Spitfire List Web site and blog of anti-fascist researcher and radio personality Dave Emory.

For The Record  

FTR #128 Interview V with Dr. Nick Begich

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MP3 Side 1 | Side 2

This pro­gram con­cludes a series of inter­views with Dr. Nick Begich, the author (along with Jeane Man­ning) of Angels Don’t Play this HAARP: Advances in Tes­la Tech­nol­o­gy (soft-cov­er edi­tion, Earth­pulse Press, copy­right 1995.) Termed “a rev­o­lu­tion in mil­i­tary affairs,” this tech­nol­o­gy offers a num­ber of dif­fer­ent and, in some cas­es, ter­ri­fy­ing pos­si­bil­i­ties. After a read­ing of Dr. Begich’s farewell let­ter to his sup­port­ers and col­lab­o­ra­tors (he’s mov­ing on to oth­er projects), the dis­cus­sion cen­ters on the untime­ly and, to a cer­tain extent, mys­te­ri­ous death of Gael Flan­na­gan, one of Dr. Begich’s close friends and sources of inspi­ra­tion. Pri­or to her death, Ms. Flan­na­gan had been warn­ing Dr. Begich that she felt it was time for him to move on to oth­er projects. Most of the broad­cast is a review and syn­op­sis of mate­r­i­al pre­sent­ed in the pre­vi­ous four inter­views with Dr. Begich, avail­able from Spit­fire. (Record­ed in Jan­u­ary of 1999.)

Discussion

3 comments for “FTR #128 Interview V with Dr. Nick Begich”

  1. Dan­ger! Russ­ian nukes in orbit! That was the gen­er­al mes­sage the Amer­i­can pub­lic got fol­low­ing a wave of alarm­ing reports about a new dia­bol­i­cal Russ­ian plot to put some sort of nuclear device in orbit. Or, rather, reports about an alarmed Repub­li­can Rep. Mike Turn­er of Ohio, the chair of the House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee, who decid­ed to take this sto­ry pub­lic.

    So is Rus­sia about to launch some sort of space-based nuclear launch sys­tem? Nope. But there are plans to put a nuclear-pow­ered EMP device in orbit, poten­tial­ly as soon as some time this year accord­ing to unnamed gov­ern­ment sources. That’s the sto­ry that’s emerg­ing, which Rus­sia denies entire­ly. And while the verac­i­ty of these claims remains extreme­ly unclear, it’s worth not­ing that a sto­ry like this is some­thing we prob­a­bly should have expect­ed giv­en the ongo­ing mil­i­ta­riza­tion of the low-earth orbit (LEO) space thanks to the SpaceX Star­link clus­ter of thou­sands of microsatel­lites.

    As we’re going to see, it’s pri­mar­i­ly the LEO satel­lites that are seen as vul­ner­a­ble here. High­er orbit satel­lites, like GPS or nuclear com­mand and con­trol satel­lites, are often shield­ed against nuclear blasts and expect­ed to with­stand an EMP attack. Satel­lites in LEO, on the oth­er hand, tend not to have such pro­tec­tions, espe­cial­ly the thou­sands of rel­a­tive­ly small and light microsatel­lites that make up the Star­link clus­ter. But it’s not just Star­link’s satel­lites oper­at­ing in the LEO space. Mil­i­tary satel­lites like high-res­o­lu­tion spy satel­lites and sit­u­a­tion aware­ness satel­lites are also often found in low­er orbits.

    An orbital EMP attack could be a very big deal, mil­i­tar­i­ly speak­ing. So in terms of the pos­si­bil­i­ties, it’s not hard to see why the US gov­ern­ment might be con­cerned about Rus­si­a’s research in this area. But with US intel­li­gence indi­cat­ing that Rus­sia is still devel­op­ing this and actu­al­ly prepar­ing to launch it, the ques­tion of why the head of the US House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee decid­ed to raise pub­lic alarm about this kind of sce­nario remains. Espe­cial­ly since, as we’re also going to see, this pub­lic dis­clo­sure appar­ent­ly enraged intel­li­gence offi­cials because the intel­li­gence was based on extreme­ly sen­si­tive sources that could now be com­pro­mised. What’s the motive here?

    But let’s also not for­get about one of the oth­er major cat­a­stro­phes that will now log­i­cal­ly fol­low any sort of orbital EMP event: Kessler syn­drome. You can’t dis­able all of those LEO satel­lites with­out induc­ing mas­sive num­bers of col­li­sions. Recall how Star­link is pred­i­cat­ed on the idea that its satel­lites won’t have inde­pen­dent orbits but instead will have to be ready to adjust course when nec­es­sar­i­ly. Orbital adjust­ments that won’t be an option after an EMP fries the satel­lites hard­ware. Inter­est­ing­ly, we see an oblique ref­er­ence to Kessler syn­drome from one of the unnamed US offi­cials quot­ed in the fol­low­ing CNN piece, who points out how, “It’s not a new con­cept and, as a con­cept, dates back to the late Cold War....the big fear with any even­tu­al EMP device in orbit [is] it might ren­der large por­tions of par­tic­u­lar orbits unus­able” by cre­at­ing a mine­field of dis­abled satel­lites that “would then prove dan­ger­ous to any new satel­lites we might try to put up to replace or repair the exist­ing satel­lites.” This offi­cial did­n’t use the term Kessler syn­drome, but that’s what they were describ­ing.

    Will Rus­sia be will­ing to use an orbital EMP that could induce a Kessler syn­drome sce­nario? Pre­sum­ably only as a last resort since Kessler syn­drome could impact the satel­lites of Rus­sia and its allies too. But with Star­link only set to grow in scope (don’t for­get it’s not even close to its goals of 42k satel­lites), it’s not hard to imag­ine Rus­sia real­ly is work­ing on such a device. After, as that unnamed US offi­cial also indi­cate, this is a long-known form of nuclear attack that dates back to the Cold War. Of course, one major dif­fer­ence between the Cold War and today is the sheer vol­ume of satel­lites in LEO, which is only poised to explode in com­ing years. Star­link did­n’t exist even a decade ago, not all its com­peti­tors to come. The risk of Kessler syn­drome is only grow­ing.

    And that brings us to anoth­er very fas­ci­nat­ing angle about this whole uproar over the pos­si­bil­i­ty of orbital EMP attacks. Because when the US was look­ing into this pos­si­bil­i­ty a decade ago, the focus appeared to be less on Kessler syn­drome and more on anoth­er con­se­quence of any sort of orbital nuclear event. Radi­a­tion that lingers in orbit, poten­tial­ly dam­ag­ing satel­lites much like the debris of Kessler syn­drome. While radi­a­tion from high-earth orbits tends to dis­si­pate with­in days, LEOs are par­tic­u­lar­ly vul­ner­a­ble to lin­ger­ing radi­a­tion that can last for years. But US researchers had a rather exot­ic tool was pro­posed as a pos­si­ble solu­tion: HAARP. Yep, the High Fre­quen­cy Active Auro­ral Research Pro­gram (HAARP) up in Alas­ka was pro­posed as a means of knock­ing the LEO radi­a­tion out of orbit as a kind of post-nuclear atmos­pher­ic scrub­bing ser­vice.

    That’s all part of the fas­ci­nat­ing con­text around what is still kind of a mys­tery: why did the chair of the House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee risk a high­ly sen­si­tive source to make this sto­ry pub­lic? We don’t know. But we can be pret­ty sure it has a lot to do with the incred­i­ble orbital risk cre­at­ed by the US’s deci­sion to allow for the cre­ation of a mil­i­ta­rized Star­link satel­lite con­stel­la­tion that did­n’t exist a decade ago:

    CNN

    Exclu­sive: Rus­sia attempt­ing to devel­op nuclear space weapon to destroy satel­lites with mas­sive ener­gy wave, sources famil­iar with intel say

    By Katie Bo Lil­lis, Jim Sciut­to, Kristin Fish­er and Natasha Bertrand, CNN
    Updat­ed 7:57 AM EST, Sat Feb­ru­ary 17, 2024

    CNN — Rus­sia is try­ing to devel­op a nuclear space weapon that would destroy satel­lites by cre­at­ing a mas­sive ener­gy wave when det­o­nat­ed, poten­tial­ly crip­pling a vast swath of the com­mer­cial and gov­ern­ment satel­lites that the world below depends on to talk on cell phones, pay bills, and surf the inter­net, accord­ing to three sources famil­iar with US intel­li­gence about the weapon.

    ...

    Repub­li­can Rep. Mike Turn­er of Ohio, the chair of the House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee, set off a fren­zy in Wash­ing­ton on Wednes­day when he issued a state­ment say­ing his pan­el “had infor­ma­tion con­cern­ing a seri­ous nation­al secu­ri­ty threat.” By Fri­day, Pres­i­dent Joe Biden had pub­licly con­firmed that Turn­er was refer­ring to a new Russ­ian nuclear anti-satel­lite capa­bil­i­ty — but offi­cials have stead­fast­ly refused to dis­cuss it fur­ther, cit­ing the high­ly clas­si­fied nature of the intel­li­gence.

    The weapon is still under devel­op­ment and is not yet in orbit, Biden admin­is­tra­tion offi­cials have empha­sized pub­licly. But if used, offi­cials say, it would cross a dan­ger­ous rubi­con in the his­to­ry of nuclear weapons and could cause extreme dis­rup­tions to every­day life in ways that are dif­fi­cult to pre­dict.

    This kind of new weapon — known gen­er­al­ly by mil­i­tary space experts as a nuclear EMP — would cre­ate a pulse of elec­tro­mag­net­ic ener­gy and a flood of high­ly charged par­ti­cles that would tear through space to dis­rupt oth­er satel­lites wing­ing around Earth.

    ...

    And there has been a stream of intel­li­gence report­ing in recent months relat­ed specif­i­cal­ly to Russia’s efforts to devel­op nuclear-pow­ered anti-satel­lite capa­bil­i­ties, accord­ing to one defense offi­cial.

    But Rus­sia has recent­ly made progress in its efforts to devel­op a nuclear EMP — a relat­ed but far more alarm­ing tech­nol­o­gy.

    ...

    The intel­li­gence com­mu­ni­ty, Biden said, had “found out there was a capac­i­ty to launch a sys­tem into space that could the­o­ret­i­cal­ly do some­thing that was dam­ag­ing” but that it “hadn’t hap­pened yet.”

    “It’s not a new con­cept and, as a con­cept, dates back to the late Cold War,” said one US offi­cial. But, they said, “the big fear with any even­tu­al EMP device in orbit [is] it might ren­der large por­tions of par­tic­u­lar orbits unus­able” by cre­at­ing a mine­field of dis­abled satel­lites that “would then prove dan­ger­ous to any new satel­lites we might try to put up to replace or repair the exist­ing satel­lites.”

    ...

    It was not imme­di­ate­ly clear whether the device as designed could impact GPS and nuclear com­mand and con­trol satel­lites, which oper­ate in a high­er orbit than the vast con­stel­la­tion of com­mer­cial and gov­ern­ment satel­lites whizzing through low-Earth orbit. Those larg­er satel­lites are designed to be impreg­nable to a nuclear blast, but a for­mer top space offi­cial at the Pen­ta­gon told CNN that “they could be vul­ner­a­ble” depend­ing on how close they were to the EMP, how old they are and how big the blast.

    ‘Last-ditch weapon’

    Experts say this kind of weapon could have the poten­tial to wipe out mega con­stel­la­tions of small satel­lites, like SpaceX’s Star­link, which has been suc­cess­ful­ly used by Ukraine in its ongo­ing war with Rus­sia.

    This would almost cer­tain­ly be “a last-ditch weapon” for Rus­sia, the US offi­cial and oth­er sources said — because it would do the same dam­age to what­ev­er Russ­ian satel­lites were also in the area.

    ...

    Sev­er­al sources famil­iar with the mat­ter said that the expo­sure of the intel­li­gence was extreme­ly dam­ag­ing because the source was incred­i­bly sen­si­tive. Accord­ing to those sources, the intel­li­gence com­mu­ni­ty is now scram­bling to fig­ure out how to pre­serve its access.

    Biden admin­is­tra­tion offi­cials con­tend that if Rus­sia were to field a nuclear EMP, it would be the first-ever vio­la­tion of the Out­er Space Treaty of 1967, which bans sta­tion­ing weapons of mass destruc­tion in out­er space.

    ...

    Rus­sia has with­drawn from sev­er­al arms con­trol treaties in recent years, leav­ing the post-Cold War arms con­trol archi­tec­ture all but gut­ted.

    ———-

    “Exclu­sive: Rus­sia attempt­ing to devel­op nuclear space weapon to destroy satel­lites with mas­sive ener­gy wave, sources famil­iar with intel say” By Katie Bo Lil­lis, Jim Sciut­to, Kristin Fish­er and Natasha Bertrand; CNN; 02/17/2024

    “This kind of new weapon — known gen­er­al­ly by mil­i­tary space experts as a nuclear EMP — would cre­ate a pulse of elec­tro­mag­net­ic ener­gy and a flood of high­ly charged par­ti­cles that would tear through space to dis­rupt oth­er satel­lites wing­ing around Earth.”

    An orbital EMP. That appears to be the gen­er­al design of the new Russ­ian super-weapon that had Repub­li­can Rep. Mike Turn­er of Ohio, the chair of the House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee, whipped up into such a state of alarm. A weapon still under devel­op­ment. So why the imme­di­ate alarm? That’s unclear, but it’s pret­ty obvi­ous which part of the US’s orbital infra­struc­ture Rep Turn­er and oth­ers are going to be most con­cerned about: the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satel­lites. As experts warn, this kind of EMP attack has the poten­tial to wipe out the entire mega-clus­ter. And not just dis­able the clus­ter but also cre­ate a mine­field of dis­abled satel­lites “would then prove dan­ger­ous to any new satel­lites we might try to put up to replace or repair the exist­ing satel­lites.” In oth­er words, Kessler syn­drome.

    But this kind of threat also isn’t new and Rus­si­a’s report­ed device is still under devel­op­ment. Beyond that, intel­li­gence offi­cials are appar­ent­ly livid over the sto­ry because this intel­li­gence was based on a high­ly sen­si­tive source. So what prompt­ed the chair of the House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee to make this big pub­lic uproar? That’s still a mys­tery:

    ...
    The weapon is still under devel­op­ment and is not yet in orbit, Biden admin­is­tra­tion offi­cials have empha­sized pub­licly. But if used, offi­cials say, it would cross a dan­ger­ous rubi­con in the his­to­ry of nuclear weapons and could cause extreme dis­rup­tions to every­day life in ways that are dif­fi­cult to pre­dict.

    ...

    “It’s not a new con­cept and, as a con­cept, dates back to the late Cold War,” said one US offi­cial. But, they said, “the big fear with any even­tu­al EMP device in orbit [is] it might ren­der large por­tions of par­tic­u­lar orbits unus­able” by cre­at­ing a mine­field of dis­abled satel­lites that “would then prove dan­ger­ous to any new satel­lites we might try to put up to replace or repair the exist­ing satel­lites.”

    ...

    Experts say this kind of weapon could have the poten­tial to wipe out mega con­stel­la­tions of small satel­lites, like SpaceX’s Star­link, which has been suc­cess­ful­ly used by Ukraine in its ongo­ing war with Rus­sia.

    ...

    Sev­er­al sources famil­iar with the mat­ter said that the expo­sure of the intel­li­gence was extreme­ly dam­ag­ing because the source was incred­i­bly sen­si­tive. Accord­ing to those sources, the intel­li­gence com­mu­ni­ty is now scram­bling to fig­ure out how to pre­serve its access.
    ...

    Also note which satel­lites are NOT at the same kind of risk from an EMP attack: the high­er-orbit satel­lites like GPS or nuclear com­mand and con­trol satel­lites, which are designed to with­stand a nuclear blast. This is real­ly a LEO-tar­get­ing weapon. Of course, if Kessler syn­drome is some­how induced in low­er orbits, that could poten­tial­ly impact satel­lites in high­er orbit as debris is cre­at­ed and there may not be any way to safe­ly launch replace­ments for fail­ing high-orbit satel­lites. But in terms of imme­di­ate dan­ger, it’s pos­si­ble this EMP weapon could be used with­out, for exam­ple, dis­abling GPS ser­vices. Hope­ful­ly:

    ...
    It was not imme­di­ate­ly clear whether the device as designed could impact GPS and nuclear com­mand and con­trol satel­lites, which oper­ate in a high­er orbit than the vast con­stel­la­tion of com­mer­cial and gov­ern­ment satel­lites whizzing through low-Earth orbit. Those larg­er satel­lites are designed to be impreg­nable to a nuclear blast, but a for­mer top space offi­cial at the Pen­ta­gon told CNN that “they could be vul­ner­a­ble” depend­ing on how close they were to the EMP, how old they are and how big the blast.
    ...

    So is Rus­sia plan­ning on with­draw­ing from the Out­er Space Treaty of 1967 before it launch­es this thing? Maybe, but this is prob­a­bly a good time to recall how Pres­i­dent Trump uni­lat­er­al­ly with­drew from the INF treaty in 2019 and then in Novem­ber of 2020 also with­drew the US from the Open Skies treaty. Also note that when Rus­sia with­drew from the Com­pre­hen­sive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) back in Novem­ber of 2023, that was a treaty the US nev­er rat­i­fied. There’s been quite a few changes to the glob­al nuclear sta­tus quo late­ly and it’s not just Rus­sia doing the chang­ing:

    ...
    Biden admin­is­tra­tion offi­cials con­tend that if Rus­sia were to field a nuclear EMP, it would be the first-ever vio­la­tion of the Out­er Space Treaty of 1967, which bans sta­tion­ing weapons of mass destruc­tion in out­er space.

    ...

    Rus­sia has with­drawn from sev­er­al arms con­trol treaties in recent years, leav­ing the post-Cold War arms con­trol archi­tec­ture all but gut­ted.
    ...

    Giv­en all the appar­ent alarm over these devel­op­ments, one might arrive at the con­clu­sion that this is a new threat the US has­n’t faced before. But, of course, the pos­si­bil­i­ty of space-based EMP attacks was part of Cold War and some­thing the US mil­i­tary has stud­ied for decades. What’s new in this sit­u­a­tion is the pres­ence of the Star­link satel­lite clus­ter that did­n’t exist a decade ago. A clus­ter increas­ing­ly being used in mil­i­tary con­texts against Rus­sia. That’s the big orbital devel­op­ment in recent years. And let’s also not for­get how Star­link is new in the sense that it does­n’t even both­er to put all its satel­lites into inde­pen­dent orbits but instead relies on real-time orbital adjust­ments to avoid col­li­sions...adjust­ments that obvi­ous­ly would­n’t hap­pen in the event of an EMP attack that fries the elec­tron­ics. An EMP attack that dis­ables Star­link — or any attack that dis­ables Star­link for that mat­ter — real­ly could lead to a Kessler syn­drome sce­nario sim­ply as a result of dis­abling those orbital adjust­ment ser­vices that are now nec­es­sary thanks to the den­si­ty of objects in this space.

    But why the appar­ent sense of urgency on this mat­ter? Is Rus­sia plan­ning on launch­ing such a device soon? Yep, and it could hap­pen as soon as this year. At least that’s what we were hear­ing from more unnamed US offi­cials in reports this week. Rus­sia denies work­ing on any such device at all. And as the fol­low­ing Reuters arti­cle asks, it’s unclear why Rus­sia would need to rely on some­thing like a space EMP, risk­ing set­ting off a nuclear space race, when it had plen­ty of con­ven­tion­al means of dis­abling low earth orbit satel­lites already. But, again, that just under­scores the poten­tial rel­e­vance of Star­link in this mat­ter. One of the major sell­ing points of Star­link is its abil­i­ty to con­tin­ue oper­at­ing even if large num­bers of indi­vid­ual satel­lites are tak­en down. Per­haps con­ven­tion­al means of dis­abling satel­lites aren’t good enough in the age of microsatel­lites clus­ters and we’re look­ing at the response:

    Reuters

    Nukes in space: What have Rus­sia and the Unit­ed States said?

    By Guy Faulcon­bridge and Arshad Mohammed
    Feb­ru­ary 21, 2024 1:16 AM CST
    Updat­ed

    MOSCOW/WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) — Uniden­ti­fied sources in the Unit­ed States say Rus­sia is devel­op­ing a space-based anti-satel­lite nuclear weapon but Pres­i­dent Vladimir Putin said he oppos­es nuclear weapons in space and Moscow has flat­ly denied the U.S. asser­tions.

    Who has said what and what would such a weapon mean?

    WHAT DOES THE U.S. SAY?

    The Unit­ed States believes Rus­sia is devel­op­ing a space-based anti-satel­lite nuclear weapon whose det­o­na­tion could dis­rupt every­thing from mil­i­tary com­mu­ni­ca­tions to phone-based ride ser­vices, a source famil­iar with the mat­ter said on Tues­day.

    The source, who spoke on con­di­tion of anonymi­ty, said it was his under­stand­ing the sys­tem would involve a nuclear explo­sive device placed into orbit.

    ...

    The New York Times report­ed on Sat­ur­day, with­out cit­ing sources, that in recent weeks a warn­ing has cir­cu­lat­ed from Amer­i­ca’s spy agen­cies that Rus­sia may be plan­ning a new secret mil­i­tary satel­lite launch and that the key ques­tion was whether it would use it to put an actu­al nuclear weapon into space.

    Bloomberg on Tues­day report­ed Rus­sia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock war­head into space as ear­ly as this year. It also cit­ed unnamed sources as say­ing the Unit­ed States believes Rus­sia does not plan to det­o­nate a device but that there was risk of an acci­den­tal explo­sion, dis­abling scores of satel­lites.

    ...

    WHAT DID MOSCOW SAY?

    “Our posi­tion is clear and trans­par­ent: We have always been cat­e­gor­i­cal­ly against and are now against the deploy­ment of nuclear weapons in space,” Putin told Sergei Shoigu, his defence min­is­ter at a tele­vised meet­ing in the Krem­lin.

    ...

    Com­ment­ing on the weapons in space alle­ga­tions, Shoigu said there were no plans of the kind out­lined by the uniden­ti­fied sources in the Unit­ed States.

    “First­ly, there are no such projects — nuclear weapons in space. Sec­ond­ly, the Unit­ed States knows that this does not exist,” Shoigu told Putin.

    He accused the White House of try­ing to scare U.S. law­mak­ers into allo­cat­ing more funds for Ukraine as part of Wash­ing­ton’s plan to inflict what he said was a strate­gic defeat on Rus­sia.

    ...

    WHAT WOULD NUKES IN SPACE MEAN?

    ...

    But it is unclear why Rus­sia would need to use nuclear weapons to destroy a satel­lite, when con­ven­tion­al weapons could do the job, or whether the Unit­ed States has been devel­op­ing nuclear capa­bil­i­ties in space.

    If Rus­sia did devel­op such a weapon, then the Unit­ed States would be forced to do some­thing sim­i­lar and per­haps Chi­na too — and so there would be a risk of some sort of nuclear space race.

    Rus­sia and the Unit­ed States togeth­er hold about 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, and both have advanced mil­i­tary satel­lites orbit­ing the Earth.

    In the ear­ly years of the Cold War, after Rus­sia leaped ahead in the space race and both sides devel­oped inter­con­ti­nen­tal bal­lis­tic mis­siles, the West pro­posed a treaty to out­law nuclear weapons in space. The even­tu­al result was the 1967 Out­er Space Treaty.

    The Unit­ed States casts Rus­sia and Chi­na as its biggest nation-state com­peti­tors and says both are devel­op­ing a range of new weapons sys­tems, includ­ing nuclear, cyber and space capa­bil­i­ties.

    Rus­sia says the post-Cold War dom­i­nance of the Unit­ed States is crum­bling and that Wash­ing­ton has for years sown chaos across the plan­et while ignor­ing the inter­ests of oth­er pow­ers. Moscow says the Unit­ed States too is devel­op­ing a host of new weapons.

    ———-

    “Nukes in space: What have Rus­sia and the Unit­ed States said?” by Guy Faulcon­bridge and Arshad Mohammed; Reuters; 02/21/2024

    “Bloomberg on Tues­day report­ed Rus­sia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock war­head into space as ear­ly as this year. It also cit­ed unnamed sources as say­ing the Unit­ed States believes Rus­sia does not plan to det­o­nate a device but that there was risk of an acci­den­tal explo­sion, dis­abling scores of satel­lites.”

    The device could be launched as soon as this year. That’s what we’re hear­ing from more anony­mous sources, which is pre­sum­ably the basis for the appar­ent urgency. And while the US does­n’t believe Rus­sia has plans to detone such a device, it’s the risk of an acci­dent that has them con­cerned. Rus­sia, in turn, denies all reports of work­ing on any such device at all.

    But then we get this impor­tant ques­tion raised in the arti­cle: why would such a device be need­ed at all when Rus­sia pre­sum­ably has plen­ty of con­ven­tion­al means of dis­abling LEO satel­lites. And why risk set­ting off some sort of nuclear space race with the US and Chi­na? It’s a reminder that this is the kind of sto­ry the US, or Chi­na, could use as a pre­text for launch­ing space nukes of their own, whether the sto­ry is based on real intel­li­gence or not. But also keep in mind that the emer­gence of Star­link real­ly has changed the game in terms of orbital mil­i­tary games­man­ship. Star­link’s strate­gic val­ue is in how it can still work even if large num­bers of indi­vid­ual satel­lites are dis­abled. An orbital EMP device might be deemed mil­i­tar­i­ly nec­es­sary in that case if the whole clus­ter needs to be shut down some­how. And, in turn, an orbital EMP device per­haps would­n’t be seen as nec­es­sary had the US not uni­lat­er­al­ly allowed for one of its key defense con­trac­tors, Space X, to cre­ate Star­link in the first place:

    ...
    But it is unclear why Rus­sia would need to use nuclear weapons to destroy a satel­lite, when con­ven­tion­al weapons could do the job, or whether the Unit­ed States has been devel­op­ing nuclear capa­bil­i­ties in space.

    If Rus­sia did devel­op such a weapon, then the Unit­ed States would be forced to do some­thing sim­i­lar and per­haps Chi­na too — and so there would be a risk of some sort of nuclear space race.
    ...

    Are we look­ing at a real sto­ry? A sto­ry about the con­se­quences of Star­link and the mil­i­tary advan­tages it promis­es upset­ting the orbital bal­ance enough to pro­voke Russ­ian space nukes? Or are we look­ing at anoth­er attempt to hype up the ten­sions or maybe even give the US an excuse to launch a counter space-nuke of its own? Time will tell as always. But it’s not like orbital EMPs are a new kind of dan­ger. If we see a nuclear space race emerge, it’s some­thing the US has spent a lot time think­ing about already. Many decades. With decades of research already under its belt.

    So, to get an idea of the US’s think­ing on these mat­ters pre-Star­link, here’s a 2014 piece in For­eign Pol­i­cy dis­cussing exact­ly these con­cerns. Con­cerns pri­mar­i­ly focused on LEO satel­lites since, as the arti­cle notes, most high-orbit satel­lites — like GPS or nuclear com­mand and con­trol satel­lites — have been hard­ened against EMP attacks. It’s the LEO satel­lites that are pri­mar­i­ly at risk. And while hard­en­ing LEO satel­lites is an option, it’s an expen­sive one that makes those satel­lites larg­er, heav­ier, and there­fore more expen­sive to pro­duce and launch.

    As the arti­cle also notes, the con­se­quences of an EMP attack would­n’t nec­es­sar­i­ly just be imme­di­ate. Unlike high-orbits, where radi­a­tion tends to dis­si­pate with­in days, low­er orbits can retain that radi­a­tion in orbit for years. But there’s one very fas­ci­nat­ing poten­tial solu­tion for at least remov­ing the radi­a­tion that would be stuck in low orbit: HAARP. Yes, the US’s HAARP facil­i­ty up in Alas­ka could poten­tial­ly be used to effec­tive­ly knock the radi­a­tion in low orbit back down to earth:

    For­eign Pol­i­cy

    Mil­i­tary Looks to Shield Its Satel­lites from Elec­tro­mag­net­ic Attacks

    Elec­tro­mag­net­ic pulse attacks are one of those things that keep some mil­i­tary offi­cials wide awake at night — and put oth­ers sound­ly asleep. It all depends on who you’re talk­ing about. For the for­mer, includ­ing a num­ber of doom­say­ers, mis­sile-defense boost­ers, and promi­nent politi­cos, the risk is that a rogue state could emit a blast ...

    By Robert Beck­husen, War Is Bor­ing
    Jan­u­ary 3, 2014, 5:44 PM

    Elec­tro­mag­net­ic pulse attacks are one of those things that keep some mil­i­tary offi­cials wide awake at night — and put oth­ers sound­ly asleep. It all depends on who you’re talk­ing about.

    ...

    For skep­tics — and many sci­en­tists — it’s all an overblown the­o­ry con­tain­ing loads of tech­ni­cal and prac­ti­cal prob­lems. More real­is­ti­cal­ly, it’d be lights out when we’re even­tu­al­ly hit by a rare and exceed­ing­ly pow­er­ful solar storm.

    But con­cerns about weaponized EMP per­sist. The Defense Threat Reduc­tion Agency, a Pen­ta­gon body focused on coun­ter­ing threats from nuclear weapons, has put out the call for new stud­ies into the phe­nom­e­non, accord­ing to a notice from the agency post­ed in Decem­ber. Specif­i­cal­ly, DTRA wants to research “high-alti­tude weapons elec­tro­mag­net­ic pulse effects mod­el­ing” for satel­lites.

    The ulti­mate goal is to come up with a uni­form mil­i­tary stan­dard for EMP effects on satel­lites, which could lat­er be used to hard­en them against an attack. The term “effects mod­el­ing” in the notice refers to lab­o­ra­to­ry sim­u­la­tions. DTRA has also stressed it’s not try­ing to pre­dict the like­li­hood of an e‑bomb attack, just the expect­ed results of one.

    We have some expe­ri­ence with this — albeit with sev­er­al gaps.

    For one, we do know that satel­lites in low-earth orbit would be in grave dan­ger of get­ting zapped by EMP. Satel­lites at these orbits include ones used for high-res­o­lu­tion imagery, mon­i­tor­ing the weath­erb and han­dling telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions. They also include a large num­ber of mil­i­tary sit­u­a­tion­al aware­ness satel­lites and the Inter­na­tion­al Space Sta­tion.

    ...

    While most low-earth-orbit satel­lites would avoid being imme­di­ate­ly knocked out by an EMP, the pres­ence of radi­a­tion expo­sure over the long term is a “seri­ous long-term haz­ard” that “could seri­ous­ly ham­per any war effort, par­tic­u­lar­ly in remote regions,” the agency not­ed in a 2010 report.

    Lit­tle is known about effects of EMP at high­er alti­tudes, above 370 or so, or below 60 miles. For a bal­lis­tic mis­sile defense sys­tem that suc­cess­ful­ly strikes and det­o­nates a nuclear ICBM at high alti­tudes, “strate­gies may risk being designed on the basis of inap­pro­pri­ate lev­els of nuclear effects, at least for det­o­na­tions in the upper half of the mid-course bat­tle space,” the report added.

    The good news is that the agency doesn’t think mid- and high-earth orbit satel­lites are at great risk for any dam­age beyond a slight­ly short­er lifes­pan. “Satel­lites in MEO or GEO are not at risk to imme­di­ate loss from radi­a­tion dam­age result­ing from a cred­i­ble EMP attack any­where on Earth,” the agency con­clud­ed.

    At high orbits, spy satel­lites from the Nation­al Recon­nais­sance Office, mil­i­tary com­mu­ni­ca­tions satel­lites, and bal­lis­tic mis­sile detec­tors — plus the Glob­al Posi­tion­ing Sys­tem — are already heav­i­ly shield­ed from radi­a­tion. Radi­a­tion inject­ed by a weapon at high orbits would also decay with­in days instead of years like in low orbits, less­en­ing the effect fur­ther.

    There are sev­er­al things you could do to make satel­lites more sur­viv­able, though. There’s hard­en­ing and shield­ing, which can add weight and cost — a prob­lem for pri­vate com­pa­nies that own and oper­ate LEO satel­lites joint­ly used by the mil­i­tary. The often-mis­un­der­stood, $250 mil­lion High Fre­quen­cy Active Auro­ral Research Pro­gram (HAARP) is even used by the Air Force to research how to scrub the mag­ne­tos­phere of elec­trons emit­ted by nuclear weapons that could screw up satel­lite tran­sis­tors.

    ...

    ————

    “Mil­i­tary Looks to Shield Its Satel­lites from Elec­tro­mag­net­ic Attacks” By Robert Beck­husen; For­eign Pol­i­cy; 01//3/2014

    “While most low-earth-orbit satel­lites would avoid being imme­di­ate­ly knocked out by an EMP, the pres­ence of radi­a­tion expo­sure over the long term is a “seri­ous long-term haz­ard” that “could seri­ous­ly ham­per any war effort, par­tic­u­lar­ly in remote regions,” the agency not­ed in a 2010 report.”

    As that 2010 US gov­ern­ment report reminds us, the threat of an EMP attack on the US’s satel­lites crip­pling US mil­i­tary capa­bil­i­ties is not a new threat. Nor is it the only threat. Recall how solar storms have already knocked out Star­link satel­lites. Which is also a reminder that, should an EMP attack end up dis­abling the Star­link clus­ter, it will be an attack that poten­tial­ly could have been at least par­tial­ly mit­i­gat­ed against if the clus­ter was prop­er­ly pro­tect­ed against the solar storms we know are just a mat­ter of time:

    ...
    For skep­tics — and many sci­en­tists — it’s all an overblown the­o­ry con­tain­ing loads of tech­ni­cal and prac­ti­cal prob­lems. More real­is­ti­cal­ly, it’d be lights out when we’re even­tu­al­ly hit by a rare and exceed­ing­ly pow­er­ful solar storm.
    ...

    Also note how the of mil­i­tary satel­lites that tend to be in low orbit include high-res­o­lu­tion satel­lites and sit­u­a­tion­al aware­ness. In oth­er words, if we do ever see a major dis­rup­tion of LEO satel­lites, the alarm this will induce in gov­ern­ment will be exac­er­bat­ed by the fact that their orbital ‘eyes and ears’ are going to be out of com­mis­sion:

    ...
    But con­cerns about weaponized EMP per­sist. The Defense Threat Reduc­tion Agency, a Pen­ta­gon body focused on coun­ter­ing threats from nuclear weapons, has put out the call for new stud­ies into the phe­nom­e­non, accord­ing to a notice from the agency post­ed in Decem­ber. Specif­i­cal­ly, DTRA wants to research “high-alti­tude weapons elec­tro­mag­net­ic pulse effects mod­el­ing” for satel­lites.

    The ulti­mate goal is to come up with a uni­form mil­i­tary stan­dard for EMP effects on satel­lites, which could lat­er be used to hard­en them against an attack. The term “effects mod­el­ing” in the notice refers to lab­o­ra­to­ry sim­u­la­tions. DTRA has also stressed it’s not try­ing to pre­dict the like­li­hood of an e‑bomb attack, just the expect­ed results of one.

    We have some expe­ri­ence with this — albeit with sev­er­al gaps.

    For one, we do know that satel­lites in low-earth orbit would be in grave dan­ger of get­ting zapped by EMP. Satel­lites at these orbits include ones used for high-res­o­lu­tion imagery, mon­i­tor­ing the weath­erb and han­dling telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions. They also include a large num­ber of mil­i­tary sit­u­a­tion­al aware­ness satel­lites and the Inter­na­tion­al Space Sta­tion.
    ...

    And then we get to this fas­ci­nat­ing detail in this 2014 piece: high­er-orbit satel­lites might still be at risk of short­ened lifes­pans due to the ele­vat­ed lev­els of radi­a­tion in orbit. But it’s the low­er orbits where the radi­a­tion will be far more intense. And yet, there’s a poten­tial solu­tion for scrub­bing that radi­a­tion out of low­er orbits: the HAARP array, which can poten­tial­ly be used to ‘scrub the mag­ne­tos­phere’:

    ...
    Lit­tle is known about effects of EMP at high­er alti­tudes, above 370 or so, or below 60 miles. For a bal­lis­tic mis­sile defense sys­tem that suc­cess­ful­ly strikes and det­o­nates a nuclear ICBM at high alti­tudes, “strate­gies may risk being designed on the basis of inap­pro­pri­ate lev­els of nuclear effects, at least for det­o­na­tions in the upper half of the mid-course bat­tle space,” the report added.

    ...

    At high orbits, spy satel­lites from the Nation­al Recon­nais­sance Office, mil­i­tary com­mu­ni­ca­tions satel­lites, and bal­lis­tic mis­sile detec­tors — plus the Glob­al Posi­tion­ing Sys­tem — are already heav­i­ly shield­ed from radi­a­tion. Radi­a­tion inject­ed by a weapon at high orbits would also decay with­in days instead of years like in low orbits, less­en­ing the effect fur­ther.

    There are sev­er­al things you could do to make satel­lites more sur­viv­able, though. There’s hard­en­ing and shield­ing, which can add weight and cost — a prob­lem for pri­vate com­pa­nies that own and oper­ate LEO satel­lites joint­ly used by the mil­i­tary. The often-mis­un­der­stood, $250 mil­lion High Fre­quen­cy Active Auro­ral Research Pro­gram (HAARP) is even used by the Air Force to research how to scrub the mag­ne­tos­phere of elec­trons emit­ted by nuclear weapons that could screw up satel­lite tran­sis­tors.
    ...

    Pret­ty neat if it works. Neat, although unless HAARP can also some­how knock all the shrap­nel and oth­er debris that would get cre­at­ed by a Kessler syn­drome event, it’s not real­ly going to address the full prob­lem. But still, pret­ty neat. And as the fol­low­ing 2009 piece in Wired describes, the orig­i­nal vision for HAARP includ­ed a lot more than just scrub­bing the skies of post-nuclear radi­a­tion. The orig­i­nal sales pitch to the US gov­ern­ment includ­ed the promise that HAARP would be able to pump the atmos­phere with enough radi­a­tion that it could actu­al­ly knock out incom­ing Sovi­et ICBMs. It does­n’t sound like those capa­bil­i­ties were ever demon­strat­ed. But scrub­bing the skies of radi­a­tion fol­low­ing a nuclear orbital event does appear to be a use case they saw as plau­si­ble:

    Wired

    Strange New Air Force Facil­i­ty Ener­gizes Ionos­phere, Fans Con­spir­a­cy Flames

    The shock­ing thing about Haarp isn’t that it’s a boon­dog­gle (it’s actu­al­ly pret­ty worth­while) or that it was spawned by a mil­i­tary-indus­tri­al-petro­chem­i­cal-polit­i­cal com­plex (a hal­lowed gov­ern­ment tra­di­tion). It’s that, all too often, this is the way big sci­ence gets done in the US.

    Noah Shacht­man
    Busi­ness
    Jul 20, 2009 12:00 PM

    Todd Ped­er­sen had to hustle—the sky was sched­uled to start glow­ing soon, and he did­n’t want to miss it. It was just before sun­set, a cold Feb­ru­ary evening in deep-woods Alas­ka, and the broad-shoul­dered US Air Force physi­cist was scram­bling across the snow in his orange down par­ka and fur-lined bomber hat. Grab­bing cables and elec­tron­ics, he rushed to assem­ble a jury-rigged tele­scope atop a crude wood­en plat­form.

    ...

    As dark­ness closed in, Ped­er­sen tried to get the sec­ond imager working—with no luck—and the first one began snap­ping pic­tures. A few min­utes before sev­en, throb­bing arcs of green and red light began to form on his mon­i­tor, even­tu­al­ly coa­lesc­ing into an egg shape. Oth­er shards of light shim­mered, gath­ered into a jagged ring, and spun around the oval cen­ter. “This is real­ly good stuff,” Ped­er­sen cooed. This was­n’t just anoth­er auro­ra bore­alis trig­gered by solar winds; this one Ped­er­sen made him­self. He did it with the High Fre­quen­cy Active Auro­ral Research Pro­gram (Haarp): a $250 mil­lion facil­i­ty with a 30-acre array of anten­nas capa­ble of spew­ing 3.6 megawatts of ener­gy into the mys­te­ri­ous plas­ma of the ionos­phere.

    Bring­ing Haarp to fruition was, well, com­pli­cat­ed. A group of sci­en­tists had to cozy up to a US sen­a­tor, cut deals with an oil com­pa­ny, and con­vince the Pen­ta­gon that the project might rev­o­lu­tion­ize war. Oh, and along the way they sparked enough con­spir­a­cy the­o­ries to make the place sound like an arc­tic Area 51.

    ...

    In 1901, Gugliel­mo Mar­coni received a sim­ple radio sig­nal sent from across the Atlantic Ocean—dot-dot-dot, again and again, the let­ter S repeat­ed in Morse code. Lead­ing sci­en­tists of the day had said such a trans­mis­sion was impos­si­ble: Earth­’s sur­face is curved, and radio waves trav­el in straight lines. The dots should have shot out into space. Instead, they trav­eled from Corn­wall, Eng­land, to a 500-foot anten­na Mar­coni hung from a kite in New­found­land. A pre­vi­ous­ly unknown, elec­tro­mag­net­i­cal­ly charged lay­er of the atmos­phere was reflect­ing the sig­nal back down to earth.

    At any giv­en moment, the sun is bom­bard­ing our plan­et with 170 bil­lion megawatts of ultra­vi­o­let, x‑ray, and oth­er radi­a­tion. Those waves col­lide with atoms of air—nitrogen, oxy­gen, and so on—stripping away elec­trons like spring rain erod­ing a snow­bank. The result: pos­i­tive­ly charged ions drift­ing free. At high alti­tudes, those ions are far enough apart that it can take hours for them to bind with a free elec­tron. Called the ionos­phere, these undu­lat­ing bands of charged par­ti­cles stretch from 50 to 500 miles above the earth—too high for weath­er bal­loons and, in large part, too low for satel­lites. Researchers who study it jok­ing­ly call it the ignoros­phere.

    ...

    But by the 1980s, US atmos­pher­ic radio sci­ence had dead-end­ed. “We had become a very small field, and we want­ed to try to revive it,” says Kon­stant Papadopou­los, a plas­ma and space physi­cist at the Uni­ver­si­ty of Mary­land. “We need­ed a mod­ern facil­i­ty.”

    Papadopou­los, now a white-haired, deeply tanned 70-year-old who goes by the name Den­nis, had worked on and off with the gov­ern­ment since he left his native Athens in the 1960s. He knew his way around the fed­er­al sci­ence-fund­ing machine. Many of his fel­low ionos­pherists had sim­i­lar expe­ri­ence sway­ing the folks with fat wal­lets. So this loose band of radio sci­en­tists began a cam­paign of per­sua­sion in sup­port of a new research cen­ter. “We’ll sell it,” Papadopou­los remem­bers think­ing. “We’ll sell it in good faith, but we’ll sell it.”

    One of the first ideas came mid-decade from Bernard East­lund, a physi­cist work­ing for oil-and-gas con­glom­er­ate Atlantic Rich­field. Arco had the rights to tril­lions of cubic feet of nat­ur­al gas under Alaska’s North Slope. The prob­lem had always been how to get that gas to the port at Valdez. East­lund had a bet­ter idea: Use the gas onsite to fuel a giant ionos­pher­ic heater. Such a facil­i­ty, he wrote in a series of patents, could fry Sovi­et mis­siles in mid­flight or maybe even nudge cyclones and oth­er extreme weath­er toward ene­mies. That’s right: weaponized hur­ri­canes.

    Arco’s exec­u­tives pre­sent­ed the idea to Simon Ramo, one of the god­fa­thers of the US inter­con­ti­nen­tal bal­lis­tic mis­sile pro­gram. Ramo passed it on to the under sec­re­tary of defense, who in turn gave it to the Pen­tagon’s advanced research arm, Darpa, and the DOD’s secre­tive sci­ence advi­so­ry board, code-named Jason. Tony Teth­er, direc­tor of Darpa’s strate­gic tech­nol­o­gy office, gave Arco a con­tract to con­duct a fea­si­bil­i­ty study. Arco brought on board none oth­er than Den­nis Papadopou­los as a con­sul­tant.

    Papadopou­los was­n’t very impressed. East­lund’s tricks would­n’t work even if the site were in the right place along Earth­’s mag­net­ic field—which it was­n’t. But the ad hoc coali­tion of radio sci­en­tists did like the idea of set­ting up a new heater in Alas­ka. In those upper lat­i­tudes, the ionos­phere inter­sects with Earth­’s mag­net­ic field and becomes sci­en­tif­i­cal­ly inter­est­ing.

    Luck­i­ly, the senior sen­a­tor from Alas­ka, Ted Stevens, enjoyed a rep­u­ta­tion for insert­ing projects into the fed­er­al bud­get to ben­e­fit his home state, most noto­ri­ous­ly a $223 mil­lion bridge from the town of Ketchikan to, well, not much of any­place. In 1988, the researchers sat down with Stevens and assured him that an ionos­pher­ic heater would be a bona fide sci­en­tif­ic mar­vel and a guar­an­teed job cre­ator, and it could be built for a mere $30 mil­lion. “He pro­vid­ed some con­gres­sion­al mon­ey, some pork mon­ey,” Papadopou­los says. “It was much less than the bridge to nowhere.” Just like that, the Pen­ta­gon had $10 mil­lion for ionos­pher­ic heater research.

    Now the sci­en­tists had some start­up cash, but they also need­ed hardware—and for that, they had to enlist the mil­i­tary. In a series of meet­ings in the win­ter of 1989–90, the field­’s lead­ing lights, includ­ing Papadopou­los, pitched the Navy and the Air Force. Haarp, they assert­ed, could lead to “sig­nif­i­cant oper­a­tional capa­bil­i­ties.” They’d build a giant phased anten­na array that would aim a fine­ly tuned beam of high- fre­quen­cy radio waves into the sky. The beam would excite elec­trons in the ionos­phere, alter­ing that spot’s con­duc­tiv­i­ty and induc­ing it to emit its own extreme­ly low fre­quen­cy waves, which could the­o­ret­i­cal­ly pen­e­trate the earth­’s sur­face to reveal hid­den bunkers or be used to con­tact deeply sub­merged sub­marines.

    That last app caught the mil­i­tary’s atten­tion. Com­mu­ni­cat­ing with subs thou­sands of miles away, under thou­sands of feet of ocean, requires ultralow fre­quen­cies, and that requires whomp­ing-big anten­nas. To do it, the Navy had built an array in the upper Mid­west that trans­mits its sig­nal through bedrock, but its con­struc­tion required raz­ing 84 miles’ worth of hun­dred-foot-wide path through wilder­ness, includ­ing a nation­al for­est. It drove local envi­ron­men­tal­ists crazy. But who would protest an ephemer­al anten­na in the sky?

    ...

    In 1992, the Navy hand­ed out a $21.6 mil­lion con­tract. The deal did­n’t go to an estab­lished engi­neer­ing out­fit or defense firm. It went, instead, to Arco, for which Papadopou­los was a con­sul­tant.

    For more than a year, plan­ning pro­ceed­ed large­ly out of pub­lic view. Then, in 1993, an Anchor­age teach­ers’ union rep named Nick Begich—son of one of Alaska’s most impor­tant polit­i­cal families—found a notice about Haarp in the Aus­tralian con­spir­a­cy mag­a­zine Nexus.

    When Begich was 13, a Cess­na car­ry­ing his father, a Con­gres­sion­al rep­re­sen­ta­tive, dis­ap­peared. Nei­ther the plane nor its pas­sen­gers were ever recov­ered. Over the years, Begich became obsessed with uncov­er­ing mys­ter­ies. Between gigs as a gemol­o­gist, min­er, school super­vi­sor, and Chick­aloon trib­al admin­is­tra­tor, he reg­u­lar­ly lec­tured on gov­ern­ment mind-con­trol tech­nol­o­gy. So you can imag­ine his reac­tion when he began look­ing into Haarp: the weath­er-con­trol patents, the Pen­ta­gon pro­pos­als for long-range spy­ing, the oil com­pa­ny schemes. Sen­a­tor Stevens had even sug­gest­ed that the ionos­phere could end our depen­den­cy on fos­sil fuels. “At any time over Fair­banks,” Stevens said on the Sen­ate floor, “there is more ener­gy than there is in the entire Unit­ed States.” Begich had hit the con­spir­a­cy jack­pot.

    In 1995, he self-pub­lished a book, Angels Don’t Play This HAARP. It sold 100,000 copies. He start­ed giv­ing speech­es on Haarp’s dan­gers every­where, from UFO con­ven­tions to the Euro­pean Par­lia­ment. Mar­vel Comics, Tom Clan­cy, and, of course, The X‑Files made the facil­i­ty an omi­nous fea­ture of their nar­ra­tives. A Russ­ian mil­i­tary jour­nal warned that blast­ing the ionos­phere would trig­ger a cas­cade of elec­trons that could flip Earth­’s mag­net­ic poles. “Sim­ply speak­ing, the plan­et will ‘cap­size,’ ” it warned. The Euro­pean Par­lia­ment held hear­ings about Haarp; so did the Alas­ka state leg­is­la­ture.

    Begich told his audi­ences that Haarp was a high-pow­ered weapon pro­to­type. For­get spy­ing under­ground with low-fre­quen­cy waves—Haarp was so strong it could trig­ger earth­quakes. And by dump­ing all those radio waves into the ionos­phere, Haarp could turn a miles-wide por­tion of the upper atmos­phere into a giant lens. “The result will be an absolute­ly cat­a­stroph­ic release of pure ener­gy,” he wrote. “The sky would lit­er­al­ly appear to burn.”

    The mil­i­tary’s response only amped up the con­spir­acists. When pro­gram man­agers swore that the facil­i­ty would “nev­er be used for mil­i­tary func­tions,” Begich would trot out mil­i­tary reports tout­ing satel­lite-blind­ing research plans or then-sec­re­tary of defense William Cohen’s sug­ges­tion that “elec­tro­mag­net­ic waves” could alter the cli­mate and con­trol earth­quakes and vol­ca­noes remote­ly.

    Begich’s agi­tat­ing did­n’t delay the project too much. (Gov­ern­ment research projects slip dead­lines and bust bud­gets just fine on their own.) But by 1999, when Haarp’s first 48-anten­na array was fin­ished, the pro­jec­t’s cost was on its way to tripling the orig­i­nal fea­si­bil­i­ty study esti­mate, and the mil­i­tary was get­ting antsy. Sure, the ini­tial exper­i­ments had been sci­en­tif­i­cal­ly impres­sive, detect­ing ion­iza­tion in the atmos­phere caused by a gam­ma ray flare from a neu­tron star 23,000 light-years away and find­ing bunkers 300 feet below the earth­’s sur­face. But the Pen­ta­gon want­ed to know when its over­priced con­spir­a­cy-mag­net would pro­duce that bat­tle-ready tech­nol­o­gy they’d been promised.

    The Haarp team was caught in an expec­ta­tions trap. In the­o­ry, the Pen­ta­gon should spend a lot of mon­ey on basic research. That’s how you come up with the Inter­net and stealth jets. But in prac­tice, the gen­er­als and Con­gress want sci­ence that’s use­ful now. Papadopou­los under­stood this instinc­tive­ly: You have to sell it. Look­ing at the sleep cycles of fruit flies? Why, that might some­day lead to inde­fati­ga­ble supertroops! Build­ing nanome­ter-long hinges? You’re devel­op­ing arti­fi­cial mus­cles that could let sol­diers leap build­ings! But it was tough to make that kind of case for Haarp. “It’s like, I talk to my mom and she says, ‘When are you gonna build some­thing?’ ” says Craig Selch­er, Haarp pro­gram man­ag­er for the Navy. “Mom,” he answers, “I’m try­ing to unlock the secrets of the uni­verse!”

    So the ionos­pherists formed a pan­el to find a new pur­pose for Haarp. Teth­er, who fund­ed the orig­i­nal Arco stud­ies and had con­sult­ed on the project, was named chair.

    Months lat­er, the group had its ratio­nale, and it was ambi­tious to say the least: post-nuclear space cleanup. By the late ’90s, Cold War fears had been replaced by wor­ries that a rogue state could get a nuke. If Pyongyang set off a bomb in orbit, it would fry cru­cial satel­lites. The­o­ret­i­cal­ly, ultralow-fre­quen­cy waves in the ionos­phere would knock the par­ti­cles out of their nat­ur­al spin, send­ing them tum­bling down into the low­er atmos­phere to be harm­less­ly reab­sorbed. The Pen­ta­gon loved the idea. But it would need a lot of testing—which could only be done at Haarp. “You could actu­al­ly see the light­bulb flick on,” says Ed Kennedy, a for­mer Haarp pro­gram man­ag­er. “This was some­thing Haarp could actu­al­ly help solve.”

    Haarp’s Mis­sion

    The heart of the High Fre­quen­cy Active Auro­ral Research Pro­gram is an ionos­pher­ic heater that shoots elec­tro­mag­net­ic ener­gy into Earth­’s atmos­phere. Five gen­er­a­tors pump out 2.9 megawatts each; 180 anten­nas con­vert the elec­tric­i­ty into high-fre­quen­cy radio waves and send them into the ionos­phere, which turns them into low-fre­quen­cy waves. Why? Research. An ener­gized ionos­phere could be used for all sorts of cool stuff.

    ...

    Of course, the facil­i­ty would need 180 anten­nas and a lot more mon­ey. But as the pan­el was wind­ing down in 2001, cash stopped being a prob­lem. Teth­er became head of Darpa, tak­ing charge of near­ly $2 bil­lion a year for research. He put togeth­er a deal for the Air Force, Navy, and his agency to fund Haarp’s construction—with some con­gres­sion­al pork, of course. Again, Arco’s con­struc­tion sub­sidiary (by then renamed and sold to giant defense con­trac­tor BAE Sys­tems) was select­ed to han­dle most of the hard­ware, a $35.4 mil­lion job that would bal­loon to $118.5 mil­lion. And Papadopou­los still had his sep­a­rate mil­i­tary fund­ing for ionos­pher­ic heat­ing research. In a field as small as radio sci­ence, it’s almost impos­si­ble to avoid such over­lap. By 2007, Haarp was run­ning at full strength. But it was still mys­te­ri­ous. Nei­ther the pub­lic nor the press had been allowed inside since the array became ful­ly oper­a­tional.

    ...

    Dur­ing a few weeks in Octo­ber 2008, for exam­ple, the site host­ed 31 inves­ti­ga­tors con­duct­ing 42 dif­fer­ent sets of experiments—imaging ionos­pher­ic irreg­u­lar­i­ties, exam­in­ing the “ion out­flow from high-fre­quen­cy heat­ing,” cre­at­ing arti­fi­cial north­ern lights. Physics stu­dents flock to Haarp in the sum­mer. Ionos­pher­ic papers are back in the sci­en­tif­ic lit­er­a­ture. Even the space-based nuclear clean-up exper­i­ments are teach­ing us lessons about the Van Allen radi­a­tion belts. Online, the tin­foil-hat­ted chat­ter about Haarp drones on—it’s blamed for every­thing from Kat­ri­na to last year’s earth­quake in Sichuan, Chi­na. But after decades of push­ing, radio sci­en­tists final­ly have the exper­i­men­tal facil­i­ty of their dreams.

    Yet Haarp’s future is unclear. Defense bud­gets are shrink­ing, and the facil­i­ty costs $10 mil­lion a year to oper­ate. Haarp’s patron at Darpa, Tony Teth­er, has left his job. The pro­jec­t’s god­fa­ther, Ted Stevens, was defeat­ed in the 2008 Sen­ate elec­tion by the may­or of Anchor­age: Mark Begich, Nick­’s lit­tle broth­er. “I’ll have his ear,” Nick promis­es.

    So the radio sci­en­tists may have to look for fund­ing again, which prob­a­bly means a whole new set of ratio­nales. You can imag­ine how the con­spir­a­cy crowd will react. And the sci­en­tists, in their eager­ness, can end up feed­ing the para­noia. Papadopou­los, for exam­ple, says he wants to do anoth­er round of sub­ter­ranean sur­veil­lance exper­i­ments. “Per­son­al­ly, I believe it can reach 1,000 kilo­me­ters. It can’t reach Iran, if that’s your ques­tion,” he laughs. “But if I put Haarp on a ship, or on an oil plat­form, who knows?” Not that he has con­crete plans for such tests in Alas­ka, let alone in the Per­sian Gulf—though he does men­tion a facil­i­ty in Puer­to Rico as a pos­si­bil­i­ty.

    ...

    ————

    “Strange New Air Force Facil­i­ty Ener­gizes Ionos­phere, Fans Con­spir­a­cy Flames” by Noah Shacht­man; Wired; 07/20/2009

    “Bring­ing Haarp to fruition was, well, com­pli­cat­ed. A group of sci­en­tists had to cozy up to a US sen­a­tor, cut deals with an oil com­pa­ny, and con­vince the Pen­ta­gon that the project might rev­o­lu­tion­ize war. Oh, and along the way they sparked enough con­spir­a­cy the­o­ries to make the place sound like an arc­tic Area 51.”

    A rev­o­lu­tion in war­fare. That’s how HAARP was ulti­mate­ly sold to the US gov­ern­ment. The ini­tial sale pitch was grand, with Bernard East­lund, an ARCO physi­cist, sug­gest­ing that HAARP could be used to pump the ionos­phere with radioac­tive par­ti­cles that could knock out incom­ing Sovi­et mis­siles. It’s not clear it was a fea­si­ble idea, but that was the hook:

    ...
    One of the first ideas came mid-decade from Bernard East­lund, a physi­cist work­ing for oil-and-gas con­glom­er­ate Atlantic Rich­field. Arco had the rights to tril­lions of cubic feet of nat­ur­al gas under Alaska’s North Slope. The prob­lem had always been how to get that gas to the port at Valdez. East­lund had a bet­ter idea: Use the gas onsite to fuel a giant ionos­pher­ic heater. Such a facil­i­ty, he wrote in a series of patents, could fry Sovi­et mis­siles in mid­flight or maybe even nudge cyclones and oth­er extreme weath­er toward ene­mies. That’s right: weaponized hur­ri­canes.

    ...

    Papadopou­los was­n’t very impressed. East­lund’s tricks would­n’t work even if the site were in the right place along Earth­’s mag­net­ic field—which it was­n’t. But the ad hoc coali­tion of radio sci­en­tists did like the idea of set­ting up a new heater in Alas­ka. In those upper lat­i­tudes, the ionos­phere inter­sects with Earth­’s mag­net­ic field and becomes sci­en­tif­i­cal­ly inter­est­ing.
    ...

    Not sur­pris­ing­ly, it was DARPA that first start­ed invest­ing in the idea with a fea­si­bil­i­ty study. Then came the con­gres­sion­al back­ing, large­ly thanks to Alaskan sen­a­tor Ted Stevens. The promise, at that point, was advanced radar that could detect under­ground facil­i­ties or even con­tact deeply sub­merged sub­marines. HAARP is like a Swiss army knife of mil­i­tary appli­ca­tions:

    ...
    Arco’s exec­u­tives pre­sent­ed the idea to Simon Ramo, one of the god­fa­thers of the US inter­con­ti­nen­tal bal­lis­tic mis­sile pro­gram. Ramo passed it on to the under sec­re­tary of defense, who in turn gave it to the Pen­tagon’s advanced research arm, Darpa, and the DOD’s secre­tive sci­ence advi­so­ry board, code-named Jason. Tony Teth­er, direc­tor of Darpa’s strate­gic tech­nol­o­gy office, gave Arco a con­tract to con­duct a fea­si­bil­i­ty study. Arco brought on board none oth­er than Den­nis Papadopou­los as a con­sul­tant.

    ...

    Luck­i­ly, the senior sen­a­tor from Alas­ka, Ted Stevens, enjoyed a rep­u­ta­tion for insert­ing projects into the fed­er­al bud­get to ben­e­fit his home state, most noto­ri­ous­ly a $223 mil­lion bridge from the town of Ketchikan to, well, not much of any­place. In 1988, the researchers sat down with Stevens and assured him that an ionos­pher­ic heater would be a bona fide sci­en­tif­ic mar­vel and a guar­an­teed job cre­ator, and it could be built for a mere $30 mil­lion. “He pro­vid­ed some con­gres­sion­al mon­ey, some pork mon­ey,” Papadopou­los says. “It was much less than the bridge to nowhere.” Just like that, the Pen­ta­gon had $10 mil­lion for ionos­pher­ic heater research.

    Now the sci­en­tists had some start­up cash, but they also need­ed hardware—and for that, they had to enlist the mil­i­tary. In a series of meet­ings in the win­ter of 1989–90, the field­’s lead­ing lights, includ­ing Papadopou­los, pitched the Navy and the Air Force. Haarp, they assert­ed, could lead to “sig­nif­i­cant oper­a­tional capa­bil­i­ties.” They’d build a giant phased anten­na array that would aim a fine­ly tuned beam of high- fre­quen­cy radio waves into the sky. The beam would excite elec­trons in the ionos­phere, alter­ing that spot’s con­duc­tiv­i­ty and induc­ing it to emit its own extreme­ly low fre­quen­cy waves, which could the­o­ret­i­cal­ly pen­e­trate the earth­’s sur­face to reveal hid­den bunkers or be used to con­tact deeply sub­merged sub­marines.
    ...

    Then Nick Begich took an inter­est, lead­ing even­tu­al­ly to the broad­er pub­lic tak­ing an inter­est after Begich self-pub­lished his book sug­gest­ing HAARP was a weapon pro­to­type poten­tial­ly pow­er­ful enough to trig­ger earth­quakes:

    ...
    For more than a year, plan­ning pro­ceed­ed large­ly out of pub­lic view. Then, in 1993, an Anchor­age teach­ers’ union rep named Nick Begich—son of one of Alaska’s most impor­tant polit­i­cal families—found a notice about Haarp in the Aus­tralian con­spir­a­cy mag­a­zine Nexus.

    ...

    Begich told his audi­ences that Haarp was a high-pow­ered weapon pro­to­type. For­get spy­ing under­ground with low-fre­quen­cy waves—Haarp was so strong it could trig­ger earth­quakes. And by dump­ing all those radio waves into the ionos­phere, Haarp could turn a miles-wide por­tion of the upper atmos­phere into a giant lens. “The result will be an absolute­ly cat­a­stroph­ic release of pure ener­gy,” he wrote. “The sky would lit­er­al­ly appear to burn.”

    The mil­i­tary’s response only amped up the con­spir­acists. When pro­gram man­agers swore that the facil­i­ty would “nev­er be used for mil­i­tary func­tions,” Begich would trot out mil­i­tary reports tout­ing satel­lite-blind­ing research plans or then-sec­re­tary of defense William Cohen’s sug­ges­tion that “elec­tro­mag­net­ic waves” could alter the cli­mate and con­trol earth­quakes and vol­ca­noes remote­ly.
    ...

    Final­ly, we get to the late 90s, when HAARP was well over bud­get and in need of fur­ther jus­ti­fi­ca­tions to keep going. What we’re the jus­ti­fi­ca­tions they fell back on to keep the spon­sors hap­py? Post-nuclear space cleanup. The idea being that HAARP could knock the radi­a­tion out of orbit back down to earth. The Pen­ta­gon loved it:

    ..
    The Haarp team was caught in an expec­ta­tions trap. In the­o­ry, the Pen­ta­gon should spend a lot of mon­ey on basic research. That’s how you come up with the Inter­net and stealth jets. But in prac­tice, the gen­er­als and Con­gress want sci­ence that’s use­ful now. Papadopou­los under­stood this instinc­tive­ly: You have to sell it. Look­ing at the sleep cycles of fruit flies? Why, that might some­day lead to inde­fati­ga­ble supertroops! Build­ing nanome­ter-long hinges? You’re devel­op­ing arti­fi­cial mus­cles that could let sol­diers leap build­ings! But it was tough to make that kind of case for Haarp. “It’s like, I talk to my mom and she says, ‘When are you gonna build some­thing?’ ” says Craig Selch­er, Haarp pro­gram man­ag­er for the Navy. “Mom,” he answers, “I’m try­ing to unlock the secrets of the uni­verse!”

    So the ionos­pherists formed a pan­el to find a new pur­pose for Haarp. Teth­er, who fund­ed the orig­i­nal Arco stud­ies and had con­sult­ed on the project, was named chair.

    Months lat­er, the group had its ratio­nale, and it was ambi­tious to say the least: post-nuclear space cleanup. By the late ’90s, Cold War fears had been replaced by wor­ries that a rogue state could get a nuke. If Pyongyang set off a bomb in orbit, it would fry cru­cial satel­lites. The­o­ret­i­cal­ly, ultralow-fre­quen­cy waves in the ionos­phere would knock the par­ti­cles out of their nat­ur­al spin, send­ing them tum­bling down into the low­er atmos­phere to be harm­less­ly reab­sorbed. The Pen­ta­gon loved the idea. But it would need a lot of testing—which could only be done at Haarp. “You could actu­al­ly see the light­bulb flick on,” says Ed Kennedy, a for­mer Haarp pro­gram man­ag­er. “This was some­thing Haarp could actu­al­ly help solve.”
    ...

    It’s worth not­ing that HAARP was trans­ferred from the US Air Force to the the Uni­ver­si­ty of Alas­ka Fair­banks in 2014. It’s now offi­cial­ly just a civil­ian research sta­tion. But, in the­o­ry, it could per­form this kind of sky-scrub­bing ser­vice. Or, who knows, pump the sky full of radi­a­tion and cre­ate a kind of vir­tu­al EMP. HAARP is a ver­sa­tile tool.

    But, again, whether or not HAARP’s promised sky-scrub­bing capa­bil­i­ties are real, there’s more than just radi­a­tion that’s going to need to be scrubbed from the LEO space in the event of an EMP attack. Or just a nasty solar storm. Or ran­dom orbital mishap that trig­gers a chain reac­tion. The more crowd­ed earth­’s orbital space gets, the more we’re going to have to wor­ry about the inevitable day large amounts of debris have to be ‘scrubbed’ before that space is usable again. So let’s hope HAARP has debris-scrub­bing capa­bil­i­ties we haven’t heard about yet. Because while we still don’t know why the chair of the House Intel­li­gence Com­mit­tee risked burn­ing high­ly sen­si­tive sources to make a big pub­lic stink about Russ­ian space nukes, we do know what he was so alarmed about. The increas­ing­ly clut­tered LEO space real­ly is a cause for alarm. Grow­ing alarm. It’s a dis­as­ter wait­ing to hap­pen. With or with­out Russ­ian space nukes.

    Posted by Pterrafractyl | February 23, 2024, 11:42 pm
  2. Dis­in­for­ma­tion isn’t just an increas­ing­ly potent polit­i­cal tool. It’s a trib­al gang sign. A means for indi­vid­u­als to demon­strate their loy­al­ty to a cause. Dis­in­for­ma­tion, and claims are belief in dis­in­for­ma­tion is a pow­er­ful polit­i­cal orga­niz­ing tool. A uni­form for ide­o­log­i­cal armies.

    Recall how that dis­in­for­ma­tion insight was made back in a 2008 blog post by none oth­er than Cur­tis “Men­cious Mold­bug” Yarvin, writ­ing ““To believe in non­sense is an unforge­able [sic] demon­stra­tion of loy­al­ty. It serves as a polit­i­cal uni­form. And if you have a uni­form, you have an army.” An insight clear­ly tak­en heart by today’s Repub­li­can par­ty. Most notably Don­ald Trump and his run­ning JD Vance, him­self an open Yarvin fan.

    It’s not hard to find exam­ples of this embrace of dis­in­for­ma­tion as a kind of uni­form or show of loy­al­ty. That’s more or less the cult dynam­ic of today’s GOP, with one elect­ed offi­cial after anoth­er debas­ing them­selves with an embrace of what­ev­er non­sense Trump most recent­ly uttered. But the dri­vers of dis­in­for­ma­tion as a polit­i­cal uni­form aren’t lim­it­ed to Trump’s sta­tus as a cult leader. There’s also the real­i­ty that tech­nol­o­gy has sim­ply made dis­in­for­ma­tion far more appeal­ing, whether we’re talk­ing about the sheer influ­en­tial pow­er of social media to the real­i­ty-warp­ing nature of deep rake tech­nol­o­gy and advanced AI image and video gen­er­a­tion tech­nolo­gies. Com­pelling dis­in­for­ma­tion tech­nol­o­gy is sim­ply more acces­si­ble and com­pelling than ever before and it’s only get­ting bet­ter at it.

    Beyond that, there’s the real­i­ty that the steady advance of tech­no­log­i­cal capac­i­ty increas­ing­ly makes the pre­vi­ous­ly out­landish feel pos­si­ble. For exam­ple, weath­er manip­u­la­tion. While the weath­er has long held a kind of god-like pow­er of human affairs, it’s no secret that basic weath­er manip­u­la­tion tech­nol­o­gy has exist­ed for decades. Cloud seed­ing isn’t exact­ly a secret. ’

    But what about all the claims of secret weath­er manip­u­la­tion tech­nolo­gies? Tech­nolo­gies like HAARP, that were lit­er­al­ly sold to the US mil­i­tary under the pre­tense that weath­er could be con­trolled and even hur­ri­canes gen­er­at­ed and manip­u­lat­ed. As we’ve seen, redi­rect­ing hur­ri­canes real­ly was part of the sales pitch to the Pen­ta­gon for HAARP. And while it’s very unclear that HAARP ever devel­oped that kind of capac­i­ty, it’s hard to entire­ly dis­miss the pos­si­bil­i­ty at this point.

    At the same time, just because it’s pos­si­ble tech­nol­o­gy has been devel­oped to manip­u­la­tion the inten­si­ty of direc­tion of hur­ri­cane, that does­n’t mean every time you see a hur­ri­cane it should be just assumed that it was con­trolled by the gov­ern­ment. To do so would be beyond idi­ot­ic. And yet, as we’re going to see, that’s exact­ly the what Con­gress­woman Mar­jorie Tay­or Greene has been assert­ing recent­ly, alleg­ing that “they” direct­ed Hur­ri­cane Helene towards Repub­li­can areas as part of some sort of elec­toral play in antic­i­pa­tion of the upcom­ing elec­tion. After mak­ing com­ments, JD Vance came out to praise MTG for being a “loy­al per­son” and a “hell of a Con­gress­woman.”

    But MTG’s hur­ri­cane manip­u­la­tion antics were just one ele­ment in a much larg­er wave of Helene-relat­ed dis­in­for­ma­tion. As the fol­low­ing arti­cle describes, an AI-gen­er­at­ed image of a young girl sit­ting in a boat clench­ing a pup­py has gone viral on con­ser­v­a­tive social media as evi­dence of the Biden admin­is­tra­tion’s alleged aban­don­ment of Helene’s vic­tims. The image is being spread along with the nar­ra­tive that assis­tance is being with­held from vic­tims in order to give the relief mon­ey to ille­gal immi­grants instead. This is, of course, high­ly res­o­nant with the mes­sag­ing we’ve already been get­ting about Hait­ian migrants steal­ing and eat­ing pets in Spring­field, Ohio. A meme JD Vance has been to con­scious­ly ampli­fy­ing that orig­i­nat­ed from the neo-Nazi group Blood Tribe. And now we have the GOP en mass going all in on the ‘Hur­ri­cane vic­tim relief is being tak­en to give to ille­gal migrants’ nar­ra­tive. A line straight of out Blood Tribe’s play­book.

    But this sto­ry about hur­ri­cane dis­in­for­ma­tion has anoth­er twist that should be not­ed: it turns out there’s one indi­vid­ual with weird­ly potent cre­den­tials when it comes to HAARP-relat­ed hur­ri­canes who is actu­al­ly run­ning for Con­gress this year under the MAGA ban­ner. That would be Nick Begich III, son of Nick Begich Jr, the author of Angels Don’t Play this HAARP: Advances in Tes­la Tech­nol­o­gy. Yes, Nick Begich III — who hails for an Alaskan polit­i­cal dynasty that includes a num­ber of promi­nent Democ­rats — is mak­ing his third run for Alaska’s House seat. And he’s got Don­ald Trump’s endorse­ment, although, as we’ll see, Trump actu­al­ly ini­tial­ly endorsed his pri­ma­ry oppo­nent. Still, in terms of the GOP’s embrace of dis­in­for­ma­tion, and in par­tic­u­lar cli­mate change-relat­ed dis­in­for­ma­tion, it’s a fas­ci­nat­ing poten­tial devel­op­ment that we could see the son of Nick Begich Jr enter Con­gress as a MAGA lunatic. Because as is becom­ing clear, hur­ri­cane-relat­ed dis­in­for­ma­tion is only only going to get stronger as the winds of fas­cism con­tin­ue to heat up...along with all the cli­mate change:

    Rolling Stone

    Right-Wingers Heart­bro­ken by Pic­ture of Lit­tle Girl Who Doesn’t Exist

    An AI-gen­er­at­ed image has been used to attack the Biden-Har­ris admin­is­tra­tion over its response to Hur­ri­cane Helene

    Miles Klee
    Octo­ber 4, 2024

    There has been no short­age of gut-wrench­ing pho­tographs from com­mu­ni­ties in the south­east dev­as­tat­ed by Hur­ri­cane Helene, which caused extreme flood­ing and killed at least 215 peo­ple — pic­tures of hous­es destroyed, fam­i­lies trapped on rooftops, wreck­age from mud­slides and roads washed out by tor­ren­tial rains. But rather than focus on the actu­al vic­tims or dam­age, many right-wing influ­encers and politi­cians have extend­ed their sym­pa­thies to a nonex­is­tent girl and her pup­py (who is also not real).

    The AI-gen­er­at­ed image they’re shar­ing depicts a cry­ing girl in a boat, seem­ing­ly alone except for the lit­tle dog she’s clutch­ing. She wears a life­jack­et and appears to be adrift on flood­wa­ters caused by a major storm. Sen. Mike Lee of Utah post­ed the pic­ture on X on Thurs­day, writ­ing “Cap­tion this pho­to,” appar­ent­ly invit­ing his fol­low­ers to vent their out­rage at the Biden-Har­ris admin­is­tra­tion for allow­ing Amer­i­can chil­dren to suf­fer such mis­ery on their watch. After users point­ed out that he’d fall­en for AI slop, he delet­ed the pic­ture. (The image orig­i­nat­ed on the Trump web forum Patriots.win, where sev­er­al users imme­di­ate­ly rec­og­nized it as the prod­uct of an AI mod­el.)

    Based Sen­a­tor Mike Lee delet­ed this. Because some­one told him this viral MAGA pho­to is AI and not Kamala aban­don­ing kids and pup­pies. pic.twitter.com/DhXZB9j9k6— Ron Fil­ip­kows­ki (@RonFilipkowski) Octo­ber 3, 2024

    Oth­ers, how­ev­er, have left the mis­lead­ing pic­ture up on their social media accounts — and some are defend­ing it as an accu­rate rep­re­sen­ta­tion of Helene’s effects even though it’s fake. Far-right con­spir­a­cy the­o­rist and Don­ald Trump asso­ciate Lau­ra Loomer called the image “sad,” quote-tweet­ing a post from Buzz Pat­ter­son, colum­nist for the con­ser­v­a­tive blog Red­State, who wrote of the pic­ture: “Our gov­ern­ment has failed us again.” Nei­ther have tak­en their posts down as of press time. Amy Kre­mer, RNC Nation­al Com­mit­tee­woman for the Geor­gia GOP and co-founder of Women for Trump, tweet­ed on Thurs­day that the image had been “seared into my mind.”

    Informed that she was not look­ing at an authen­tic pho­to, Kre­mer dou­bled down. “Y’all, I don’t know where this pho­to came from and hon­est­ly, it doesn’t mat­ter,” she replied. “There are peo­ple going through much worse than what is shown in this pic. So I’m leav­ing it because it is emblem­at­ic of the trau­ma and pain peo­ple are liv­ing through right now.” A large anony­mous blue-check account on X that rou­tine­ly attacks Democ­rats did remove the pic­ture but sim­i­lar­ly argued: “Even though that image was AI, it spoke a truth about the dis­re­gard Har­ris and Biden have for ordi­nary Amer­i­cans, as evi­denced by their crim­i­nal non-response to Helene.” Anoth­er X user post­ed a screen­shot of a more suc­cinct response from an appar­ent fam­i­ly mem­ber advised that the image was bogus. “Who cares,” they answered.

    https://t.co/mthLAw3A0Y
    — Mr. Hon­ey­dew (@bestbuddy1998) Octo­ber 3, 2024

    The lit­tle girl and her pup­py — there are AI-gen­er­at­ed vari­ants of the more viral image float­ing around as well — have been wide­ly pre­sent­ed by MAGA world as evi­dence of a failed dis­as­ter response in the after­math of Helene. Trump him­self is push­ing lies about the U.S. gov­ern­ment not being able to fund relief efforts, adding an over­tone of racism with the ground­less claim that the White House “stole” mon­ey from the Fed­er­al Emer­gency Man­age­ment Agency (FEMA) and “spent it all on ille­gal migrants.” (The irony being that in 2019, the Trump admin­is­tra­tion itself redi­rect­ed mil­lions in dis­as­ter funds, dur­ing hur­ri­cane sea­son, to pay for deten­tion cen­ters at the bor­der.)

    ...

    The bar­rage of AI junk from Trump sup­port­ers fol­lows a sim­i­lar trend last month, when the for­mer pres­i­dent, his run­ning mate Sen. J.D. Vance, and their var­i­ous allies were smear­ing the Hait­ian immi­grant com­mu­ni­ty of Spring­field, Ohio, by false­ly accus­ing them of steal­ing and eat­ing local house pets. Dur­ing that news cycle, many used AI to gen­er­ate car­toon­ish images of cats and dogs wear­ing MAGA hats, and Trump him­self hold­ing or pro­tect­ing ani­mals. Before that, Trump shared AI imagery that made it appear as if he had the back­ing of Tay­lor Swift and her fan army. (Swift endorsed Vice Pres­i­dent Har­ris imme­di­ate­ly after Har­ris’ Sep­tem­ber debate with Trump.) Along with the pho­ny “vic­tim” images to come out of the Helene dis­as­ter, there were also AI pic­tures of Trump brav­ing flood­wa­ters to assist res­i­dents and res­cue babies.

    ...

    ———–

    “Right-Wingers Heart­bro­ken by Pic­ture of Lit­tle Girl Who Doesn’t Exist” by Miles Klee; Rolling Stone; 10/04/2024

    “The AI-gen­er­at­ed image they’re shar­ing depicts a cry­ing girl in a boat, seem­ing­ly alone except for the lit­tle dog she’s clutch­ing. She wears a life­jack­et and appears to be adrift on flood­wa­ters caused by a major storm. Sen. Mike Lee of Utah post­ed the pic­ture on X on Thurs­day, writ­ing “Cap­tion this pho­to,” appar­ent­ly invit­ing his fol­low­ers to vent their out­rage at the Biden-Har­ris admin­is­tra­tion for allow­ing Amer­i­can chil­dren to suf­fer such mis­ery on their watch. After users point­ed out that he’d fall­en for AI slop, he delet­ed the pic­ture. (The image orig­i­nat­ed on the Trump web forum Patriots.win, where sev­er­al users imme­di­ate­ly rec­og­nized it as the prod­uct of an AI mod­el.)”

    AI trick­ery wins again. Although, as we can see with all the bad faith respons­es after this was revealed to be an AI image, the AI did­n’t real­ly win so much as the humans just refused play in good faith. Humans like CNP mem­ber Amy Kre­mer, who seemed entire­ly unper­turbed by the fact that the image was­n’t a real pho­to. As we’ve seen, Amy Kre­mer also hap­pens to be one of the indi­vid­u­als who played a key role in orga­niz­ing the var­i­ous ‘Stop the Steal’ ral­lies that cul­mi­nat­ed in the Jan­u­ary 6 Capi­tol insur­rec­tion. Recall how Amy and her daugh­ter Kylie Kre­mer report­ed­ly expressed con­cerns about the extrem­ists asso­ci­at­ed with Ali Alexander’s “Wild Protest” and the risk of vio­lence. They reached an agree­ment to allow the Ellipse ral­ly to be the only ral­ly sched­uled for Jan 6. But then the Kre­mers observed that the plan­ning for the Alexander/Jones ral­ly appeared to be ongo­ing so they brought these con­cerns up with White House Chief of Staff Mark Mead­ows. The Kre­mers also pur­chased sev­er­al burn­er phones in the days lead­ing up to the insur­rec­tion which were used to com­mu­ni­cate with White House fig­ures like Eric Trump, Lara Trump, Kat­ri­na Pier­son, and Mark Mead­ows. So when we see her casu­al­ly brush­ing off the fact that this was an AI-gen­er­at­ed image, keep in mind that Amy Kre­mer is some­one very famil­iar with how exten­sive fas­cist cos­play­ing can get:

    ...
    Oth­ers, how­ev­er, have left the mis­lead­ing pic­ture up on their social media accounts — and some are defend­ing it as an accu­rate rep­re­sen­ta­tion of Helene’s effects even though it’s fake. Far-right con­spir­a­cy the­o­rist and Don­ald Trump asso­ciate Lau­ra Loomer called the image “sad,” quote-tweet­ing a post from Buzz Pat­ter­son, colum­nist for the con­ser­v­a­tive blog Red­State, who wrote of the pic­ture: “Our gov­ern­ment has failed us again.” Nei­ther have tak­en their posts down as of press time. Amy Kre­mer, RNC Nation­al Com­mit­tee­woman for the Geor­gia GOP and co-founder of Women for Trump, tweet­ed on Thurs­day that the image had been “seared into my mind.”

    Informed that she was not look­ing at an authen­tic pho­to, Kre­mer dou­bled down. “Y’all, I don’t know where this pho­to came from and hon­est­ly, it doesn’t mat­ter,” she replied. “There are peo­ple going through much worse than what is shown in this pic. So I’m leav­ing it because it is emblem­at­ic of the trau­ma and pain peo­ple are liv­ing through right now.” A large anony­mous blue-check account on X that rou­tine­ly attacks Democ­rats did remove the pic­ture but sim­i­lar­ly argued: “Even though that image was AI, it spoke a truth about the dis­re­gard Har­ris and Biden have for ordi­nary Amer­i­cans, as evi­denced by their crim­i­nal non-response to Helene.” Anoth­er X user post­ed a screen­shot of a more suc­cinct response from an appar­ent fam­i­ly mem­ber advised that the image was bogus. “Who cares,” they answered.
    ...

    But the AI-gen­er­at­ed imagery is real­ly just one ele­ment of the larg­er gaslight­ing at work here, with the Trump him­self serv­ing as gaslighter-in-chief with is claims of FEMA funds being tak­en from hur­ri­cane relief efforts to give to “ille­gal migrants”. Much like JD Vance’s deci­sion to con­scious­ly ampli­fy a fake meme about Hatians eat­ing pets that orig­i­nat­ed from the neo-Nazi group Blood Tribe. It’s a chill­ing reminder of how AI’s abil­i­ty to deceive syn­er­gizes exceed­ing­ly well with the fas­cist impulse to dis­tort real­i­ty. Fas­cist AI real­ly is the future. Human­i­ty can help it:

    ...
    The lit­tle girl and her pup­py — there are AI-gen­er­at­ed vari­ants of the more viral image float­ing around as well — have been wide­ly pre­sent­ed by MAGA world as evi­dence of a failed dis­as­ter response in the after­math of Helene. Trump him­self is push­ing lies about the U.S. gov­ern­ment not being able to fund relief efforts, adding an over­tone of racism with the ground­less claim that the White House “stole” mon­ey from the Fed­er­al Emer­gency Man­age­ment Agency (FEMA) and “spent it all on ille­gal migrants.” (The irony being that in 2019, the Trump admin­is­tra­tion itself redi­rect­ed mil­lions in dis­as­ter funds, dur­ing hur­ri­cane sea­son, to pay for deten­tion cen­ters at the bor­der.)

    ...

    The bar­rage of AI junk from Trump sup­port­ers fol­lows a sim­i­lar trend last month, when the for­mer pres­i­dent, his run­ning mate Sen. J.D. Vance, and their var­i­ous allies were smear­ing the Hait­ian immi­grant com­mu­ni­ty of Spring­field, Ohio, by false­ly accus­ing them of steal­ing and eat­ing local house pets. Dur­ing that news cycle, many used AI to gen­er­ate car­toon­ish images of cats and dogs wear­ing MAGA hats, and Trump him­self hold­ing or pro­tect­ing ani­mals. Before that, Trump shared AI imagery that made it appear as if he had the back­ing of Tay­lor Swift and her fan army. (Swift endorsed Vice Pres­i­dent Har­ris imme­di­ate­ly after Har­ris’ Sep­tem­ber debate with Trump.) Along with the pho­ny “vic­tim” images to come out of the Helene dis­as­ter, there were also AI pic­tures of Trump brav­ing flood­wa­ters to assist res­i­dents and res­cue babies.
    ...

    And that brings us to the next exam­ple of that fas­cist impulse syn­er­giz­ing with advanced tech­nol­o­gy. In this case, it was Con­gress­woman Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene — of “Jew­ish Space Lasers” fame — voic­ing sus­pi­cions that Hur­ri­cane Helene was not just ampli­fied using weath­er manip­u­la­tion tech­nol­o­gy but some­how direct­ed toward Repub­li­can dom­i­nant areas to unleash its destruc­tion. In oth­er words, MTG is assert­ing the US has hur­ri­cane steer­ing tech­nolo­gies in addi­tion to hur­ri­cane ampli­fi­ca­tion tech­nol­o­gy. And using that tech­nol­o­gy to pun­ish Repub­li­can vot­ers in advance of the 2024 elec­tion. And, of course, JD Vance pro­ceed­ed to heap prais­es of MTG fol­low­ing those com­ments, call­ing her a “loy­al per­son” and a “hell of a Con­gress­woman”:

    The Inde­pen­dent

    JD Vance prais­es Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene hours after she sug­gest­ed Hur­ri­cane Helene was man-made

    Vance called Greene a “great friend” and “one hell of a Con­gress­woman”

    Graig Graziosi
    10/04/2024

    Sen­a­tor JD Vance had kind words for Repub­li­can Con­gress­woman Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene — just hours after she sug­gest­ed that a mys­te­ri­ous “they” can con­trol the weath­er and inflict­ed Hur­ri­cane Helene on Repub­li­can vot­ers in Geor­gia and North Car­oli­na.

    Greene is well known for repeat­ing non­sense con­spir­a­cy the­o­ries. She’s voiced her belief in “Jew­ish space lasers”and has been cozy with QAnon ideas both before and dur­ing her time in office.

    She made her lat­est bizarre claim on X, this time con­cern­ing the weath­er.

    “Yes, they can con­trol the weath­er. It’s ridicu­lous for any­one to lie and say it can’t be done,” Greene wrote.

    Before mak­ing the claim that the weath­er can be con­trolled, she shared an image of the areas most affect­ed by Hur­ri­cane Helene over­layed with an elec­toral map.

    This is a map of hur­ri­cane affect­ed areas with an over­lay of elec­toral map by polit­i­cal par­ty shows how hur­ri­cane dev­as­ta­tion could affect the elec­tion. pic.twitter.com/XIbNZjuC1q— Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene ???? (@mtgreenee) Octo­ber 3, 2024

    She wasn’t clear who “they” were but the map’s impli­ca­tion is that Democ­rats were some­how respon­si­ble for a hur­ri­cane to hurt Repub­li­can vot­ers.

    Those affect­ed by Hur­ri­cane Helene are still recov­er­ing from the dead­ly storm.

    Despite her absurd claim, Vance heaped praise on Greene dur­ing a recent cam­paign ral­ly in Greene’s dis­trict.

    “We have got anoth­er great, strong, woman leader in Con­gress­woman Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene,” he said. “Now you may not know this, but one of the very first endorse­ments … I got when I was run­ning in the Repub­li­can Sen­ate pri­ma­ry in Ohio a few years ago was from Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene, so she’s been a great friend of mine.”

    He went on call Greene a “loy­al per­son” and a “hell of a Con­gress­woman.”

    ...

    ————

    “JD Vance prais­es Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene hours after she sug­gest­ed Hur­ri­cane Helene was man-made” by Graig Graziosi; The Inde­pen­dent; 10/04/2024

    “Sen­a­tor JD Vance had kind words for Repub­li­can Con­gress­woman Mar­jorie Tay­lor Greene — just hours after she sug­gest­ed that a mys­te­ri­ous “they” can con­trol the weath­er and inflict­ed Hur­ri­cane Helene on Repub­li­can vot­ers in Geor­gia and North Car­oli­na.

    MTG neglect­ed to clar­i­fy who exact­ly “they” are in this sce­nario, although we can pre­sume it’s the same peo­ple behind the Jew­ish space lasers. Regard­less, JD Vance was clear­ly impressed with her dis­play of loy­al­ty:

    ...
    Greene is well known for repeat­ing non­sense con­spir­a­cy the­o­ries. She’s voiced her belief in “Jew­ish space lasers”and has been cozy with QAnon ideas both before and dur­ing her time in office.

    She made her lat­est bizarre claim on X, this time con­cern­ing the weath­er.

    “Yes, they can con­trol the weath­er. It’s ridicu­lous for any­one to lie and say it can’t be done,” Greene wrote.

    ...

    She wasn’t clear who “they” were but the map’s impli­ca­tion is that Democ­rats were some­how respon­si­ble for a hur­ri­cane to hurt Repub­li­can vot­ers.
    ...

    So with all this hur­ri­cane-relat­ed dis­in­for­ma­tion grip­ping the GOP, and more hur­ri­canes on the way, there’s a grim­ly inter­est­ing ques­tion form­ing over Alaska’s con­gres­sion­al race: how long before Nick Begich III gets dragged into the hur­ri­cane dis­in­for­ma­tion mael­strom?:

    Alas­ka Bea­con

    Don­ald Trump endors­es Alas­ka U.S. House can­di­date Nick Begich

    By: James Brooks — Sep­tem­ber 18, 2024 8:38 pm

    Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial can­di­date and for­mer Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump has endorsed Repub­li­can U.S. House can­di­date Nick Begich after Trump’s pri­or pick, Lt. Gov. Nan­cy Dahlstrom, with­drew from the race for Alaska’s lone House seat.

    “Amer­i­ca First Patri­ot Nick Begich won a pri­ma­ry against a Strong and Respect­ed Can­di­date in Alas­ka, a State I love and won by large mar­gins in 2016 and 2020. That Can­di­date has now with­drawn in favor of Nick, so this time, for the first time in years, we will have a REPUBLICAN against a Demo­c­rat – The Repub­li­can, Nick Begich, is out­stand­ing, and he will win!” Trump said in a post on social media.

    ...

    Begich, via a pre­pared state­ment, thanked Trump for his endorse­ment and said there is a “clear dif­fer­ence” between Trump and Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date Kamala Har­ris and that only Trump has “a pro-Alas­ka agen­da and a record of sup­port­ing Alaskan resource devel­op­ment.”

    ...

    Two years ago, Trump endorsed Repub­li­can for­mer Gov. Sarah Palin in her unsuc­cess­ful U.S. House race against Pel­to­la. In June, when Trump endorsed Dahlstrom, he claimed that Begich “has Demo­c­ra­t­ic ten­den­cies” and accused him of throw­ing the 2022 race to Pel­to­la.

    Begich, a long­time Repub­li­can, is from a promi­nent fam­i­ly that includes sev­er­al Demo­c­ra­t­ic politi­cians.

    Despite Trump’s endorse­ment, Dahlstrom fin­ished 6 per­cent­age points behind Begich in this year’s pri­ma­ry elec­tion, a tal­ly that encour­aged her deci­sion to with­draw.

    ...

    ———-

    “Don­ald Trump endors­es Alas­ka U.S. House can­di­date Nick Begich” By James Brooks; Alas­ka Bea­con; 09/18/2023

    “Two years ago, Trump endorsed Repub­li­can for­mer Gov. Sarah Palin in her unsuc­cess­ful U.S. House race against Pel­to­la. In June, when Trump endorsed Dahlstrom, he claimed that Begich “has Demo­c­ra­t­ic ten­den­cies” and accused him of throw­ing the 2022 race to Pel­to­la.

    Ouch. Trump declared Nick Begich III had “Demo­c­ra­t­ic ten­den­cies” and even accused him of throw­ing the 2022 race to his Demo­c­ra­t­ic oppo­nent. And then, belat­ed­ly, Begich gets that Trump endorse­ment last month.

    We’ll see if he ends up win­ning his third attempt to get this seat. But if he does win, it’s hard to ignore the fact that few peo­ple have more of a hur­ri­cane-manip­u­la­tion-relat­ed fam­i­ly pedi­gree than Nick Begich III. So we have to ask, will Nick Begich III be ‘loy­al’ enough to say what his dear leader wants said about hur­ri­cane manip­u­la­tions? Time will tell. But at this point it’s clear: if you want to join the MAGA army, you bet­ter be on board with the par­ti­san manip­u­la­tion of hur­ri­canes. It’s how you show you’re loy­al. Or at least one part of the uni­form of loy­al­ty. You real­ly have to be will­ing to go along with basi­cal­ly any­thing that comes out of Trump’s mouth. Includ­ing unpleas­ant stances on can­ni­bal­ism, for exam­ple. It’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly to the eas­i­est uni­form to fit into, but it’s not like there’s a choice. Which, of course, is all part of the loy­al­ty.

    Posted by Pterrafractyl | October 6, 2024, 5:00 pm
  3. The next four years are undoubt­ed­ly going to be a tumul­tuous chap­ter for the Unit­ed States. Sure, some of the dam­age to be done will be reversible. But not all of it. Which brings us to the fol­low­ing piece of Ars Tech­ni­ca about one of those major changes to how the Unit­ed States oper­ates that could prove to be exceed­ing­ly dif­fi­cult to reverse. Espe­cial­ly after the MAD­ness takes hold:

    The US Space Force is drop­ping the mask. Space is offi­cial­ly a bat­tle­field. No longer does its lead­er­ship tip-toe around pub­lic dis­cus­sions of the plans to fight and win bat­tles in space. Those plans are now out in the open. In fact, as we’re going to see, being open about Space Forces plans to fight and win the space bat­tles of the future is part of the plan for main­tain­ing space suprema­cy. Because it turns out fight­ing in space has a lot in com­mon with nuclear war in that it’s much eas­i­er to go on the offen­sive than the defen­sive. As such, hav­ing a cred­i­ble offen­sive threat is now seen as part of the defense. As Gen­er­al Chance Saltz­man, the top gen­er­al at Space Force, told the audi­ence at this week’s Space Force Asso­ci­a­tion’s Space­pow­er Con­fer­ence, “Space is a war-fight­ing domain...Ten years ago, I couldn’t say that. That’s the start­ing point. Think about that. In 2014, we had senior lead­ers start to talk about space and war in the same sen­tence. They got kind of berat­ed by the senior lead­er­ship. So this is still a rel­a­tive­ly new con­di­tion when we’re talk­ing about war-fight­ing in space. I don’t think we should under­es­ti­mate the pow­er of that.” It real­ly is a new age for war­fare.

    And that talk is going well beyond just char­ac­ter­iz­ing space as a new war-fight­ing domain. As Saltz­man to Ars Tech­ni­ca, Space Force is work­ing on a range of defen­sive mea­sures, includ­ing a reliance on “resilien­cy”, a ref­er­ence to the mega-con­stel­la­tions of satel­lites like Star­link and the Pen­ta­gon ver­sion, Starshield. But it sounds like there’s plans for more active defen­sive mea­sures, like rov­ing “defend­er” satel­lites that could be sta­tioned near high val­ue assets. How would these defend­er satel­lites work? Well, they would defend against attack­ing satel­lites that the Pen­ta­gon fears adver­saries are devel­op­ing. Offen­sive satel­lites that could lit­er­al­ly move up next to an ene­my satel­lite and either take con­trol or ren­der it inop­er­a­ble. It’s a glimpse into the vision for space-based war plan­ners are already think­ing about. Spe­cial mobile offen­sive satel­lites and defend­er satel­lites that could pro­tect them. Or maybe a dual use offensive/defensive satel­lite. That’s part of this future. On top of all the mega-con­stel­la­tions, which pre­sum­ably won’t need defend­er satel­lites because they are treat­ed as effec­tive­ly dis­pos­able.

    Oth­er offen­sive anti-satel­lite capa­bil­i­ties include hack­ing them or direct­ed ener­gy attacks, poten­tial­ly launched from the ground. And then there’s a form of attack that does­n’t appear to real­ly have an active defen­sive mea­sure: anti­satel­lite weapons (ASATs) likes mis­siles. As the arti­cle reminds us, while ASATs like mis­siles are rel­a­tive­ly low-tech and effec­tive, they come with the risks asso­ci­at­ed with all the debris they pro­duce. Debris that, as we’ve seen, is a recipe for the Kessler Syn­drome space junk cas­cade night­mare sce­nario.

    Now, as we saw back in Feb­ru­ary with the reports of US fears that Rus­sia is devel­op­ing an anti-satel­lite EMP weapon that could dis­able entire mega-con­stel­la­tions. As the fol­low­ing arti­cle notes, while the US has stat­ed that, if Rus­sia places an EMP weapon in orbit it would vio­late Arti­cle IV of the 1967 Out­er Space Treaty that bans weapons of mass destruc­tion in space, Rus­sia actu­al­ly pro­posed at the UN this year a res­o­lu­tion that would ban ALL weapons in space. That res­o­lu­tion was vetoed by the US, with US offi­cials say­ing that Rus­sia has already test­ed an ASAT in orbit. Which isn’t actu­al­ly a rea­son for oppos­ing such a ban, if you think about, espe­cial­ly since the US has obvi­ous­ly test­ed ASAT tech­nol­o­gy too over the decades. Of course, the unstat­ed rea­son the US would oppose such a res­o­lu­tion is basi­cal­ly the mes­sage Space Force has now decid­ed to pub­licly deliv­er to the world: the US is plan­ning on space-based mil­i­tary suprema­cy and that’s the sim­ple real­i­ty of it.

    Inter­est­ing­ly, accord­ing to John Plumb, the for­mer assis­tant sec­re­tary of defense for space pol­i­cy, if the Russ­ian EMP weapon was to be used, it’s expect­ed to ren­der low-Earth orbit unus­able for a year or more, with some satel­lites knocked out from the ini­tial EMP blast while the remain­ing satel­lites are steadi­ly dam­aged from the result­ing orbital radi­a­tion. This is a good time to recall how Star­link relies in part on auto­mat­ed orbital adjust­ments to avoid col­li­sions, so if the Star­link satel­lites lose the abil­i­ty to adjust their orbits we should expect numer­ous col­li­sions to ensue. Which, again, is a recipe for Kessler Syn­drome and also a reminder that the pre­dic­tions that low-earth orbits will clear up after a year could be con­sid­ered opti­mistic. This is also a good time to recall how one of promised ben­e­fits of HAARP was its poten­tial abil­i­ty to scrub the atmos­phere of radi­a­tion in the event of a nuclear war. Yes, HAARP could very much be part of this envi­sioned future of war­fare. Or at least for the envi­sioned post-con­flict clean up effort.

    Now, it is true that low-orbit space debris will even­tu­al­ly fall into the atmos­phere and burn, but let’s not for­get how a mass-de-orbit­ing event like that is also a recipe for the destruc­tion of the earth­’s ozone lay­er as all those Alu­mini­um-heavy satel­lites burn up. In oth­er words, you might not want to go out­side dur­ing that year or more of orbital chaos.

    But for all the clam­or­ing about a Russ­ian orbital EMP, it sounds like Chi­na’s space war­fare capa­bil­i­ties are what is con­cern­ing the Pen­ta­gon the most these days. In par­tic­u­lar, Chi­na’s grow­ing abil­i­ty to repli­cate the US’s use of satel­lites to bol­ster land, air, and naval forces. It sounds like coun­ter­ing Chi­na’s satel­lite-based war­fare capa­bil­i­ties is very much a focus of the Space Force war plan­ning effort, and the US won’t nec­es­sar­i­ly be wait­ing for Chi­na to attack the US’s satel­lites first. It points to a poten­tial­ly very sig­nif­i­cant con­se­quence of this strate­gic shift to the devel­op­ment of offen­sives anti-satel­lite tac­tics: we should­n’t assume these offen­sive weapons will only be used after an attack on US satel­lites. As with nuclear war, there’s noth­ing stop­ping a first strike. Because it sure sounds like the US has kind of adopt­ed a satel­lite-based mutu­al­ly assured destruc­tion pos­ture while simul­ta­ne­ous­ly main­tain­ing the right to a first strike.

    Now, keep in mind that Chi­na is already build­ing mega-con­stel­la­tions of its own, so if the US is plan­ning on knock­ing out Chi­na’s satel­lite oper­a­tions, that’s going to entail tak­ing out mega-con­stel­la­tions. Which is a fur­ther reminder that the devel­op­ment of new offen­sive tac­tics capa­ble of inca­pac­i­tat­ing entire mega-con­stel­la­tion is like­ly a big part of what Space Force is devel­op­ing. Big new offen­sive capa­bil­i­ties are going to be required. Ide­al­ly capa­bil­i­ties that inca­pac­i­tate a mega-con­stel­la­tion with­out induc­ing Kessler Syn­drome.

    And as we’re going to see, as big as those Space Force ambi­tions may be, there’s anoth­er very pow­er­ful net­work that shares this vision: the folks behind Project 2025. Yes, it turns out Project 2025 actu­al­ly has a sec­tion on its plans for Space Force. Specif­i­cal­ly, plans to shift Space Force from a pri­mar­i­ly defen­sive pos­ture to one that includes offen­sive weapons. In oth­er words, this new tune we are now hear­ing out of the Space Force com­mand is very much aligned with Project 2025. Which is a strong indi­ca­tion that we should expect mas­sive US gov­ern­ment invest­ments in vision for US suprema­cy of the space bat­tle­field over the next four years. This is, of course, on top of the pro­found influ­ence Elon Musk is going to have over the Trump admin­is­tra­tion, with Musk poised to be the pri­ma­ry com­mer­cial ben­e­fi­cia­ry from the mil­i­ta­riza­tion of space.

    The US gov­ern­ment was obvi­ous­ly very inter­est­ed in space-based war­fare under the Biden admin­is­tra­tion but that does­n’t mean that inter­est can’t deep­en. Because, con­trary to the sil­ly notions of Don­ald Trump as some sort of ‘anti-deep state pro-peace’ can­di­date, the com­ing admin­is­tra­tion is like­ly to over­see the cre­ation of the ‘deep­est state’ the US has ever expe­ri­enced and these deep state forces are very com­mit­ted to wag­ing a war in space soon­er rather than lat­er:

    Ars Tech­ni­ca

    The US mil­i­tary is now talk­ing open­ly about going on the attack in space

    “We have to build capa­bil­i­ties that pro­vide our lead­er­ship offen­sive and defen­sive options.”

    Stephen Clark – Dec 13, 2024 9:40 AM

    ORLANDO, Florida—Earlier this year, offi­cials at US Space Com­mand released a list of pri­or­i­ties and needs, and among the rou­tine recita­tion of things like cyber defense, com­mu­ni­ca­tions, and sur­veil­lance was a rel­a­tive­ly new term: “inte­grat­ed space fires.”

    This is a new phrase in the eso­teric ter­mi­nol­o­gy the mil­i­tary uses to describe its activ­i­ties. Essen­tial­ly, “fires” are offen­sive or defen­sive actions against an adver­sary. The Army defines fires as “the use of weapon sys­tems to cre­ate spe­cif­ic lethal and non­lethal effects on a tar­get.”

    The inclu­sion of this term in a Space Com­mand plan­ning doc­u­ment was anoth­er sig­nal that Pen­ta­gon lead­ers, long hes­i­tant to even men­tion the pos­si­bil­i­ty of putting offen­sive weapons in space for fear of stir­ring up a cos­mic arms race, see the taboo of talk­ing about space war­fare as a thing of the past.

    “While we’ve held it close to the vest before, some of that was just kind of hand-wring­ing,” said Gen. Chance Saltz­man, the top gen­er­al in the Space Force, who also serves on the joint chiefs of staff. “It was­n’t real­ly some­thing we need­ed to pro­tect.”

    One rea­son for the change in how the mil­i­tary talks about war­fare in space is that the nation’s top two strate­gic adversaries—China and Russia—are already test­ing capa­bil­i­ties that could destroy or dis­able a US mil­i­tary satel­lite.

    ...

    This week, Saltz­man laid out the mil­i­tary’s view of offen­sive weapons in space in per­haps the plainest lan­guage yet.

    “Space is a war-fight­ing domain,” Saltz­man said at the Space Force Asso­ci­a­tion’s Space­pow­er Con­fer­ence in Orlan­do, Flori­da. “Ten years ago, I couldn’t say that. That’s the start­ing point. Think about that. In 2014, we had senior lead­ers start to talk about space and war in the same sen­tence. They got kind of berat­ed by the senior lead­er­ship. So this is still a rel­a­tive­ly new con­di­tion when we’re talk­ing about war-fight­ing in space. I don’t think we should under­es­ti­mate the pow­er of that.”

    An alert pos­ture

    Gen. Stephen Whit­ing, the four-star chief of US Space Com­mand, iden­ti­fied “inte­grat­ed space fires”—again, these are actu­al offen­sive or defen­sive attacks against an ene­my vehicle—as his orga­ni­za­tion’s most press­ing need. These could be based in any domain—land, air, sea, or space—and aimed against tar­gets with­in and above the atmos­phere.

    So what would these weapons look like? They might be elec­tron­ic or cyber in nature, allow­ing US forces to hack a satel­lite or its ground-based sup­port net­work. Rus­sia has already done this, when hack­ers launched a cyber­at­tack on a com­mer­cial Euro­pean satel­lite com­mu­ni­ca­tions net­work in 2022, the same day the coun­try began its full-scale inva­sion of Ukraine.

    Then there’s direct­ed ener­gy, which would use a laser beam to blind or daz­zle satel­lite sen­sors in orbit. Direct­ed ener­gy weapons could be based on the ground or in space. There’s anoth­er option that would involve one satel­lite sidling up next to an adver­sary’s and using a claw or robot­ic arm to cap­ture it and take con­trol.

    Final­ly, there are the kinds of space weapons that can blow a satel­lite out of the sky. These anti­satel­lite weapons (ASATs) are per­haps the most low-tech solution—the Unit­ed States, Chi­na, Rus­sia, and India have open­ly demon­strat­ed them—but they come with dan­ger­ous side effects.

    For exam­ple, a Chi­nese ASAT mis­sile test in 2007 destroyed one of the coun­try’s own satel­lites, cre­at­ing more than 3,000 track­able debris objects in low-Earth orbit, the largest cloud of space debris in his­to­ry. The Unit­ed States per­formed a sim­i­lar ASAT mis­sile test against a satel­lite in 1985.

    ...

    Most recent­ly, news leaked from US gov­ern­ment sources in Feb­ru­ary that Rus­sia is devel­op­ing a nuclear ASAT weapon. If used, this would ren­der low-Earth orbit, a sec­tion of space stretch­ing sev­er­al hun­dred miles above Earth, unus­able for a year or more, accord­ing to John Plumb, the for­mer assis­tant sec­re­tary of defense for space pol­i­cy.

    US offi­cials said Rus­sia has­n’t placed a nuclear weapon in orbit yet, but if it did, the move would vio­late Arti­cle IV of the 1967 Out­er Space Treaty. Rus­sia is a par­ty to the treaty, which bans weapons of mass destruc­tion in space. Rus­si­a’s rep­re­sen­ta­tive at the UN Secu­ri­ty Coun­cil vetoed a res­o­lu­tion in April to reaf­firm this tenet of the Out­er Space Treaty and instead pro­posed a res­o­lu­tion to ban all weapons in space, which the Unit­ed States reject­ed. After all, US offi­cials say Rus­sia has already test­ed an ASAT weapon in orbit.

    And now, the US Space Force desires space weapons of its own.

    “We need joint all-domain fires to be able to do that, every­thing from across the gamut of cyber, non-kinet­ic, kinet­ic, and those can come from any domain. But we need to have the abil­i­ty to influ­ence tar­gets, just like every oth­er domain does,” Whit­ing said.

    Know­ing what we have

    At the con­fer­ence Tues­day, Ars asked Saltz­man if the Space Force will talk more about the capa­bil­i­ties it is deploy­ing in orbit. Can deter­rence work if adver­saries don’t know how the Space Force might respond to a threat?

    In the film Dr. Strangelove, the tit­u­lar char­ac­ter says that deter­rence is the art of pro­duc­ing in the mind of the ene­my the fear of attack­ing. At the end of the movie (spoil­er alert if you haven’t seen this 60-year-old film), a nuclear strike on the Sovi­et Union results in the auto­mat­ic acti­va­tion of a secret Russ­ian “dooms­day machine” that will destroy all life on Earth.

    Accord­ing to the plot, Rus­sia devel­oped the machine to dis­suade a US attack on its ter­ri­to­ry. Dr. Strangelove, a zany, mer­cu­r­ial mil­i­tary advis­er in the film, apt­ly states: “The whole point of a dooms­day machine is lost if you keep it a secret!”

    Saltz­man made it clear that the Space Force can’t stop at devel­op­ing defen­sive coun­ter­mea­sures against an attack on a US satel­lite. One of these defen­sive mea­sures is resilien­cy, where the Space Force puts up con­stel­la­tions of hun­dreds or thou­sands of satel­lites to pro­vide the sur­veil­lance, com­mu­ni­ca­tion, and mis­sile-track­ing func­tions pre­vi­ous­ly the domain of small­er num­bers of bil­lion-dol­lar satellites—big, juicy tar­gets in the eyes of an ene­my in con­flict with the Unit­ed States. The Pen­ta­gon is well on the way to deploy­ing these mega-con­stel­la­tions, but mil­i­tary com­mands cau­tion this is not enough.

    “We have to build capa­bil­i­ties that pro­vide our lead­er­ship offen­sive and defen­sive options,” he said in response to a ques­tion from Ars. “Weapons sys­tems aren’t inher­ent­ly offen­sive or defense. Is an air­craft car­ri­er offen­sive or defense? Yes. Is an F‑35 offen­sive or defense? Yes. So when we get in this fight about whether or not a spacecraft—is this an offen­sive weapon? No, it’s just a capa­bil­i­ty.”

    ...

    These wartime sce­nar­ios in space range from a one-off cyber­at­tack against a satel­lite system—like Rus­si­a’s move against a Viasat com­mer­cial satel­lite net­work in 2022—to a destruc­tive nuclear det­o­na­tion in Earth orbit, some­thing US offi­cials fear Rus­sia might be prepar­ing to do. The Pen­ta­gon is also con­cerned with the abil­i­ty of poten­tial adver­saries, par­tic­u­lar­ly Chi­na, to use their satel­lites to bol­ster their land, air, and naval forces, sim­i­lar to the way the US mil­i­tary leans on its space-based capa­bil­i­ties.

    One con­cept pro­posed by some gov­ern­ment and indus­try offi­cials is to launch rov­ing “defend­er” satel­lites into orbit, with the sole pur­pose of guard­ing high-val­ue US satel­lites against an attack. These would­n’t be able to effec­tive­ly defend a space­craft against a ground-based anti-satel­lite mis­sile, which can launch with­out warn­ing. But a space-based attack might involve an ene­my satel­lite tak­ing days or weeks to move close to a US satel­lite due to lim­i­ta­tions in maneu­ver­abil­i­ty and the tyran­ny of orbital mechan­ics.

    Any defend­er satel­lites deployed by the US mil­i­tary would need high­ly effi­cient propul­sion or have a design that enables refu­el­ing in orbit. Tory Bruno, CEO of Unit­ed Launch Alliance, wrote about the defend­er con­cept in a Medi­um post ear­li­er this month.

    Bruno added some con­text Thurs­day in a round­table dis­cus­sion with reporters, describ­ing the defend­er con­cept as “a light­ning fast, long-range, lethal, if nec­es­sary, vehi­cle to defend our assets on orbit.”

    Essen­tial­ly, the idea would take some­thing like a space tug or upper stage—an upgrad­ed ver­sion of ULA’s own Cen­taur V upper stage could do the job just fine, Bruno said—and leave it in orbit on alert to respond to any threats against US or allied satel­lites.

    “You can move one of these vehi­cles in hours, inter­dict what might be an attack, and stop the attack,” Bruno said. “So that becomes a very pow­er­ful deter­rent because we move from what we are work­ing toward right now, which is ‘go ahead and attack me and dis­able sev­er­al of my satel­lites, and I can still keep doing my job,’ to a place where you say, ‘Go ahead and attack. It’s not going to work. You’re not going to be able to dis­able any­thing.’ ”

    The case of Chi­na

    Brig. Gen. Antho­ny Mastalir, who leads US Space Forces in the Indo-Pacif­ic region, has prob­a­bly the clos­est eye on Chi­na’s space pro­gram of any mil­i­tary com­man­der. His area of respon­si­bil­i­ty includes the South Chi­na Sea, where Chi­na has expand­ed its mil­i­tary foot­print and could one day threat­en Tai­wan, a US ally.

    Mastalir said Chi­na is “copy­ing the US play­book” with the way it inte­grates satel­lites into more con­ven­tion­al mil­i­tary oper­a­tions on land, in the air, and at sea. “Their spe­cif­ic goals are to be able to track and tar­get US high-val­ue assets at the time and place of their choos­ing,” Mastalir said.

    Chi­na’s strat­e­gy, known as Anti-Access/Area Denial, or A2AD, is cen­tered on pre­vent­ing US forces from access­ing inter­na­tion­al waters extend­ing hun­dreds or thou­sands of miles from main­land Chi­na. Some of the islands occu­pied by Chi­na with­in the last 15 years are clos­er to the Philip­pines, anoth­er treaty ally, than to Chi­na itself.

    The A2AD strat­e­gy first “extend­ed to the first island chain (bound­ed by the Philip­pines), and now the sec­ond island chain (extend­ing to the US ter­ri­to­ry of Guam), and even­tu­al­ly all the way to the West Coast of Cal­i­for­nia,” Mastalir said.

    US offi­cials say Chi­na has based anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-bal­lis­tic weapons in the region, and many of these sys­tems rely on satel­lite track­ing and tar­get­ing. Mastalir said his pri­or­i­ty at Indo-Pacif­ic Com­mand, head­quar­tered in Hawaii, is to defend US and allied satel­lites, or “blue assets,” and chal­lenge “red assets” to break the Chi­nese mil­i­tary’s “long-range kill chains and pro­tect the joint force from space-enabled attack.”

    What this means is the Space Force wants to have the abil­i­ty to dis­able or destroy the satel­lites Chi­na would use to pro­vide com­mu­ni­ca­tion, com­mand, track­ing, nav­i­ga­tion, or sur­veil­lance sup­port dur­ing an attack against the US or its allies.

    Mastalir said he believes Chi­na’s space-based capa­bil­i­ties are “suf­fi­cient” to achieve the coun­try’s mil­i­tary ambi­tions, what­ev­er they are. “The sophis­ti­ca­tion of their sen­sors is cer­tain­ly con­tin­u­ing to increase—the inter­con­nect­ed­ness, the inter­op­er­abil­i­ty. They’re a pac­ing chal­lenge for a rea­son,” he said.

    “We’re see­ing all signs point to being able to tar­get US air­craft car­ri­ers... high-val­ue assets in the air like tankers, AWACS (Air­borne Warn­ing And Con­trol Sys­tem),” Mastalir said. “This is a strat­e­gy to keep the US from inter­ven­ing, and that’s what their space archi­tec­ture is.”

    That’s not accept­able to Pen­ta­gon offi­cials, so Space Force per­son­nel are now train­ing for orbital war­fare. Just don’t expect to know the specifics of any of these weapons sys­tems any time soon.

    ...

    A new admin­is­tra­tion

    The Space Force will like­ly receive new pol­i­cy direc­tives after Pres­i­dent-elect Don­ald Trump takes office in Jan­u­ary. The Trump tran­si­tion team has­n’t iden­ti­fied any changes com­ing for the Space Force, but a list of pol­i­cy pro­pos­als known as Project 2025 may offer some clues.

    Pub­lished by the Her­itage Foun­da­tion, a con­ser­v­a­tive think tank, Project 2025 calls for the Pen­ta­gon to piv­ot the Space Force from a most­ly defen­sive pos­ture toward offen­sive weapons sys­tems. Christo­pher Miller, who served as act­ing sec­re­tary of defense in the first Trump admin­is­tra­tion, authored the mil­i­tary sec­tion of Project 2025.

    Miller wrote that the Space Force should “reestab­lish offen­sive capa­bil­i­ties to guar­an­tee a favor­able bal­ance of forces, effi­cient­ly man­age the full deter­rence spec­trum, and seri­ous­ly com­pli­cate ene­my cal­cu­la­tions of a suc­cess­ful first strike against US space assets.”

    Trump dis­avowed Project 2025 dur­ing the cam­paign, but since the elec­tion, he has nom­i­nat­ed sev­er­al of the pol­i­cy agen­da’s authors and con­trib­u­tors to key admin­is­tra­tion posts.

    ...

    Regard­less of the direc­tion Trump takes with the Space Force, Saltz­man said the ser­vice is already think­ing about what to do to main­tain what the Pen­ta­gon now calls “space superiority”—a twist on the term air supe­ri­or­i­ty, which might have seemed equal­ly as fan­ci­ful at the dawn of mil­i­tary avi­a­tion more than a cen­tu­ry ago.

    “That’s the rea­son we’re the Space Force,” Saltz­man said. “So admin­is­tra­tion to admin­is­tra­tion, that’s still going to be true. Now, it’s just about resourc­ing and the dis­cus­sions about what we want to do and when we want to do it, and we’re ready to have those dis­cus­sions.”

    ————-

    “The US mil­i­tary is now talk­ing open­ly about going on the attack in space” by Stephen Clark; Ars Tech­ni­ca; 12/13/2024

    “Space is a war-fight­ing domain,” Saltz­man said at the Space Force Asso­ci­a­tion’s Space­pow­er Con­fer­ence in Orlan­do, Flori­da. “Ten years ago, I couldn’t say that. That’s the start­ing point. Think about that. In 2014, we had senior lead­ers start to talk about space and war in the same sen­tence. They got kind of berat­ed by the senior lead­er­ship. So this is still a rel­a­tive­ly new con­di­tion when we’re talk­ing about war-fight­ing in space. I don’t think we should under­es­ti­mate the pow­er of that.””

    Space isn’t just space any­more. It’s a war-fight­ing domain. That was the mes­sage deliv­ered to the audi­ence of the Space Force Asso­ci­a­tion’s Space­pow­er Con­fer­ence by Space Force’s Gen­er­al Chance Saltz­man. And as we can see, the US mil­i­tary isn’t just prepar­ing to fight in space. The plans are for dom­i­na­tion in space, includ­ing both the capac­i­ty to neu­tral­ize ene­my satel­lites while also pro­tect­ing US assets. Every­thing from direct­ed ener­gy or cyber­at­tacks on satel­lites, to phys­i­cal­ly tak­ing con­trol of ene­my satel­lites with anoth­er satel­lite, along with rov­ing “defend­er” satel­lites to pro­tect against ene­my satel­lites aim­ing to do the same. Which is the kind of full spec­trum plan­ning that sug­gests there’s going to be A LOT more mil­i­tary assets in orbit in com­ing years:

    ...
    Gen. Stephen Whit­ing, the four-star chief of US Space Com­mand, iden­ti­fied “inte­grat­ed space fires”—again, these are actu­al offen­sive or defen­sive attacks against an ene­my vehicle—as his orga­ni­za­tion’s most press­ing need. These could be based in any domain—land, air, sea, or space—and aimed against tar­gets with­in and above the atmos­phere.

    So what would these weapons look like? They might be elec­tron­ic or cyber in nature, allow­ing US forces to hack a satel­lite or its ground-based sup­port net­work. Rus­sia has already done this, when hack­ers launched a cyber­at­tack on a com­mer­cial Euro­pean satel­lite com­mu­ni­ca­tions net­work in 2022, the same day the coun­try began its full-scale inva­sion of Ukraine.

    Then there’s direct­ed ener­gy, which would use a laser beam to blind or daz­zle satel­lite sen­sors in orbit. Direct­ed ener­gy weapons could be based on the ground or in space. There’s anoth­er option that would involve one satel­lite sidling up next to an adver­sary’s and using a claw or robot­ic arm to cap­ture it and take con­trol.

    ...

    One con­cept pro­posed by some gov­ern­ment and indus­try offi­cials is to launch rov­ing “defend­er” satel­lites into orbit, with the sole pur­pose of guard­ing high-val­ue US satel­lites against an attack. These would­n’t be able to effec­tive­ly defend a space­craft against a ground-based anti-satel­lite mis­sile, which can launch with­out warn­ing. But a space-based attack might involve an ene­my satel­lite tak­ing days or weeks to move close to a US satel­lite due to lim­i­ta­tions in maneu­ver­abil­i­ty and the tyran­ny of orbital mechan­ics.

    Any defend­er satel­lites deployed by the US mil­i­tary would need high­ly effi­cient propul­sion or have a design that enables refu­el­ing in orbit. Tory Bruno, CEO of Unit­ed Launch Alliance, wrote about the defend­er con­cept in a Medi­um post ear­li­er this month.

    Bruno added some con­text Thurs­day in a round­table dis­cus­sion with reporters, describ­ing the defend­er con­cept as “a light­ning fast, long-range, lethal, if nec­es­sary, vehi­cle to defend our assets on orbit.”

    Essen­tial­ly, the idea would take some­thing like a space tug or upper stage—an upgrad­ed ver­sion of ULA’s own Cen­taur V upper stage could do the job just fine, Bruno said—and leave it in orbit on alert to respond to any threats against US or allied satel­lites.

    “You can move one of these vehi­cles in hours, inter­dict what might be an attack, and stop the attack,” Bruno said. “So that becomes a very pow­er­ful deter­rent because we move from what we are work­ing toward right now, which is ‘go ahead and attack me and dis­able sev­er­al of my satel­lites, and I can still keep doing my job,’ to a place where you say, ‘Go ahead and attack. It’s not going to work. You’re not going to be able to dis­able any­thing.’ ”
    ...

    And yet, no mat­ter how many defend­er satel­lites the US puts in orbit, it’s not clear what kind of defense there is against anti­satel­lite weapons (ASATs) like mis­siles. Which brings us to the warn­ings we got back in Feb­ru­ary of this year about Russ­ian nuclear ASAT test involv­ing an orbital EMP that, accord­ing to John Plumb, the for­mer assis­tant sec­re­tary of defense for space pol­i­cy, would ren­der low-Earth orbit unus­able for a year or more. As Plumb explained at the time, the ini­tial EMP could take out some satel­lites with the radi­a­tion left in orbit destroy­ing the rest. Orbital radi­a­tion that could poten­tial­ly be scrubbed by HAARP, let’s not for­get. It’s unclear if the “unus­able” descrip­tion is also a ref­er­ence to a kind of low-orbit Kessler Syn­drome sce­nario. Either way, note how the US pro­ceed­ed to veto a Russ­ian pro­pos­al at the UN this year that pro­posed to ban ALL weapons in space. What was the US’s jus­ti­fi­ca­tion for this? The Russ­ian ASAT tests. Yep, the claims that Rus­sia has already test­ed ASATS of its own was the rea­son for turn­ing down a pro­pos­al to ban all weapons in space. It’s not the most com­pelling argu­ment. But one thing these ASAT warn­ings make pret­ty obvi­ous is that one of the ‘fea­tures’ of this new space-based bat­tle­field is the real­i­ty that there’s a sig­nif­i­cant lim­it to the kind of defens­es that can be put in place. Objects in orbit are inher­ent­ly vul­ner­a­ble, espe­cial­ly low orbit. Which is also a reminder that the log­ic of mutu­al­ly assured destruc­tion is like­ly to be extend­ed to orbit. In oth­er words, a defen­sive strat­e­gy based on the cred­i­ble threat of being able to retal­i­ate offen­sive­ly if nec­es­sary:

    ...
    Final­ly, there are the kinds of space weapons that can blow a satel­lite out of the sky. These anti­satel­lite weapons (ASATs) are per­haps the most low-tech solution—the Unit­ed States, Chi­na, Rus­sia, and India have open­ly demon­strat­ed them—but they come with dan­ger­ous side effects.

    For exam­ple, a Chi­nese ASAT mis­sile test in 2007 destroyed one of the coun­try’s own satel­lites, cre­at­ing more than 3,000 track­able debris objects in low-Earth orbit, the largest cloud of space debris in his­to­ry. The Unit­ed States per­formed a sim­i­lar ASAT mis­sile test against a satel­lite in 1985.

    ...

    Most recent­ly, news leaked from US gov­ern­ment sources in Feb­ru­ary that Rus­sia is devel­op­ing a nuclear ASAT weapon. If used, this would ren­der low-Earth orbit, a sec­tion of space stretch­ing sev­er­al hun­dred miles above Earth, unus­able for a year or more, accord­ing to John Plumb, the for­mer assis­tant sec­re­tary of defense for space pol­i­cy.

    US offi­cials said Rus­sia has­n’t placed a nuclear weapon in orbit yet, but if it did, the move would vio­late Arti­cle IV of the 1967 Out­er Space Treaty. Rus­sia is a par­ty to the treaty, which bans weapons of mass destruc­tion in space. Rus­si­a’s rep­re­sen­ta­tive at the UN Secu­ri­ty Coun­cil vetoed a res­o­lu­tion in April to reaf­firm this tenet of the Out­er Space Treaty and instead pro­posed a res­o­lu­tion to ban all weapons in space, which the Unit­ed States reject­ed. After all, US offi­cials say Rus­sia has already test­ed an ASAT weapon in orbit.

    And now, the US Space Force desires space weapons of its own.

    “We need joint all-domain fires to be able to do that, every­thing from across the gamut of cyber, non-kinet­ic, kinet­ic, and those can come from any domain. But we need to have the abil­i­ty to influ­ence tar­gets, just like every oth­er domain does,” Whit­ing said.
    ...

    And that brings us back to the reliance on mega-con­stel­la­tions like Star­link and its coun­ter­part built for the Pen­ta­gon, StarShield. “Resilien­cy”, in the form of large num­bers of redun­dant cheap satel­lites, is going to be a key part of the Pen­tagon’s strat­e­gy. Which, again, isn’t just a recipe for Kessler Syn­drome, but also a recipe for a mega-con­stel­la­tion space-race...which makes the risk of Kessler syn­drome all the more seri­ous. Which is a reminder that the con­cept of “resilien­cy” on space is like­ly to shift over time. Today, “resilien­cy” means hav­ing lots and lots of satel­lites. In future, “resilien­cy” like­ly to also include a satel­lite’s abil­i­ty to with­stand the impact of orbital space junk:

    ...
    Saltz­man made it clear that the Space Force can’t stop at devel­op­ing defen­sive coun­ter­mea­sures against an attack on a US satel­lite. One of these defen­sive mea­sures is resilien­cy, where the Space Force puts up con­stel­la­tions of hun­dreds or thou­sands of satel­lites to pro­vide the sur­veil­lance, com­mu­ni­ca­tion, and mis­sile-track­ing func­tions pre­vi­ous­ly the domain of small­er num­bers of bil­lion-dol­lar satellites—big, juicy tar­gets in the eyes of an ene­my in con­flict with the Unit­ed States. The Pen­ta­gon is well on the way to deploy­ing these mega-con­stel­la­tions, but mil­i­tary com­mands cau­tion this is not enough.

    “We have to build capa­bil­i­ties that pro­vide our lead­er­ship offen­sive and defen­sive options,” he said in response to a ques­tion from Ars. “Weapons sys­tems aren’t inher­ent­ly offen­sive or defense. Is an air­craft car­ri­er offen­sive or defense? Yes. Is an F‑35 offen­sive or defense? Yes. So when we get in this fight about whether or not a spacecraft—is this an offen­sive weapon? No, it’s just a capa­bil­i­ty.”

    ...

    These wartime sce­nar­ios in space range from a one-off cyber­at­tack against a satel­lite system—like Rus­si­a’s move against a Viasat com­mer­cial satel­lite net­work in 2022—to a destruc­tive nuclear det­o­na­tion in Earth orbit, some­thing US offi­cials fear Rus­sia might be prepar­ing to do. The Pen­ta­gon is also con­cerned with the abil­i­ty of poten­tial adver­saries, par­tic­u­lar­ly Chi­na, to use their satel­lites to bol­ster their land, air, and naval forces, sim­i­lar to the way the US mil­i­tary leans on its space-based capa­bil­i­ties.
    ...

    Let’s also not for­get that Chi­na has already start­ed build­ing its own satel­lite mega-con­stel­la­tions. So when we see Space Force’s lead­er­ship already talk­ing about the plans to dis­able or destroy Chi­na’s abil­i­ty to use its satel­lites to pro­vide com­mu­ni­ca­tion, com­mand, track­ing, nav­i­ga­tion, or sur­veil­lance sup­port dur­ing an attack against the US or its allies, keep in mind that this is pro­pos­al to some­how over­whelm the “resilien­cy” of those Chi­nese mega-con­stel­la­tions. Which is also a reminder that the US is pre­sum­ably devel­op­ing ASAT capa­bil­i­ties that could dis­able an entire mega-con­stel­la­tion. And won’t nec­es­sar­i­ly only use those capa­bil­i­ties in response to a Chi­nese attack on US space assets. Chi­na sim­ply using its own satel­lites to coor­di­nate its mil­i­tary to fight the US is poten­tial­ly going to be a jus­ti­fi­ca­tion for tak­ing down Chi­nese satel­lites. It’s like mutu­al­ly assured destruc­tion with a first strike option:

    ...
    Mastalir said Chi­na is “copy­ing the US play­book” with the way it inte­grates satel­lites into more con­ven­tion­al mil­i­tary oper­a­tions on land, in the air, and at sea. “Their spe­cif­ic goals are to be able to track and tar­get US high-val­ue assets at the time and place of their choos­ing,” Mastalir said.

    Chi­na’s strat­e­gy, known as Anti-Access/Area Denial, or A2AD, is cen­tered on pre­vent­ing US forces from access­ing inter­na­tion­al waters extend­ing hun­dreds or thou­sands of miles from main­land Chi­na. Some of the islands occu­pied by Chi­na with­in the last 15 years are clos­er to the Philip­pines, anoth­er treaty ally, than to Chi­na itself.

    The A2AD strat­e­gy first “extend­ed to the first island chain (bound­ed by the Philip­pines), and now the sec­ond island chain (extend­ing to the US ter­ri­to­ry of Guam), and even­tu­al­ly all the way to the West Coast of Cal­i­for­nia,” Mastalir said.

    US offi­cials say Chi­na has based anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-bal­lis­tic weapons in the region, and many of these sys­tems rely on satel­lite track­ing and tar­get­ing. Mastalir said his pri­or­i­ty at Indo-Pacif­ic Com­mand, head­quar­tered in Hawaii, is to defend US and allied satel­lites, or “blue assets,” and chal­lenge “red assets” to break the Chi­nese mil­i­tary’s “long-range kill chains and pro­tect the joint force from space-enabled attack.”

    What this means is the Space Force wants to have the abil­i­ty to dis­able or destroy the satel­lites Chi­na would use to pro­vide com­mu­ni­ca­tion, com­mand, track­ing, nav­i­ga­tion, or sur­veil­lance sup­port dur­ing an attack against the US or its allies.

    Mastalir said he believes Chi­na’s space-based capa­bil­i­ties are “suf­fi­cient” to achieve the coun­try’s mil­i­tary ambi­tions, what­ev­er they are. “The sophis­ti­ca­tion of their sen­sors is cer­tain­ly con­tin­u­ing to increase—the inter­con­nect­ed­ness, the inter­op­er­abil­i­ty. They’re a pac­ing chal­lenge for a rea­son,” he said.

    “We’re see­ing all signs point to being able to tar­get US air­craft car­ri­ers... high-val­ue assets in the air like tankers, AWACS (Air­borne Warn­ing And Con­trol Sys­tem),” Mastalir said. “This is a strat­e­gy to keep the US from inter­ven­ing, and that’s what their space archi­tec­ture is.”

    That’s not accept­able to Pen­ta­gon offi­cials, so Space Force per­son­nel are now train­ing for orbital war­fare. Just don’t expect to know the specifics of any of these weapons sys­tems any time soon.
    ...

    Final­ly, note how it’s not just the Pen­ta­gon mak­ing these kinds of elab­o­rate space war­fare plans. Project 2025 even includes a call to piv­ot Space Force from a most­ly defen­sive pos­ture toward offen­sive weapons sys­tems. Which is a reminder that the deep state forces behind Project 2025 have ambi­tions to reshape more than just the Unit­ed States. They have major wars in mind too:

    ...
    The Space Force will like­ly receive new pol­i­cy direc­tives after Pres­i­dent-elect Don­ald Trump takes office in Jan­u­ary. The Trump tran­si­tion team has­n’t iden­ti­fied any changes com­ing for the Space Force, but a list of pol­i­cy pro­pos­als known as Project 2025 may offer some clues.

    Pub­lished by the Her­itage Foun­da­tion, a con­ser­v­a­tive think tank, Project 2025 calls for the Pen­ta­gon to piv­ot the Space Force from a most­ly defen­sive pos­ture toward offen­sive weapons sys­tems. Christo­pher Miller, who served as act­ing sec­re­tary of defense in the first Trump admin­is­tra­tion, authored the mil­i­tary sec­tion of Project 2025.

    Miller wrote that the Space Force should “reestab­lish offen­sive capa­bil­i­ties to guar­an­tee a favor­able bal­ance of forces, effi­cient­ly man­age the full deter­rence spec­trum, and seri­ous­ly com­pli­cate ene­my cal­cu­la­tions of a suc­cess­ful first strike against US space assets.”

    Trump dis­avowed Project 2025 dur­ing the cam­paign, but since the elec­tion, he has nom­i­nat­ed sev­er­al of the pol­i­cy agen­da’s authors and con­trib­u­tors to key admin­is­tra­tion posts.
    ...

    They have a blue­print, all ready to go. And we can be con­fi­dent the plan­ning for this goes well beyond just what they decid­ed to release to the pub­lic. Space may be huge, but that does­n’t mean there’s enough space for more than one mil­i­tary super­pow­er. That’s the US’s pol­i­cy now. If you attack US space assets, your space-based infra­struc­ture will be ren­dered inop­er­a­ble one way or anoth­er. Or if you use your satel­lites to fight a war against the US. Either way, US adver­saries’ space-based assets are now fair mil­i­tary tar­gets. It’s mutu­al­ly assured destruc­tion in orbit, but also a gen­er­al promise of destruc­tion should the US deter­mine it nec­es­sary. That’s how space suprema­cy works.

    Posted by Pterrafractyl | December 18, 2024, 7:34 pm

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