water secu­rity, which was requested by Sec­re­tary of State Hillary Rod­ham Clin­ton and com­pleted last fall.

    It says floods, scarce and poor qual­ity water, com­bined with poverty, social ten­sion, poor lead­er­ship and weak gov­ern­ments will con­tribute to insta­bil­ity that could lead the fail­ure of numer­ous states.

    Those ele­ments ‘will likely increase the risk of insta­bil­ity and state fail­ure, exac­er­bate regional ten­sions, and dis­tract coun­tries from work­ing with the United States on impor­tant pol­icy objec­tives,’ said the report, which was released at a State Depart­ment event com­mem­o­rat­ing World Water Day.

    ...

    The report noted that coun­tries have in the past tried to resolve water issues through nego­ti­a­tion but said that could change as water short­ages become more severe.

    ‘We judge that as water short­ages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increas­ingly be used as lever­age; the use of water as a weapon or to fur­ther ter­ror­ist objec­tives, also will become more likely beyond 10 years,’ it said.

    The report pre­dicts that upstream nations — more pow­er­ful than their down­stream neigh­bors due to geog­ra­phy — will limit access to water for polit­i­cal rea­sons and that coun­tries will reg­u­late inter­nal sup­plies to sup­press sep­a­ratist move­ments and dis­si­dent populations.

    ...

    The unclas­si­fied sum­mary of the intel­li­gence esti­mate does not iden­tify the spe­cific coun­tries most at risk.

    But it notes that the study focused on sev­eral spe­cific rivers and water basins. Those included the Nile in Egypt, Sudan and nations fur­ther south, the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq and the greater Mid­dle East, the Mekong in China and South­east Asia, the Jor­dan that sep­a­rates Israel from the Pales­tin­ian ter­ri­to­ries, the Indus and the Brahma­pu­tra in India and South Asia as well as the Amu Darya in Cen­tral Asia.

    This is one of those arti­cles that’s a reminder that the col­lapse of the ecosys­tem may be bad for just about every­thing and every­one but it’s great for war-profiteersbusi­ness!

    Posted by Pterrafractyl | March 29, 2012, 10:27 pm
  4. @Pterrafractyl: Sad but true. One must won­der how soon these ‘water wars’ could start........and just how bad ter­ror­ism could really get. Pos­si­bly even a nuke or two being exploded, over say, Tel Aviv or Cairo? Not pleas­ant stuff to think about. =(

    Posted by Steven L. | March 30, 2012, 11:06 am

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