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This program was recorded in one, 60-minute segment.
Introduction: With reportage of ISIS dominating the news cycle in the aftermath of the second Paris massacre of this calendar year (“Machiavelli 3.0”?) and the San Bernardino shootings, we explore the genesis and operations of the organization. (Please examine this show–the description for it in particular–to see the extent to which it frames the political rhetoric on the Islamist and “Euro-reactionary” sides. That rhetorical dynamic has only increased in the wake of the most recent attacks.)
We begin by reviewing the fact that evidence that CIA is aiding the so-called “moderate” rebels in Syria, and by extension, ISIS, is strong. They are working with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in that capacity.
This should be evaluated against the background of: the use of Islamists as proxy warriors against Russia and China; the transnational corporations embrace of the “corporatist” economics of the Muslim Brotherhood (parent institution of al-Qaeda and its related organizations) and the highly mutable nature of the Islamist militants in Syria (elements of the Nusra Front–an al-Qaeda affiliate–have readily embraced ISIS).
After reviewing ISIS founder al-Baghradi’s “former” membership in the Muslim Brotherhood, we examine several articles relating information from a de-classified DIA document that details the support of American allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar for the establishment of a Sunni caliphate in Syria as part of the pressure on President Assad.
Even Vice President Joe Biden noted the role of America’s allies in the growth of ISIS (failing to mention covert support for their efforts by elements of CIA.)
A VERY telling comment was made in October by the chief of Turkish intelligence. In effect, it was an oblique endorsement of ISIS.
The program reviews a short quote from Zbigniew Brzezinski, read by Elizabeth Gould in FTR #872. Brzezinski is quite open about the utility of using Islamists to destabilize Russia and China.
We note in that context that the Al Kifah organization switched its focus from supporting the Mujahadin in Afghanistan to supporting the Islamists from Chechnya. ISIS appears to have drawn heavily on Chechnyan jihadists and now Chechens have materialized in Ukraine.
Program Highlights Include:
- ISIS parking their cash in Bitcoin.
- ISIS using the Berlin-based Telegram messaging service for their communiques.
- Review of ISIS having derived their combat expertise from its Chechen component.
- Review of ISIS-linked Chechens working with Pravy Sektor in Ukraine.
- Review of the Ukrainian UNA-UNSO having fought in Chechnya and the Caucasus, apparently forging the ISIS-Chechen/Pravy Sektor nexus.
- Review of the theories of non-violent theoretician Gene Sharp, who held positions associated with the “liberal” element of the U.S. intelligence apparatus. Sharp’s work figured in the Arab Spring (which precipitated the Syrian civil war) and in the so-called “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine, which set the stage for the Maidan coup.
1a. The evidence that elements of CIA is aiding the so-called “moderate” rebels in Syria, and by extension, ISIS, is strong. They are working with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in that capacity.
A small number of C.I.A. officers are operating secretly in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms to fight the Syrian government, according to American officials and Arab intelligence officers.
The weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and some antitank weapons, are being funneled mostly across the Turkish border by way of a shadowy network of intermediaries including Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and paid for by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the officials said. . . .
1b. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been identified by key Muslim Brotherhood cleric Youssef Qaradawi as a “former” member of the Muslim Brotherhood. In the article below, note that Qaradawi notes the key terrorist leaders that were “former” members of the Brotherhood. The “former” is to be taken with a huge dose of salt–Muslim fascists are as capable as European and American fascists at implementing “plausible deniability.”
The GMBDW has discovered what appears to be the first English translation of the video in which Global Muslim Brotherhood leader Youssef Qaradawi can be seen referring to what is almost certainly Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and explaining that he was once a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. At time 0:44 of the video, posted on the Brotherhoodwatch.co.uk website, Qaradawi refers to “this youngster” who once belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood but desiring leadership and after a period in prison (al-Baghdadi is thought to have spent five years in an American detention facility) went on to join the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/ISIS). It would appear that al-Baghdadi joins the ranks of other infamous terrorist leaders such as Ayman al-Zawahiri, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and Khalid Meshalal who once belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood before going on to joining leading terrorist organizations. In the video (time 1:12), Qaradawi also refers to unidentified “youngsters” from Qatar who also joined ISIS. . . . .
1c. Our recent series of programs featuring Peter Levenda discussing The Hitler Legacy highlighted the genesis of “weaponized Islam” and the use of jihadists as proxy warriors by Imperial Germany in World War I, Nazi Germany in World War II and, finally, the U.S. and the West during the Cold War.
In FTR #773, we noted the circumstances surrounding the Boston Marathon Bombing. In that program, we opined that the evidence suggested very strongly that elements of U.S. and Western intelligence were continuing to use jihadists as “proxy warriors,” in this case against Russia in the Caucasus.
In that program, we also suggested that the Boston Marathon Bombing itself, like 9/11, was “blowback” from our continued use of Islamic fascists as proxies.
We have also noted that, in effect, there is a proxy war component to the burgeoning Shia/Sunni conflict in the Middle East. Russia is supportive of the Shiite national combatant forces–Iran and Syria, primarily. This appears to be a gambit intended, in part, to shield Russia’s southern flank from further assault by Sunni proxy warriors.
There have been indications of Saudi pre-planning their anti-Shiite crusade. Prince Bandar spoke ominously of a day of retribution against Shiites. In addition, we have discussed the “corporatist” economic viewpoint of the Muslim Brotherhood, an ideology that frames that organization in the same context as Hitler, Mussolini and Imperial Japan. Although those countries were bitter opponents of the U.S. and democracy itself, their anti-communist and fascist [“corporatist”] ideology made them desirable to the transnational corporations that helped to spawn the fascist powers in the first place.
The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of Al-Qaeda, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and, very possibly ISIS. (It’s head is a “former” member of the Brotherhood.)
It should be understood that, for the transnationals and the GOP and other political elements that support them and are, in turn, supported by them, the U.S. casualties from World War II, the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. war in Afghanistan and the Boston Marathon Bombing are acceptable losses.” They are collateral damage, acceptable under the circumstances.
Attacks like the Paris incidents of 2015 also serve as a de facto “strategy of tension,” buttressing the far-right and the forces of reaction and justifying intrusions on civil liberties. Although we don’t think this is the primary motivation for the Western intelligence collaboration with Sunni jihadists, the benefits of the “blowback” are considerable and welcomed by fascists in this country and others.
A recent post by German Foreign Policy fleshes out this line of inquiry. (German Foreign Policy feeds along the lower right hand side of the front page of this website.)
“The Jihad’s Usefulness (II);” german-foreign-policy.com; 5/28/2015.
A recently declassified memo of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reveals that the West had supported the creation of the “Islamic State” (IS). Using jihadist forces has been a Western tradition for decades, as the Afghanistan war in the 1980s and an analysis of the Western power struggle with Iran (especially since 2003) show. In the 1980s, western countries — in collaboration with Saudi Arabia — had supported jihadists associated with Osama bin Laden, to defeat Soviet military forces in Afghanistan. Since at least ten years, they have been supporting Arab jihadists in an effort to weaken Iran’s main allies. These activities, accompanying the official “war on terror,” are “a very high-risk venture,” warn US intelligence officials. Saudi Arabia, one of Germany’s main allies in the Arab world, is playing a central role in supporting jihadists.
Against the Soviet Union
Western powers first used modern jihadism on a major scale during the 1980s in Afghanistan. In their quest to defeat the pro-Soviet Afghan government and the Soviet military stationed in Afghanistan, the United States, the Federal Republic of Germany and other NATO member countries banked, not only on the Afghan Mujahidin, but also Arab jihadists, including Osama bin Laden.[1] The then little known Osama bin Laden, and the other jihadists were promoted with Saudi Arabia’s financial and logistical support. The head of Saudi foreign intelligence at the time and Bin Laden’s contact person, Prince Turki al Faisal bin Abdulaziz al Saud played a major role. Today, he provides his political expertise to the “Advisory Council” of the Munich Security Conference.[2] The Afghan Mujahidin and the growing number of Arab jihadists finally succeeded in forcing the Soviet armed forces into withdrawing from Afghanistan. From the western perspective, jihadism had therefore proven its effectiveness as an instrument in fighting secular, socialist forces.
Against Iran
The al Qaeda attacks on US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam (August 7, 1998), the US counter attack on al Qaeda bases in Afghanistan (August 20, 1998) and particularly the 9/11 terror attacks and the ensuing war on Afghanistan seemed to have led to an irreparable rift between the West and the jihadists. However, the “war on terror” did not hinder the West from again engaging in punctual cooperation with Arab jihadists — this time, not a struggle against secular socialist forces, but an attempt at weakening Iran. With Iraq’s destruction starting in 2003, the US-led war alliance had neutralized Iran’s traditional rival, inadvertently opening an opportunity for Iran becoming a Persian Gulf regional hegemonic power. To prevent this, Western powers began an arms buildup of the Gulf dictatorships — particularly Saudi Arabia — to create a counterforce.[3] These dictatorships, in turn, soon began subverting Iran’s regional allies — for example Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah.
“High Risk Venture”
This has led to Arab jihadists being called back into action. In 2007, the US journalist Seymour Hersh exposed how the West, together with Saudi Arabia, was moving against Hezbollah in Lebanon.[4] While, on the one hand, for example the German Navy was participating in the UN mission off the Lebanese coast to prevent arms supplies from reaching this Shiite militia, Riyadh, on the other hand, was building up their most resolute enemies, the Salafists and jihadists, whose hatred of Shiite Muslims is as strong as their hatred of secular, socialist forces. In early 2007, government officials from various countries had confirmed to Hersh that the USA and Saudi Arabia were providing Lebanese Salafist and jihadist organizations with the means for fighting Hezbollah. A Lebanese government official told Hersh, “we have a liberal attitude, allowing those al Qaeda groups to maintain a presence here.” A former agent from the United States explicitly admitted, “we’re financing a lot of bad guys with some serious potential unintended consequences. It’s a very high-risk venture.”
A Salafist Principality
The fact that the West is following this same strategy in the war in Syria has been confirmed in a memo, dating from August 2012, from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and made public last week. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[5]) According to the memo, the creation of a “Salafist principality” in eastern Syria was seen as advantageous — to deprive the “Shiite expansion,” emanating from Iran, its “strategic depth” in Syria. The “Islamic State” (IS), in fact, has evolved from that “Salafist principality.”
The Bandar Plan
The western powers along with their main regional allies — Turkey and Saudi Arabia — have actively built up the Salafist and jihadist militias, in Syria, with the ex-Saudi Ambassador to the United States (1983 — 2005), Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud playing a decisive role. In his function as General Secretary of the Saudi National Security Council (2005), Bandar bin Sultan supported the Lebanese Salafists, and as head of the Saudi intelligence services, (2012), he was also involved in the Syrian war. The “Bandar Plan,” named after him, called for forming and arming insurgent militias in Syria. In fact, this refers to the — primarily Salafist — military units being financed by Saudi Arabia. The plan also calls for the infiltration of Saudi agents into al Qaeda allied groups and using other means to influence those jihadist militias, where infiltration proved unfeasible. Within this framework Saudi Arabia even provided aid to IS, albeit the financing, in this case, was inofficial, furnished by private jihadist supporters, according to an Israeli analysis published in 2014.[6] Only after the IS began expanding in Iraq, in early 2014, and began creating the situation that the DIA had warned of in August 2012,[7] was Bandar bin Sultan relieved of his duties and flown to the USA “for medical treatment.” In the summer of 2014, western countries found themselves compelled to militarily intervene against IS, which was gathering strength. This is the IS, the West had paternalistically watched taking its first steps in the struggle against the government of President Assad, their common enemy.
Destructive Potential
Even this has not put an end to the West’s use of jihadists. Most recently, the US-led “anti-IS coalition” stood by watching as IS drove Syrian government troops out of Palmyra, a strategically important city — a welcome support in the war on President Assad’s government. According to reports, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have “again been closely collaborating” since March. Of course, in the war on Syria “they do not have their sights on the IS, but rather target Assad” — Riyadh and Ankara’s more polite formulation of the standard Salafist and jihadist demand.[8] Western strategists have even begun proposing using jihadists in the struggle against the jihadists of IS, which has become much too powerful. According to a recent website article of the US “Foreign Affairs” journal, the al Qaeda should not be allowed to be further weakened. Al Qaeda must be allowed to continue to exist to keep its supporters from defecting to IS. Therefore the terrorist organization should be kept “afloat and [Aiman az-] Zawahiri alive.”[9] Jihadists are only being fought, if they become too powerful — as in the case of IS — or if they begin to attack western targets. Otherwise, their destructive potential is considered a western secret asset in its war on common enemies.
[1] More information on the Jihadists in Afghanistan and the West in: Steve Coll: Ghost Wars. The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001. New York 2004.
[2] See Old Allies and Good Guys, Bad Guys.
[3] See Gulf Stability and Hegemonic Conflict at the Gulf (II).
[4] Seymour M. Hersh: The Redirection. Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism? www.newyorker.com 05.03.2007.
[5] See Vom Nutzen des Jihad (I) and A Salafist Principality.
[6] Udi Dekel, Orit Perlov: The Saudi Arabia and Kuwait “Outposts Project”: Al-Qaeda and Its Affiliates. The Institute for National Security Studies, INSS Insight No. 517, 16.02.2014.
[7] See Vom Nutzen des Jihad (I) and A Salafist Principality.
[8] Markus Bickel: Fortschritte und Rückschritte in Syrien. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 09.05.2015.
[9] Barak Mendelsohn: Accepting Al Qaeda. www.foreignaffairs.com 09.03.2015.
1d. German Foreign Policy article presents more of the text of the DIA document excerpted above.
“A Salafist Principality;” german-foreign-policy; 5/27/2015.
In August 2012, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) mentioned a possible “Salafist Principality” in Eastern Syria and a possible foundation of an “Islamic State”. german-foreign-policy.com documents excerpts from the DIA paper.
Department of Defense: Information report, not finally evaluated intelligence. 14-L-0552/DIA/287–293.The general situation:A. Internally, events are taking a clear sectarian direction.
B. The Salafist, the Muslim Brotherhood, and AQI are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria.
C. The West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey support the opposition, while Russia, China, and Iran support the regime.
...3. Al Qaeda — Iraq (AQI):A. AQI is familiar with Syria. AQI trained in Syria and then infiltrated into Iraq.
B. AQI supported the Syrian opposition from the beginning, both ideologically and through the media. AQI declared its opposition of Assad’s government because it considered it a sectarian regime targeting Sunnis.
...5. The population living on the border:A. The population living on the border has a social-tribal style, which is bound by strong tribal and familial marital ties.
B. Their sectarian affiliation unites the two sides when events happen in the region.
C. AQI had major pockets and bases on both sides of the border to facilitate the flow of materiel and recruits.
D. There was a regression of AQI in the western provinces of Iraq during the years of 2009 and 2010. However, after the rise of the insurgency in Syria, the religious and tribal powers in the regions began to sympathize with the sectarian uprising. This (sympathy) appeared in Friday prayer sermons, which called for volunteers to support the Sunnis in Syria.
...
8. The effects on Iraq:...
C. If the situation unravels there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and Der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran).
D. The deterioration of the situation has dire consequences on the Iraqi situation and are as follows:
1. This creates the ideal atmosphere for AQI to return to its old pockes in Mosul and Ramadi, and will provide a renewed momentum under the presumption of unifying the jihad among Sunni Iraq and Syria, and the rest of the Sunnis in the Arab world against what it considers one enemy, the dissenters. ISI could also declare an Islamic State through its union with other terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria, which will create grave danger in regards to unifying Iraq and the protection of its territory.
...
3. The renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the Arab world entering into Iraqi arena.
...
Judicial Watch has – for many years – obtained sensitive U.S. government documents through freedom of information requests and lawsuits.The government just produced documents to Judicial Watch in response to a freedom of information suit which show that the West has long supported ISIS. The documents were written by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency on August 12, 2012 … years before ISIS burst onto the world stage.
Here are screenshots from the documents. We have highlighted the relevant parts in yellow:
1f. Remarks by Vice President Joe Biden heightened suspicions about the West having mid-wived the birth of ISIS.
. . . . When asked by a student whether the United States should have acted earlier in Syria, Biden first explains that there was “no moderate middle” in the Syrian civil war, before changing the topic to talk about America’s allies:
“Our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria. The Turks were great friends, and I have a great relationship with Erdogan, [who] I just spent a lot of time with, [and] the Saudis, the Emirates, etcetera.
What were they doing? They were so determined to take down Assad, and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war, what did they do? They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad – except that the people who were being supplied, [they] were al-Nusra, and al-Qaeda, and the extremist elements of jihadis who were coming from other parts of the world.
Now, you think I’m exaggerating? Take a look. Where did all of this go? So now that’s happening, all of a sudden, everybody is awakened because this outfit called ISIL, which was al-Qaeda in Iraq, when they were essentially thrown out of Iraq, found open space and territory in [eastern] Syria, [and they] work with al-Nusra, who we declared a terrorist group early on. And we could not convince our colleagues to stop supplying them. . . .
So what happened? . . . .
2c. During a Skype interview back in October, Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey’s inteligence service, railed against Russia trying to suppress Syria’s Islamist revolution and asserted that “ISIS is a reality and we have to accept that we cannot eradicate a well-organized and popular establishment such as the Islamic State; therefore I urge my western colleagues to revise their mindset about Islamic political currents, put aside their cynical mentalité and thwart Vladimir Putin’s plans to crush Syrian Islamist revolutionaries.”
“Turkish Intelligence Chief: Putin’s Intervention in Syria Is Against Islam and International Law, ISIS Is a Reality and We Are Optimistic about the Future”; AWD News; 10/18/2015.
Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, known by the MIT acronym, has drawn a lot of attention and criticism for his controversial comments about ISIS.
Mr. Hakan Fidan, Turkish President’s staunchest ally, condemned Russian military intervention in Syria, accusing Moscow of trying to ‘smother’ Syria’s Islamist revolution and serious breach of United Nations law.
“ISIS is a reality and we have to accept that we cannot eradicate a well-organized and popular establishment such as the Islamic State; therefore I urge my western colleagues to revise their mindset about Islamic political currents, put aside their cynical mentalité and thwart Vladimir Putin’s plans to crush Syrian Islamist revolutionaries,” Anadolu News Agency quoted Mr. Fidan as saying on Sunday.
Fidan further added that in order to deal with the vast number of foreign Jihadists craving to travel to Syria, it is imperative that ISIS must set up a consulate or at least a political office in Istanbul. He underlined that it is Turkey’s firm belief to provide medical care for all injured people fleeing Russian ruthless airstrikes regardless of their political or religious affiliation.
Recently as the fierce clashes between Russian army and ISIS terrorists raging across the war-torn Syria, countless number of ISIS injured fighters enter the Turkish territory and are being admitted in the military hospitals namely those in Hatay Province. Over the last few days, the Syrian army with the support of Russian air cover could fend off ISIS forces in strategic provinces of Homs and Hama.
Emile Hokayem, a Washington-based Middle East analyst said that Turkey’s Erdogan and his oil-rich Arab allies have dual agendas in the war on terror and as a matter of fact they are supplying the Islamist militants with weapons and money, thus Russian intervention is considered a devastating setback for their efforts to overthrow Syrian secular President Assad.
Hokayem who was speaking via Skype from Washington, D.C. highlighted the danger of Turkish-backed terrorist groups and added that what is happening in Syria cannot be categorized as a genuine and popular revolution against dictatorship but rather it is a chaos orchestrated by Erdogan who is dreaming to revive this ancestor’s infamous Ottoman Empire.
3b. A major focal point of Chechnyan jihadism is in Boston, evolved from the Al Kifah organization, renamed CARE (not to be confused with the UN charity.) That milieu is inextricably linked with the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center.
“Boston’s Jihadist Past” by J.M. Berger; Foreign Policy; 4/22/2013.
When Boston Marathon runners rounded the bend from Beacon Street last week, they were in the home stretch of the race. As they poured through the closed intersection, they ran past a nondescript address: 510 Commonwealth Avenue.
The location was once home to an international support network that raised funds and recruited fighters for a jihadist insurgency against Russian rule over Chechnya, a region and a conflict that few of the runners had likely ever given any serious thought. . . .
. . . . (The most important Chechen jihadist group has disavowed the attack, but has not unequivocally ruled out the possibility of some kind of contact with Tamerlan.) . . .
. . . But if the lead pans out, it won’t be Boston’s first brush with that faraway war. During the 1980s and into the 1990s, Islamist foreign fighters operated robust recruiting and financing networks that supported Chechen jihadists from the United States, and Boston was home to one of the most significant centers: a branch of the Al Kifah Center based in Brooklyn, which would later be rechristened CARE International.
Al Kifah sprang from the military jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Through the end of the occupation, a network of centers in the United States helped support the efforts of Afghan and Arab mujahedeen, soliciting donations and recruiting fighters, including at least four from Boston who died in action (one of them a former Dunkin Donuts employee). When the war ended, those networks did not disappear; they refocused on other activities.
In Brooklyn, that network turned against the United States. The center’s leaders and many of its members helped facilitate the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, and they actively planned and attempted to execute a subsequent plot that summer to blow up the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels in New York, which would have killed thousands. . . .
. . . . When the FBI thwarted the tunnels plot, the Brooklyn Al Kifah office and most of the other satellite locations were shuttered. But in Boston, the work continued under a new name and with a new focus: supporting foreign-fighter efforts in Bosnia and Chechnya.
The following narrative is derived from interviews and thousands of pages of court exhibits, including correspondence, Al Kifah and CARE International publications, and telephone intercepts developed over a years-long series of FBI investigations into the charity that were made public as part of multiple terrorism-related prosecutions.
Established in the early 1990s, the Boston branch had emerged from the World Trade Center investigation relatively unscathed. Little more than two weeks after the bombing, the head of the Boston office, Emad Muntasser, changed his operation’s name from Al Kifah to CARE International (not to be confused with the legitimate charity of the same name). . . .
. . . . It took longer to build a case against CARE. In 2005, prosecutors in Boston went after the charity’s directors using the Al Capone strategy. Muntasser and fellow Boston-area CARE officials Samir Al Monla and Muhamed Mubayyid were charged with filing false tax returns and related crimes, having misrepresented their political and militant activity as relief for orphans and widows in order to obtain a nonprofit tax exemption.
The strategy was not as successful as it was with Capone. The defendants were convicted but received minimal sentences after years of appeals and legal disputes. Muntasser and Al Monla have since been released from prison and are living in the United States, according to public records databases. Mubayyid was deported after a short sentence and was last reported to be living in Australia. . . .
4. We highlight an article noting the military prowess and sophistication of ISIS. Critical to this analysis is the apparent role of the Chechens in the tactical development of the group. In FTR #381. we noted the role of the Al-Taqwa milieu in the funding of the Chechen separatists. U.S. and Western funding for the Chechens appears to have continued, as we saw in our analysis of the Boston Marathon Bombing.
In the context of U.S. and Western support for the OUN/B milieu in Ukraine, including the UNA-UNSO fighters who fought with the Chechens and elsewhere in the Caucasus, we may well be seeing “blowback” from what we have termed The Earth Island Boogie in the development of ISIS’ sophistication. As discussed in FTR #808, the UNA-UNSO fighters were initially composed largely of Ukrainian veterans of the Afghan war. The organization gave rise directly to Pravy Sektor.
As we have seen in FTR #878, Pravy Sektor is working with Chechen Islamists from ISIS, as well as Pan-Turkist Crimean Tatars.
“The Durability of Ukrainian Fascism” by Peter Lee; Strategic Culture; 6/9/2014.
. . . . One of Bandera’s lieutenants was Roman Shukhevych. In February 1945, Shukhevych issued an order stating, “In view of the success of the Soviet forces it is necessary to speed up the liquidation of the Poles, they must be totally wiped out, their villages burned … only the Polish population must be destroyed.”
As a matter of additional embarrassment, Shukhevych was also a commander in the Nachtigall (Nightingale) battalion organized by the Wehrmacht.
Today, a major preoccupation of Ukrainian nationalist historical scholarship is beating back rather convincing allegations by Russian, Polish, and Jewish historians that Nachtigall was an important and active participant in the massacre of Lviv Jews orchestrated by the German army upon its arrival in June 1941. . . .
. . . . Yuriy Shukhevych’s role in modern Ukrainian fascism is not simply that of an inspirational figurehead and reminder of his father’s anti-Soviet heroics for proud Ukrainian nationalists. He is a core figure in the emergence of the key Ukrainian fascist formation, Pravy Sektor and its paramilitary.
And Pravy Sektor’s paramilitary, the UNA-UNSO, is not an “unruly” collection of weekend-warrior-wannabes, as Mr. Higgins might believe.
UNA-UNSO was formed during the turmoil of the early 1990s, largely by ethnic Ukrainian veterans of the Soviet Union’s bitter war in Afghanistan. From the first, the UNA-UNSO has shown a taste for foreign adventures, sending detachments to Moscow in 1990 to oppose the Communist coup against Yeltsin, and to Lithuania in 1991. With apparently very good reason, the Russians have also accused UNA-UNSO fighters of participating on the anti-Russian side in Georgia and Chechnya.
After formal Ukrainian independence, the militia elected Yuriy Shukhevych—the son of OUN‑B commander Roman Shukhevych– as its leader and set up a political arm, which later became Pravy Sektor. . . .
5. Again, ISIS’ combat prowess is viewed by U.S. special operations forces as probably having stemmed from the Chechen component. Note that, in this story, ISIS is described as having evolved from AQI!
With the Obama White House left reeling from the “savage” slaughter of an American journalist held hostage by ISIS terrorists, military options are being considered against an adversary who officials say is growing in strength and is much more capable than the one faced when the group was called “al Qaeda-Iraq” during the U.S. war from 2003–2011.
ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, has been making a “tactical withdrawal” in recent days in the face of withering U.S. airstrikes from areas around Erbil in northern Iraq and from the major dam just north of Mosul it controlled for two nail-biting weeks, according to military officials monitoring their movements.
“These guys aren’t just bugging out, they’re tactically withdrawing. Very professional, well trained, motivated and equipped. They operate like a state with a military,” said one official who tracks ISIS closely. “These aren’t the same guys we fought in OIF (Operation Iraqi Freedom) who would just scatter when you dropped a bomb near them.”
ISIS appeared to have a sophisticated and well thought-out plan for establishing its “Islamic Caliphate” from northern Syria across the western and northern deserts of Iraq, many experts and officials have said, and support from hostage-taking, robbery and sympathetic donations to fund it. They use drones to gather overhead intel on targets and effectively commandeer captured military vehicles – including American Humvees — and munitions.
“They tried to push out as far as they thought they could and were fully prepared to pull back a little bit when we beat them back with airstrikes around Erbil. And they were fine with that, and ready to hold all of the ground they have now,” a second official told ABC News.
ISIS didn’t necessarily count on holding Mosul Dam, officials said, but scored a major propaganda victory on social media when they hoisted the black flag of the group over the facility that provides electricity and water to a large swath of Iraq, or could drown millions if breached.
U.S. special operations forces under the Joint Special Operations Command and U.S. Special Operations Command keep close tabs on the military evolution of ISIS and both its combat and terrorism — called “asymmetric” — capabilities, officials told ABC News. A primary reason is in anticipation of possibly fighting them, which a full squadron of special mission unit operators did in the Independence Day raid on an ISIS camp in Raqqah, Syria.
“They’re incredible fighters. ISIS teams in many places use special operations TTPs,” said the second official, who has considerable combat experience, using the military term for “tactics, techniques and procedures.”
In sobering press conference Friday, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said ISIS has shown that it is “as sophisticated and well-funded as any group that we have seen.”
“They’re beyond just a terrorist group. They marry ideology, a sophistication of strategic and tactical military prowess. They are tremendously well-funded,” he said. “This is beyond anything that we’ve seen.”
Prior ISIS’s recent public successes, the former chairman of the 9/11 Commission, which just released a tenth anniversary report on the threat of terrorism currently facing the homeland, said he was shocked at how little seems to be known inside the U.S. intelligence community about the Islamist army brutalizing Iraq as it has Syria.
“I was appalled at the ignorance,” former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean, who led the 9/11 Commission, told ABC News last week.
Kean, a Republican, who with vice chairman Lee Hamilton, a Democrat, recently met with about 20 top intelligence officials in preparation of the commission’s latest threat report, said many officials seemed both blind-sided and alarmed by the group’s rise, growth and competency.
“One official told me ‘I am more scared than at any time since 9/11,’” Kean recounted in a recent interview.
A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence defended the intelligence community’s tracking of ISIS, saying officials had “expressed concern” about the threat as far back as last year.
“The will to fight is inherently difficult to assess. Analysts must make assessments based on perceptions of command and control, leadership abilities, quality of experience, and discipline under fire — none of which can be understood with certainty until the first shots are fired,” ODNI spokesperson Brian Hale said.
Where did ISIS learn such sophisticated military methods, shown clearly after the first shots were fired?
“Probably the Chechens,” the one of the U.S. officials said.
A Chechen commander named Abu Omar al-Shishani — who officials say may have been killed in fighting near Mosul — is well known for commanding an international brigade within ISIS. Other Chechens have appeared within propaganda videos including one commander who was killed on video by an artillery burst near his SUV in Syria.
Earlier this year, ABC News reported on the secret history of U.S. special operations forces’ experiences battling highly capable Chechen fighters along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border since 2001. In addition, for decades Chechen separatists have waged asymmetric warfare against Russian forces for control of the Northern Caucasus.
The Secret Battles Between US Forces and Chechen Terrorists
In the battle against ISIS, many within American “SOF,” a term that comprises operators from all branches of the military and intelligence, are frustrated at being relegated by the President only to enabling U.S. airstrikes in Iraq. They are eager to fight ISIS more directly in combat operations — even if untethered, meaning unofficially and with little if any U.S. government support, according to some with close ties to the community.
“ISIS and their kind must be destroyed,” said a senior counterterrorism official after journalist James Foley was beheaded on high-definition ISIS video, echoing strong-worded statements of high-level U.S. officials including Secretary of State John Kerry.
“ISIS Parks Its Cash in Bitcoin, Experts Say” by Heather Nauert; Fox News; 11/25/2015.
Just days after the hacker group Anonymous pledged to hunt down Islamic State members and launch cyberattacks against their accounts, a separate group of techies claims it has identified a key funding avenue for the terror network – bitcoin accounts.
Ghost Security Group, a collective of computer “hacktivists,” says it has located several bitcoin accounts that ISIS uses to fund operations. One account contained $3 million worth of bitcoin, a GhostSec member told Michael K. Smith II, a co-founder of Kronos Advisory, a national security advisory firm.
GhostSec “wants to make an impact in counterterrorism,” Smith said, adding that the GhostSec member reached out to him because government officials were not paying close attention to the allegations.
Smith said U.S. counterterrorism officials are concerned that ISIS is acquiring gold and using numerous financial tools, including bitcoin, to tap into markets. A Treasury Department spokesperson said the agency couldn’t comment on accounts allegedly linked to terrorists unless the department has taken public action.
But bitcoin – an unregulated form of online currency that circumvents the traditional banking system – is on the government’s radar, since it could serve as an ideal placeholder for terrorist assets and provide a way for terrorists to exchange money. The bitcoin website, bitcoin.org, describes the ease with which anyone can send and receive virtual funds:
“Sending bitcoins across borders is as easy as sending them across the street. There are no banks to make you wait three business days, no extra fees for making an international transfer, and no special limitations on the minimum or maximum amount you can send.”
Bitcoin is considered the first worldwide, decentralized currency; it can be sent from person to person without the third-party involvement of a financial institution. Bitcoin accounts are set up with virtual money, but the digital funds can be cashed in for real money or goods.
A GhostSec member said ISIS’ virtual currency amounts to between 1 percent and 3 percent of its total income – between $4.7 million and $15.6 million. The Treasury Department estimates that ISIS generates between $468 million and $520 million annually. The terror group’s primary sources of revenue are robbery, extortion, oil sales, ransom payments and overseas donations, according to the Treasury Department.
But it doesn’t take a fortune to pull off a terror attack. Even large-scale attacks can be relatively inexpensive. The 9/11 Commission determined that it cost between $400,000 and $500,000 to plan and carry out the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington.
GhostSec hackers insist the alleged ISIS bitcoin account was not linked to the Paris attacks, but they say it shows that terror networks have found a way to transfer assets without easy detection.
Related: Sony’s PlayStation 4 could be terrorists’ communication tool, experts warn
“The bitcoin universe is decentralized by design,” according to Juniper Research, a firm that identifies online market trends. “They’re built by random players around the world. They’re transferred seamlessly via nameless digital wallets.”
Cybersecurity expert Morgan Wright, a senior fellow at the Center for Digital Government, a national research and advisory institute on information technology policies, says terrorists are increasingly utilizing 21st century technology to transfer assets and finance operations
“Terrorists need anonymity,” Wright said. “Countries have gotten very good at tracking terror financing in the years since 9/11. Networks have looked for new ways to do it, and it appears they’ve found it in bitcoin.”
Related: Anonymous declares ‘war’ on ISIS, vows cyberattacks
Government officials have become increasingly concerned about these unregulated financial systems, and the U.S. is starting to apply money laundering regulations to cyber currencies. Firms that issue or exchange bitcoin are required to maintain records and report transactions of more than $10,000.
Individual states, too, are passing laws designed to regulate bitcoin exchanges. New York recently enacted a regulatory framework, and California will start governing the exchanges next year. “The U.S. government is working with a broad coalition of governments around the world to disrupt ISIL’s financing and to sever its access to the international financial system,” a Treasury Department official told Fox News.
But few foreign nations, have specific regulations that govern bitcoin use. The European Commission is expected to release regulations by 2017 that would affect European Union nations. . . .
7. An interesting footnote to the operations of ISIS, as well as L’Affaire Snowden concerns the use by the Islamic State of a Berlin-based messaging service to broadcast their announcements.
With elements of CIA, as well as overlapping Underground Reich elements backing the Sunni Islamists (al-Qaeda, its Syrian offshoot the Nusra Front and their spawn ISIS) we wonder to what extent the Snowden “op” was intended to run interference for the Earth Island Boogie, now underway from Ukraine to Syria to Iraq to China.
Recall that, when (in the summer of 2009) the Angel of Mercy alighted upon the shoulder of Eddie the Friendly Spook, infusing him with the spirit of human benevolence, he was employed by the CIA.
. . . . Even if Apple and others in the United States were compelled to weaken the encryption in their services, American authorities still would have and no judicial authority over Telegram, the Berlin-based messaging service, recently used by Islamic State terrorists to broadcast their communiques. . . .
When you’re forced to ask questions like, “will an al Qaeda ally be a peacemaker in [*insert conflict zone here*]?” you really have to hope world peace just suddenly broke out and all groups amid a global wave of peace, prosperity, and democracy. Because otherwise that means there’s a very unfortunate group of people who are about to be officially ruled al Qaeda:
“Big tent is a good way of describing it”
Can tents get too big? Well, it depends on who you ask. If you listen to Ankara, the tent isn’t big enough for the various Kurdish factions. Qatar, on the other hand, would like to see some space made under the tent for al-Nusra to squeeze in there. And the US wants the Kurds in there but is also willing to include al-Nusra’s close ally, Ahrar al-Sham, but only as long as the group is “willing to abide by a political process”. In other words, the size of the ‘big tent of negotiations’ is, itself, up to negotiations :
So will groups like Ahrar al-Sham actually agree to abide by a political process in hammering out a peace deal? Well, they indeed agree to form the new “big tent” body for negotiating a peace settlement, although one faction of Ahrar al-Sham pulled out after complaining that the agreement failed to “confirm the Muslim identity of our people,” while another wing signed the agreement so it appears that Ahrar al-Sham has a bit of an internal political process it’s going to have to deal with on its own.
But that wasn’t the only angst to emerge from the Islamist parties at the negotiation table and it doesn’t bode well for their willingness to engage in a political process: Islamist delegates objected to using the word “democracy” in the final statement, so the term “democratic mechanism” was used instead:
Well, let’s hope the “democratic mechanism” the negotiating parties agreed upon actually results in some sort of government that isn’t antithetical to democracy.
So with all that happening, it will be interesting to see if “moderate” rebel groups like the Free Syrian Army emerge as a sort of compromise group that nearly everyone will be able to unite behind. After all, the Free Syrian Army is still at least quasi-Islamist given its close relationship with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. But it’s also not an overt al Qaeda affiliate which, sadly, makes groups like the Free Syrian Army rather critical players in any sort of negotiations where preventing a take over by an al Qaeda-like group is going to be avoided. At least they might agree to some sort of democratic quasi-secular solution that isn’t a totally Sunni-Islamist dominated government. Hopefully.
Who knows, maybe some sort of settlement where the non-Islamist groups are given the key Sunni leadership roles in a future secular government is still possible. Or maybe not:
Ok so...
“Karim Jamal Sobeihi, a refugee from southern Syria and a self-described FSA supporter, said the opposition’s main problem was that various groups owed their allegiance to foreign governments that provide the money and, therefore, the rebels cannot agree on unified positions.”
Yep, the allegiance of so many rebel groups to foreign governments with a predilection for sponsoring militant anti-democratic extremists is definitely a peace process problem.
Oh look. A new giant ‘anti-extremism’ military coalition was just announced. Maybe. It’s actually unclear what’s been announced:
Sounds exciting:
That doesn’t sound like we’re on the verge of seeing a ground-force coalition to be used against ISIS. And considering that Saudi Arabia’s government is like a much larger version of ISIS ‘that made it’ and a top supporter of an array of Islamist extremist organizations operating in Syria, the formation of an anti-extremism army, as opposed to an explicitly anti-ISIS army, would be a bit surprising anyway. And according to an anonymous senior US defense official, the announcement of this new Islamist army against Islamist extremism was indeed pretty surprising to US defense officials since they had no indication that such an announcement was going to take place:
“A senior defense official said the U.S. did not know in advance about the formation of an Islamic military alliance to fight terrorism, but officials were working to find out the details. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.”
So the patron saints of Islamic extremism made a surprise announcement about a new military coalition to fight Islamic extremism. Ok then.
In other surprising news, it turns out the world is indeed flat. Or at least each of its six sides are flat.
A very big fight for the heart of ISIS in Iraq is getting underway in Mosul. But as the article below points out, it won’t be a short:
“The long fight by Iraqi security forces to take back Ramadi from the Islamic State, which concluded in December, offers a preview of the battle to come over Mosul. Advancing inch by inch, Iraqi forces, backed by American airstrikes, took more than five months to gain control of the city center of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province.”
So that’s about to happen in Mosul. A very long, brutal fight. As ominous as that sounds, here’s a very big reason why it’s actually a lot more ominous:
“The expert said he foresaw a few months before meaningful repairs would begin. In the meantime, as to when the dam could fail, he said, it “could be tomorrow, could be next week, could be 10 years-time.””
A very informative article on this topic was published by Voltaire Network by Eman Nabih:
https://www.voltairenet.org/article191278.html
It concludes:
US started military strikes against ISIS in Iraq, just to protect US interests in Iraq. US wanted to remove Assad regime in Syria by financing and supporting terrorists like ISIS, instead of fighting them. Moreover, US is still supporting Muslim Brotherhood terrorists organization, as long as they don’t announce Muslim Brotherhood a “terrorist group”.
The US thought that supporting Muslim Brotherhood fascist regime in Egypt, will enable the Muslim brotherhood to have control on all other terrorist groups, and it was ok for the US that terrorists divide the middle east to Islamic emirates, and force their own Sharia laws provisions on the majority and the minority, as long as they will become allies to the US instead of being enemies.
Some other interesting passages include:
Muslim Brotherhood are the parent of all terrorist groups, including ISIS. Hassan Al-Banna, founder of the Muslim Brotherhood sought to restore worldwide Islamic Caliphate. Since his childhood, Albanna was attracted to extremists who were hostile to Western culture and to its system of rights, particularly women’s rights.
Al-Banna spelled out his ideas in a major document titled “The Way of Jihad.”
Under Al-Banna’s stewardship, the Brotherhood developed a network of underground cells, stole weapons, trained fighters, formed secret assassination squads, founded sleeper cells of subversive supporters in the ranks of the army and police, and waited for the order to go public with terrorism, assassinations, and suicide missions.
It was during this time that the Brotherhood found a soulmate in Nazi Germany. The Reich offered great power connections to the movement, but the relationship brokered by the Brotherhood was more than a marriage of convenience. Both movements sought world conquest and domination and both movements committed crimes against humanity.
On 27 January 2016, Al-Bawaba News published names of 30 Muslim brotherhood elements, who joined terrorist camps in Libya and are trained to commit suicidal attacks in Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood joined ISIS and Al-Qaeda terrorist camps in Eastern Libya, during the last 6 month and are trained on using weapons, making explosives and car bombs.
Al-Bawaba News revealed 30 names out of 100 from the Muslim brotherhood organization, who joined terrorist camps in Libya and Syria, like ISIS and Al-Qaeda and especially the terrorist group called “Al-Morabetoun Al-Godod” a terrorist branch of Al-Qaeda organization in Libya, to prepare the MB elements to carry out suicidal attacks in Egypt.
In Bahrain, during the year of 2012, Nasser Al-Fadallah one of the Muslim Brotherhood top leaders, made a speech in front of the US Embassy in Manama, protested against the abusing movie of Prophet Mohamed, when masked men appeared behind Fadallah raised the black flags of ISIS. At this time, no one understood the purpose or the symbol of raising these flags, till ISIS raised the same flag after they appeared in Syria and Iraq.
On 18/6/2014, The Egyptian ministry of Interior arrested Mamdouh Mohamed Hassan, Muslim Brotherhood member worked in the Egyptian ministry of education, who was involved in violence incitement and participated in attacking police forces during Muslim Brotherhood armed and violent protests. Investigators revealed that he had maps and papers that indicated the ties between ISIS and Muslim Brotherhood to commit terror attacks in different parts of Egypt.
SIS managed to recruit many of Muslim Brotherhood youth through social networks. Like Muslim Brotherhood jihad movements in Egypt: Molotov, Ahrar and Islamic Jihad in Egypt. All these Muslim Brotherhood movements in Egypt pledged loyalty to ISIS.
Sabra Alqassemy, former Jihadist in Egypt gave up violence some time ago, and provided earlier information and details which led to the arrest of the first ISIS cell in Sharqia city. He confirmed that ISIS ideology exists in Egypt since Muslim Brotherhood have reached power, and the followers and supporters of ISIS got the blessings from Mohamed Morsi. The armed forces war against terrorism in Sinai, forced terrorists to escape to upper Egypt and hide in the mountains areas.
Nabil Naim, former leader of Jihadists group in Egypt, gave up violence and now he is fighting terrorism, and Dr. Samir Ghattas, director of Strategic studies in the middle east center, confirmed that there is an Egyptian man called Abu Hamza Almasry, he is the link between Muslim Brotherhood youth jihadi movements in Egypt and ISIS leader Abu Bakr Alboghdady. They added that after the 30th of June revolution that toppled the Muslim Brotherhood fascist regime in Egypt, MB found in ISIS the last hope to get back to power, especially after what ISIS is achieving in Syria, Iraq and Libya.
On 13/8/2014, Vetogate newspaper published a report about unannounced visit by one of Muslim Brotherhood top leaders to Iraq with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the leader of ISIS [10]. Muslim Brotherhood offered ISIS all kinds of support including financing, in addition to MB mediation and guarantee that the US is not going to interfere in Iraq’s internal affairs, and won’t launch any military strikes against ISIS in Iraq.
Muslim Brotherhood also offered to facilitate the entry of ISIS elements to the Egyptian territory, through the western and southern borders of Egypt, In return of ISIS helping Muslim Brotherhood to reach power again in Egypt till they control all country’s joints.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the leader of ISIS refused the Muslim Brothers offer including the financial support to ISIS, but showed his agreement to make a deal with Muslim Brotherhood to help them reaching power again in Egypt, provided that Muslim Brotherhood pledge loyalty to him as the grand Caliph of Muslims (the head of Muslims states), and ISIS to become partners to Muslim Brotherhood in ruling Egypt. The report revealed that Muslim Brothers totally refused al-Baghdadi‘s deal.
Despite that ISIS is formed of about fifteen thousand militant and seized many arms and ammunition and is controlling some of the oil fields in Iraq, and they managed to control the central bank in Musul, after they seized about 429 million Dollar; A bunch of mercenaries like ISIS cannot win any battle against countries, people and well equipped and qualified armies in the world, but we cannot underestimate the big threat and danger these terrorists are representing, if they manage to have full control on just one Arab country, like Iraq, Libya or Syria.
Iraq and Libya in particular, are easy targets for ISIS, After US invaded Iraq based on a barefaced lie of WMD, and US deliberately dispersed The Iraqi Army and Police forces, same thing happened in Libya after the invasion too. What makes things worse, is also that Libya and Iraq are formed of different tribes and multiple doctrines, this is another dangerous issue that make people’s unity against terrorism, is almost impossible, because they are not united, on the opposite, they are fighting each other since the invasion and they do have religious and doctrines conflicts.
51 State Department diplomats signed an internal “dissent channel” memo criticizing the Obama administration over its Syria policy. It’s an unusually large number of diplomats to sign a dissent channel memo. It’s also unusual for a dissent memo in that it’s calling for more, not less, military action. For peace:
“Three years later, the sense of urgency at the State Department has not diminished. The memo concludes, “It is time that the United States, guided by our strategic interests and moral convictions, lead a global effort to put an end to this conflict once and for all.””
That’s right, the State Department’s “dissent channel” memo is calling for US military strikes against Assad as part of a global effort to “put an end to this conflict once and for all.” And yet, curiously, what that “end” would look like remains unaddressed:
Huh. The actual peace scenarios, and what role the Islamist radicals and al Qaeda affiliates who comprise the most lethal element of the existing non-ISIS Syrian rebel forces, appear to be yet-to-be-worked-out details. And yet it does appear to be the case that these diplomats don’t just expect the Assad government to negotiate with the moderate rebels in some sort of final peace settlement. The “other factions fight him” are also supposed to be part of the negotiations:
Now, keep in mind that there are “other factions” that aren’t groups like al Nusra and the various other hard core Islamists groups who really do have a very valid place at any peace settlement talks. Any meaningful peace settlement wouldn’t make sense if it doesn’t include the Kurd rebels backed by the Pentagon. But at the same time, any meaningful peace settlement wouldn’t make sense if it does include the CIA’s back hardcore jihadists hell bent on creating a Sunni-supremacist theocracy. The only “peace” that can come from that scenario only happens happens after the jihadists finish slaughtering everyone who doesn’t join their cult and the New Syria becomes a somewhat different version of what ISIS has already created.
So when form Ambassador to Syria Robert S. Ford says, “Many people working on Syria for the State Department have long urged a tougher policy with the Assad government as a means of facilitating arrival at a negotiated political deal to set up a new Syrian government,” it would probably be a good idea for those many frustrated State Department officials to make it completely clear that the the envisioned peace settlement that they’re advocating the US bomb Assad into agreeing to doesn’t include the many militant extremist rebel groups that are best positioned to be the military power in a post-Assad Syria and have nothing but slaughter of the non-Islamists in mind and the full backing of the Sunni regional powers:
“Mr Ford defends the moderates, saying that their alliance with Nusra is only tactical and the result of their weakness and disunity. But in a further interview with Middle East Monitor, Mr Ford makes an important point, warning that “with this cooperation [between moderates and Nusra], they have made it impossible to get a negotiated political deal, because the people in the regime who do not like Assad, and there are lots who don’t like Assad, look at the opposition and say we cannot negotiate with an opposition that supports Nusra”.”
Well, that was ambassador Ford’s views on the situation last year. And it seems like the kind of view that the rest of the State Department’s officials dealing with Syria should be familiar with by now. And so it would appear that a large chunk of the State Department’s Syria policy specialists are calling for the US to bomb the Assad government into accepting a peace settlement which was seen as politically impossible last year due to the fact that groups like al Nusra will become legitimized political forces and terrorize the populace.
Wow. That’s pretty dark. But if there’s one positive thing the leaking of this memo could bring about it’s that the absurdity of this “bombs for ‘peace’ ” declaration might finally start a conversation about what sort of peace settlement could happen if no Islamist radicals are part of the new government. Yes, such a settlement would be staunchly opposed by countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but so what? It’s a big world.
So, assuming the forced conversions and ethnic cleansing that would inevitably be part of an Islamist government aren’t part of any “peace” settlement, isn’t there some sort of guarantees the global community could make to the non-Islamist factions that would clearly be agreeable to all parties? Pledges of massive sustainable aid and maybe peacekeeping forces to prevent reprisal killings? Who knows, maybe such an agreement isn’t possible which would be an incredible tragedy. But it’s probably an even greater tragedy if we never even get to the point of finding out whether or not peace is possible because various parties insist on including violent theocrats in the peace process.
Of course, dropping bombs to force peace negotiations with those violent theocrats would be even pretty tragic too.
Here’s a big reason why Turkey’s efforts to prevent another ISIS attack are probably going to have limited results: Turkey’s ongoing aid and shelter to ISIS’s militant ideological brethren:
“Erdogan’s governing Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, party aligns itself with the international Muslim Brotherhood movement, and Erdogan personally has sought to project himself as a defender of oppressed Islamists, from Cairo to the Palestinian territories. But in reality, the lines between ardent nationalism and violent extremism are never neatly drawn, said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.”
Yeah, branding your government as the global defender of oppressed Islamists groups like Hamas and Gamaa Islamiya is probably going to complicate your government’s anti-terror strategy. You have to wonder how many ISIS members are joining these protected groups as ISIS continues to crumble. It seems like an obvious escape route.
Of course, as the Erdogan government has also reminded us, it could be worse! Because it is.
During one of Donald Trump’s recent attempts to deflect speculation that he may have given assistance by Kremlin hackers, Trump raised an interesting question regarding the US policy regarding ISIS that shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand despite the fact that it came from Donald Trump’s mouth: “When you think about it, wouldn’t it be nice if we got along with Russia?...Wouldn’t it be nice if we got together with Russia and knocked the hell out of ISIS?”. That was Trump’s question. It’s not an unreasonable question. And while it may have been intended as sort of a rhetorical question, here’s the latest consequence of a joint US-Russian military campaign in Syria:
“The supposed breakup comes less than two weeks after Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States and Russia had agreed to cooperate in Syria against al Nusra in an effort to “restore the cessation of hostilities, significantly reduce the violence and help create the space for a genuine and credible political transition” in the war-ravaged country.”
That’s right, less than two weeks after the US and Russia agreed to a joint military campaign against al Nusra, the group laughably declared itself no longer a branch of al Qaeda...with al Qaeda’s leadership’s blessing. Wow, that’s really sneaky!
So what might happen when the US and Russian form an alliance against ISIS too? We’ll see, since the Obama administration publicly floated last month and Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the US and Russia were working on such an alliance over two weeks ago.
Donald Trump must have missed those updates. Hopefully he’ll be more up to date now that he’s getting national security briefings as the GOP candidate. Well, ok, hopefully he doesn’t actually get those national security briefings. Or if he does get them at least the information is limited. There’s got to be at least some national security risk-related information he can be safely given. At least a few tidbits here and there.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt all suddenly severed diplomatic ties with Qatar. Why? Well, the main reason appears to be outrage over comments by Qatar’s ruler critical of growing anti-Iranian sentiments in the region.
Plus Qatar’s long-standing role as the Gulf monarchy that still openly backs and finances hardline Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood:
“It’s mostly, but not all, about Iran. The spark for this flare-up was a report by the state-run Qatar News Agency that carried comments by Qatar ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani criticizing mounting anti-Iran sentiment. Qatari officials quickly deleted the comments, blamed them on hackers and appealed for calm. Criticism by Saudi and U.A.E. media outlets escalated after Sheikh Tamim phoned Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the weekend in apparent defiance of Saudi criticism.”
So comments by Qatar’s ruler that weren’t in keeping with the Saudi plans for ramping up for war with Iran. And that triggered a severing of diplomatic relations. But this isn’t just about Qatar deviating from the Sunni-Shia civil war. It’s also apparently about Qatar’s ongoing disagreement over whether or not to back the various Sunni radical militant groups operating in the region like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood:
So Qatar is getting isolated by its fellow Sunni Gulf monarchies (plus Egypt) over Qatar’s apparent support of Iran but also over Qatar’s open support of Sunni-supremacist extremist groups like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Its’ a rather strange situation in that sense.
Especially given all the secret support of these same Sunni-extremists by the Saudis and gulf monarchies. Secret support that isn’t actually a secret but governments don’t want to mention anyway:
“The inquiry into revenue streams for extremist groups operating in the UK was commissioned by the former prime minister and is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which has repeatedly been highlighted by European leaders as a funding source for Islamist jihadis.”
Yes, the UK has a report thought to focus on Saudi financing of Islamist radicals. But its contents might be so ‘sensitive’ that it might not be publicly released:
“However, 18 months later, the Home Office confirmed the report had not yet been completed and said it would not necessarily be published, calling the contents “very sensitive””
So no word yet on whether or not Saudi Arabia is planning on severing diplomatic relations with itself over its funding of far-right reactionary Islamist ideologies.
But one thing is very clear at this point: Saudi Arabia’s new glowing anti-terrorism orb had better watch out.
The call is coming from inside the House, orb! Get out of there!
With the UK’s June 8th early elections wrapping up — and exit polls suggesting a surprising loss of the Conservative parliamentary majority — following repeated far-right Islamist terror attacks, it’s worth noting that the next UK government should probably look into this:
“Yet the press has largely ignored the extent to which Choudary’s uncanny freedom to operate in Britain, and to send British Muslims to fight in foreign theatres, was linked to his opaque relationship to Britain’s security services.”
And what was that relationship with Britain’s security services? It appeared to be “if you act as an informant, but also recruit and train jihadists for fights in foreign lands, you’ll be fine”. Or something like that:
So let’s hope the next UK government takes a look into this history. Will it? Well, that probably depends on whether or not who ends up being the next prime minister. And whether or not they have close ties to HSBC and/or business in Saudi Arabia:
“Nicholas Wilson is an anti-corruption campaigner. And he is also standing as an independent parliamentary candidate in Hastings and Rye, against Rudd. At a hustings on 3 June, Wilson was discussing Theresa May’s links to Saudi Arabia and HSBC bank, but also how the Saudi kingdom itself is linked to international terrorism – especially in relation to the Manchester bombing.”
And what happened just moments after Wilson started discussing the HSBC/Saudi arms sales/terror connection to Theresa May and her husband Philip? Britain’s Home Secretary (Theresa May’s old job) and shut Wilson’s speech down. On video:
So that gives us a sense of the current UK government’s interest in addressing the jihadist recruiting/training networks apparently operating under the protection of MI5 as part of a larger foreign policy of utilizing Islamic radicals for geopolitical ends regardless of the inevitable blowback to the UK and the incredible damage fostering such groups and protecting/arming fundamentalist regimes does to the reform movements of the Muslim world.
It’s the kind of situation that makes everyday a good day for an early election. So yay for today.
The Financial Times had a good piece on some of the regional tensions behind the sudden severance of diplomatic ties between Qatar and its Sunni neighbors. And the article notes one of the dynamics that should be interesting to watch as this plays out: Qatar and Turkey have been growing increasingly close, with Ankara opening up a military base in Qatar in recent years. And many of the same issues that allegedly sparked this fight (Qatar’s ongoing support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other far-right Islamists militants) are also being pursued by Turkey (and also the Saudis and UAE, but they assert that support has gone away in recent years). So is a big Saudi/UAE/Egypt fight with Turkey on the horizon too? We’ll see, but based on the logic behind the spat with Qatar it seems like a future fight with Turkey only makes sense (which is not to say that any of this actually makes sense):
“Regionally, Doha has forged closer ties with Ankara, which has adopted a similar approach to backing Islamist groups in Syria. Turkey has opened a military base in Qatar, which has hosted the US’s regional military headquarters at al-Udeid air base for years.”
Yep, Turkey jopened its first military base in Qatar just last year and now it’s planning on sending 3,000 troops to that base in the wake of this dispute. And given their mutual deep ties to the Muslim Brotherhood it’s note a surprising particularly surprising relationship:
So that potential fault line in what appeared to be a nearly unanimous Sunni front against Iran and the Shias should be something to watch. What’s next? That remains to be seen, although whatever is next will probably involve more claims of Russian hacking. More Russian hacking claims on top of the current ones:
“The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.”
And what did that FBI team discover when investigating this incident that created a major diplomatic and military headache for the US? Russian hackers dunnit!
So just remember: this emerging intra-Sunni conflict isn’t a consequence of the myriad of conflicts and contradictions overlaying the interests and struggles of a region dominated by theocratic monarchs at perpetual war with the religious radicals of their own creation. ‘Russian hackers’ did it.
President Trump laid out his vision for the US’s role in Afghanistan going forward last night during an address to the nation: In contrast to his calls during the campaign to pull out of Afghanistan entirely he’s now convinced to sense thousands of more ground troops. But, Trump emphasized, ‘We’re not nation-building. We’re killing terrorists’. So it’s unclear what the actual new strategy is, but what is clear is that the US is going to have a major military footprint in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, which isn’t particularly surprising but it does mean that that the underlying urgency to finding some sort of grounds for a peaceful settlement to the conflict is still there too.
So with that in mind, it’s worth noting that if there’s one thing that Trump could possibly do that would facilitate a peaceful resolution it’s going after the flows that keep the Taliban supplied with weapons, resources, and potentially foreign fighters. That’s part of what made Trump’s eyebrow-raising comments where he call out Pakistan’s government for providing assistance to Taliban networks and then called on Pakistan’s mortal enemy India to “help us more” in Afghanistan so intriguing. One the surface the comments seemed like Trumpian bluster that was simply going to to piss off the Pakistani government. But if it also signals some sort of new backroom diplomatic drive to pressure Pakistan, who knows, maybe some good will come from it. But if cutting off the weapons and money flows to the Taliban is going to be part of Trump’s strategy, someone should let him know that his wealthy buddies in Saudi Arabia need some Trumpian scolding over their support for the Taliban too:
“Despite those covert efforts, the Saudi kingdom, publicly and officially, has been largely absent in Afghanistan. While paying lip service to the American mission, Saudi Arabia has not built a significant project in its own name in Afghanistan in 15 years.”
As we can see, on the surface it would appear that the Saudis have a relative small focus on the affairs of Afghanistan, but that obscures the private Saudi role financing Taliban and other organizations dedicated to spreading an extremist form of Sunni Islam:
But at the same time wealthy Saudis are supporting the Taliban and militant Islamist rule it’s the Saudi government that’s become the secret peace negotiator. Starting back in 2006:
“Even in a very far village in Afghanistan, Saudi means something,” said Mr. Anas, who today runs Al Magharibia, a satellite television channel based in London.
Yep, if anyone can negotiate a peace treaty between the Taliban and the rest of Afghan society it would appear to be the Saudi government. And yet it’s unclear if that’s true since these secret negotiations haven’t exactly been successful over the the last decade as the Saudi support of the Taliban continued. But it’s even more unclear who else on the planet is going to have more credibility is a peace negotiator in the eyes of the Taliban so it seems like the US might be heavily reliant on Saudi cooperation if there’s any hope of seeing the US leave Afghanistan without watching the rest of the country almost immediately fall to the Taliban.
And yet a Taliban-style theocracy is clearly what the Saudi government would like to see for the country which makes convincing them otherwise part of any sort of long-term Afghan peace process. What is Trump to do? We’ll see but the Saudis are clearly going to need to see The Art of the Deal in action. Hopefully there won’t be any more sword dances required of Trump because it’s unclear that helps. Another round of communing with the glowing anti-terrorism orb should be fine.