Deutsche Bank has avoided the worst of the banking carnage by pulling off a series of trades that have lightened its load of soured investments. While it still could need to write down assets or raise capital, Germany’s largest bank by market value is positioning itself to be an acquirer in the second half.
Behind the strategy are its co-heads of investment banking, Anshu Jain and Michael Cohrs.
In the past three months, Deutsche has found buyers for corporate loans, reducing the bank’s portfolio to at least €25bn ($39.25bn) from €33bn in March.
They will get a report card when Deutsche posts results Thursday.
A year into the credit crunch, new worries are looming over banks, such as increased consumer losses in the US and Europe, and deteriorating corporate loans.
Banks in Europe are expected to report billions of dollars in write-downs for investments tied to mortgages and other assets when they post midyear results in coming weeks.
Bank stocks have been battered. Deutsche’s shares in Germany this year have fallen 35%, roughly on par with the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Banks index, which is down 31%.
Still, Deutsche’s stock has outperformed rivals such as Lehman Brothers and Royal Bank of Scotland, which have seen drops of about 75% and 45%, respectively.
Jain and Cohrs’s strategy comes at a cost.
Deutsche took a loss on selling real estate in New York, though it got some of the properties off its books.
In Las Vegas, the bank has had to take responsibility for the Cosmopolitan Resort Casino, an unfinished $3.9bn project it originally financed for US developer Ian Bruce Eichner.
Rather than sell the property in a weak market and have to finance the buyer, Deutsche has decided to complete construction on its own and seek assistance from outside investors.
Lehman analyst Jon Peace and others expect Deutsche to post a write-down in the range of €2bn to cover leveraged and commercial-property loans in the second quarter.
Some analysts also say that Deutsche may have to write down some of the €9bn in insurance it used to hedge mortgage-securities risk.
“Deutsche Bank has been better at weathering the storm,” said Guy de Blonay, a fund manager at New Star Asset Management in London. Even so, de Blonay hasn’t purchased Deutsche Bank shares because he remains concerned about more write-downs.
Some analysts and investors worry that the bank hasn’t marked down its commercial real-estate and corporate loans as steeply as competitors. But Deutsche has said the values it puts on such debt reflect the quality of the loans.
Last month, David Williams, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller, said he expects that Deutsche might have to raise €3bn to remain well-capitalised.
Deutsche, though, is counting on client money from retail and private-bank deposits to enable it to stave off fund raising that other banks have needed to weather their losses, a person familiar with the situation said.
Deutsche recently said it would be profitable in the second quarter, and it wouldn’t need to raise money.
It recorded a €2.7bn write-down for its loans tied to commercial property and corporate buyouts and a net loss of €141m in the first quarter.
On Thursday, Switzerland’s Credit Suisse defied analysts’ expectations by posting a 1.2bn Swiss franc ($1.16bn) profit after minimal write-downs, which bodes well for Deutsche’s results.
The Swiss bank also was able to sell 6.5bn francs of corporate loans in the second quarter, reducing its portfolio to 14.3bn francs.
Jain and Cohrs both arrived in 1995 as part of Deutsche’s big hiring push to expand investment banking.
The 45-year-old Jain joined from Merrill Lynch, and Cohrs, 51, from the former SG Warburg, now part of UBS.
As co-heads of the investment bank, Jain oversees sales and trading of stocks, bonds and other products, while Cohrs handles the mergers and corporate-lending businesses.
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