COMMENT: Much consternation has been expressed by Germans frustrated with having to bail out weaker EMU economies. What has received less attention is the fact that Euro was predictably weak. That weakness has kept the price of German exports low, boosting their economy to a level unmatched since the early 1990’s.
This fact alone, makes it unlikely that Germany will be leaving the currency union anytime soon.
EXCERPT: . . . . The reason: German industry in general and its automotive business in particular benefits massively from being a member of the E.U. and using the euro to price its exports. If the euro collapsed and Germany had to revert to its old currency, the mark, its auto industry would take a price hit of perhaps 25 percent. If Germany was forced to revert to the mark, car manufacturers would quickly move production out of high-wage Germany, causing huge unemployment. To a degree this is happening already, but it would become a disruptive and politically unacceptable stampede if the mark was called off the bench and the euro dumped.
“Whether Germany is willing to pay more for more bailouts ultimately depends on whether German politicians can sell this to the German people,” said professor David Bailey of the Coventry University Business School.
“There is a good argument (for Germans) for supporting peripheral Eurozone countries because Germany — via the euro — has had a huge boost to its competitiveness,” Bailey said.
Even before the euro, when Germany’s currency was the mark, the country racked up huge trade surpluses. After it joined the euro on Jan. 1, 1999, it was presented with an effective devaluation, although this has fluctuated over the years as it strengthened and weakened against the dollar.
“With the euro it has run huge trade surpluses but its currency was fixed via its euro zone partners, giving it at least, say, a 20 to 25 percent competitiveness boost. No wonder German manufacturing — and its car making industry — is doing well and why Germany would want to stay part of the euro zone,” Bailey said.
While many major global economies are struggling to move out of recession, Germany has been booming. Germany’s gross domestic product in the third quarter rose a net 0.7 percent and by 3.9 percent compared with the same period of 2009.
Economists called this an export-led rebound, and said things would get even better for Germany because the nervousness surrounding the euro was weakening the currency and boosting its sales outside Europe. . . .
COMMENT: Indeed, the European Monetary Union is the realization of a plan for German world domination developed in the mid 19th century by Friedrich List. Its implementation followed upon the German economic conquest of Europe during World War II; its realization concisely forecast by journalist Dorothy Thompson in 1940.
Dorothy Thompson’s analysis of Germany’s plans for world dominance entails implementation by the creation of a centralized European economic union. Ms. Thompson was writing in The New York Herald Tribune on May 31, 1940!
“The Germans have a clear plan of what they intend to do in case of victory. I believe that I know the essential details of that plan. I have heard it from a sufficient number of important Germans to credit its authenticity . . . Germany’s plan is to make a customs union of Europe, with complete financial and economic control centered in Berlin. This will create at once the largest free trade area and the largest planned economy in the world. In Western Europe alone . . . there will be an economic unity of 400 million persons . . . To these will be added the resources of the British, French, Dutch and Belgian empires. These will be pooled in the name of Europa Germanica . . .”
“The Germans count upon political power following economic power, and not vice versa. Territorial changes do not concern them, because there will be no ‘France’ or ‘England,’ except as language groups. Little immediate concern is felt regarding political organizations . . . . No nation will have the control of its own financial or economic system or of its customs. The Nazification of all countries will be accomplished by economic pressure. In all countries, contacts have been established long ago with sympathetic businessmen and industrialists . . . . As far as the United States is concerned, the planners of the World Germanica laugh off the idea of any armed invasion. They say that it will be completely unnecessary to take military action against the United States to force it to play ball with this system. . . . Here, as in every other country, they have established relations with numerous industries and commercial organizations, to whom they will offer advantages in co-operation with Germany. . . .”
Germany Plots with the Kremlin by T.H. Tetens; Henry Schuman [HC]; 1953; p. 92.
COMMENT: Writing in the 19th century, Friedrich List posited the idea of German-dominated central European economic union as a vehicle for establishing German economic and imperial superiority to Britain, Germany’s top geopolitical rival. List’s formulations are the basis for the German-dominated European Monetary Union. List understood that economic control led automatically to political control. That awareness is central to an understanding of the operations of the Bormann Capital Network.
“Many of the major elements of economic imperialism were enunciated in the 1840’s by the ubiquitous Friedrich List. List argued that overseas colonies were needed to supplement his favorite scheme for economic development: a central European economic union. He foresaw an economic organization with an industrialized Germany as its center and a periphery of other central and eastern European states that would supply food and raw materials for German industry and would purchase German industrial products. A semiautarkic structure would thus be created; it would have the advantage of permitting control, or even exclusion, of British competition, thus allowing central Europe to industrialize successfully in an orderly, planned manner.”
(The Ideological Origins of Nazi Imperialism; by Woodruff D. Smith; Copyright 1986 [SC]; Oxford University Press; ISBN 0–19-504741–9 (PBK); p. 30.)
sorry to disagree. Yes cunning Germany kept her rates and wages low to increase her exports; but ensured all other EU rates were at highest level, hence each falling into near bankruptcy seeking rescue from unfairly prosperous Germany. I forecast in 2002, repeated in my blue book Germany’s Four Reichs Page 56 that germany planned breakup of Euro leaving her in complete mastery. Then invite all into DMark under total German domination in Superstate
Exactly. You’ve got it all covered. The European nations have fallen for this trick, willingly or unwillingly, unfortunately for them, and now they can’t get out of it. It is a trap. The union of all western European states was planned long in advance, as expressed here by Friedrich List. The bail out of weaker member states economies is certainly a burden on the German people but it is, after all, an opportunity for a take over: the one who pays calls the shots, like always. I love Europe and I am sorry that it has arrived to this mess.
While it’s never a good idea to inhale car exhaust, if you’ve purchase a new diesel-powered Volkswagen car in the last six years you really don’t want to start huffing that tailpipe:
“It totally goes against all of the marketing they have had of a clean diesel...That’s one of the biggest selling points for Volkswagen.”
It turns out you don’t have to actually inhale diesel exhaust to give yourself a major headache. Getting caught systematically hiding elevated levels of exhaust pollution for years will also do the trick:
“The EPA insisted that the violations do not pose any safety hazard and said the cars remain legal to drive and sell while Volkswagen comes up with a plan to recall and repair them. However, it said the cars posed a threat to public health.”
That’s quite a nuanced warning from the EPA. At least the affected cars aren’t extra likely to run you over, but you probably don’t want to be caught behind one while biking to work.
And note the other warning from the EPA, the directed at the auto industry itself: This may not be limited to Volkswagen....or US regulators:
It’s also worth pointing out that VW overtook Toyota as the largest auto maker a few months ago, but one area where VW has been struggling in recent years, despite the devaluation of the euro, is the US automarket and VW’s performance has been so disappointing in the US that the company’s CEO, Martin Winterkorn, almost lost his job back in April. Yes, VW wasn’t doing that great in the US anyways, but it also may have just imploded its US brand’s reputation.
So it’s looking like it’s going to be damage-control mode for VW for the foreseeable future as the company tries to explain why this was all just an innocent mistake. Good luck!
Here’s an indication of how screwed Volkswagen might be following its diesel clean diesel scam scandal: The current mega-fine being bandied about is up to $18 billion, and that’s based on a max $37,500 fine for each of the 482,000 recalled cars. But as VW warns, the number of cars using the same type of engine globally, including the ‘special’ software, is closer to 11 million and most of the them are probably in Europe:
“It is not clear, though, how fully Volkswagen might be able to correct the problem on the 11 million vehicles. The company could presumably alter the engines, so that the cars on the road begin actually meeting the required emissions standards. But doing so would probably degrade the vehicles’ fuel economy and performance, and might cause the engines to wear out sooner”
BMW’s stock just took a plunge following reports that the diesel version of its X3 SUV exceeded the European limit for air pollution during a road test. It was 11 times the limit:
“Emissions measured in road tests of 15 new diesel cars were an average of about seven times higher than European limits, according to a study published last October by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the same group whose tipoff led U.S. regulators to investigate a gap between VW diesels’ emissions in tests and on the road.”
Here’s a reminder that as the VW scandal potentially grows to include other manufacturers, the scandal just might start hitting government regulators too. At least, it should:
You have to love the “we just want to recharge our batteries for the sake of repeatability” argument:
“But a fully-charged battery also prevents a car’s alternator from kicking in and releasing carbon emissions during tests, as would happen in real world driving situations.”
According to a German Green Party MP, the German government told the MPs about this issue back in July. But that wasn’t all it did: “The government worked with the auto industry, not to see that emissions levels were reduced, but so that the measuring system was set up to allow the cars meet the necessary standards on paper”
Keep in mind that when you read:
that software hasn’t just been used in the USA:
So over 400,000 cars are running that software in the US, and 2.8 million in Germany apparently, but VW asserts that, while 11 million vehicles worldwide were fitted with the software, it’s not turned on in the bulk of them:
And this, or course, raises the question of whether having the “defeat device” software turned off just leaves the cars in high-emmission mode or low-emmission mode permanently. It’s not really clear:
So for the bulk of the 11 million cars that have the “defeat device” software installed but apparently not “turned on”, wouldn’t the performance of those models have been far worse than the same models in US or European if turning “off” the software somehow neutralized? Don’t forget that the “defeat device” allowed those cars to meet their advertised fuel efficiency and performance, so if that software was “turned off” for the bulk of those 11 million cars, should they have been drastically underperforming their advertised performance? And wouldn’t consumers have discovered this by now that was the case?
According to a German Green Party MP, the German government told the MPs about this issue back in July. But that wasn’t all it did: “The government worked with the auto industry, not to see that emissions levels were reduced, but so that the measuring system was set up to allow the cars meet the necessary standards on paper”
Keep in mind that when you read:
that software hasn’t just been used in the USA:
So over 400,000 cars are running that software in the US, and 2.8 million in Germany apparently, but VW asserts that, while 11 million vehicles worldwide were fitted with the software, it’s not turned on in the bulk of them:
And this, or course, raises the question of whether having the “defeat device” software turned off just leaves the cars in high-emmission mode or low-emmission mode permanently. It’s not really clear:
So for the bulk of the 11 million cars that have the “defeat device” software installed but apparently not “turned on”, wouldn’t the performance of those models have been far worse than the same models in US or European if turning “off” the software somehow neutralized the emmissions trickery? Don’t forget that the “defeat device” allowed those cars to meet their advertised fuel efficiency and performance, so if that software was “turned off” for the bulk of those 11 million cars, should they have been drastically underperforming their advertised performance? And wouldn’t consumers have discovered this by now that was the case?
If you have to be thrown under a bus, a nice adorable VW Bus is clearly your bus-to-run-over-you of choice, especially if its filled with hippies since they’ll probably have various
painkillingpain distracting substances on board.But if you’re a VW executive at risk of getting thrown under the metaphorical VW Bus, there’s a much better option available: throw your technicians and engineers under the VW Bus first, and hope that stops its momentum before it hits you:
It was all just “a small group” of engineers and technicians (who were overseen by executives at the company headquarters). Shame on those engineers and technicians...and only those engineers and technicians:
Yes, it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the VW Bus...although it should smooth out before it hits the important bumps.
As the investigations in the Volkswagen emission scam scandal proceeds, one of the key questions that all impacted parties are going to be interested is it the classic “what did they know, and when did they know it?” And based the follow, we can at least sort of answer those questions: The board of executives knew something was wrong in 2011 because it received warnings warnings from its own technicians. And it may was also warned by auto parts supplier Bosch that the Bosch software could be used illegally as early as 2007, two years before the illegal software was installed in VW vehicles:
“In most of the world, including the United States, diesel engines in passenger cars are a niche product. But their fuel economy and low carbon emissions have made them popular in Europe, where they now account for half of vehicles sold.”
Volkswagen just released the number of cars in the UK running with the “defeat device” software installed: 1.2 million:
That’s a lot of cars! And pollution. So much that you have to wonder how this could impact the relations between Germany and UK with the UK’s referendum on staying in the EU yet to come...especially since David Cameron reportedly did a U‑turn on new EU emission limits back in 2013 that he had previously supported as a personal favor to Angela Merkel:
“Government spokesperson refused to deny the claims by Mr Baker, but said the EU-wide negotiations over new C02 targets are “an entirely different issue to manufactures illegally falsifying emissions tests.” However fuel efficiency and emissions standards are increasingly being linked amid fierce criticism of the EU’s approach to automotive testing.”
Yes indeed, the charges of Mr. Baker are “an entirely different issue to manufactures illegally falsifying emissions tests,” although highly thematically related:
“Super credits are a clause in EU rules for rewarding a large manufacturer with permission to make high-emitting gas guzzlers if it also manufactures a certain number of electric cars or low emissions vehicles. Campaigners say the system has allowed large car makers to continue to produce high CO2 emitting vehicle in exchange for producing a small number of lower emissions vehicles.”
And as researchers concluded in 2013, these “super credits” weren’t even required for European auto manufacturers to meet their emissions targets. It was just a waste.
So we’ll see if David Cameron’s 2012 decision to demur to Merkel’s request for a favor to let German manufacturers sell more high-polluting vehicles ends up becoming part of the growing emissions scandal, but if so, it could have end engulfing more EU leaders that just David Cameron. That decision to delay those standards and allow for unnecessary “super credit” was an EU decision and involved a lot more leaders than just David Cameron. And was also reported on in 2013:
That was the EU parliamentary roadblock in June of 2013 over the new standards and lack of “super credits”. But a compromise was eventually reach in November and, surprise, surprise, the backers of “super credits” were presumably super happy:
And, yes, following that compromise agreement, the “super credits” bill became law a few months later.
So that all happened. Previously. And no one really cared. But now that the VW mega scandal has also happened maybe we’ll see some serious public attention on the fact the EU’s auto emissions laws were basically written by the German auto industry. It’s something the industry probably doesn’t want to publicly take credit for but that may not be an option at this point given the super job it’s done so far.
VW’s US operations chief Michael Horn appears to have a pretty good idea of who is to blame for the emissions scandal: Two software engineers. And only two software engineers:
“This was a couple of software engineers who put this in for whatever reason. Some people have made the wrong decisions in order to get away with something that will have to be found out....I agree it’s very hard to believe. Personally I struggle as well.”
So according to the guy claims to have had “no understanding” of what defeat devices were and only learned of them at a meeting in September that Volkswagen held with US and California air regulators, he’s pretty confident it was just a couple of software engineers. It’ll be interesting to see if the same two engineers get blamed for the second “defeat device” that regulators have just stumbled across, or if that will be blamed on a different pair of engineers. And only those engineers:
Hidden software that should be allowed, but must be disclosed and yet wasn’t. That is a bit suspicious all things considered:
“But Horn testified Thursday before a House energy and commerce subcommittee that the company had neglected to disclose the software and seek approval from regulators.”
This pesky software engineers. Clearly they were solely responsible for this (and not the guy running the US operations that apparently didn’t know what a “defeat device” was until last month).
Here’s another “uh oh” report for VW’s management: It turns out using “defeat device” software to cheat emissions tests in a broad range of vehicles over a number of years (with changing technology) in different countries with different emissions guidelines might require the development of multiple versions of the “defeat device” software for all of those different circumstance and updating it when new engine technology is rolled out. And doing all that since 2008 wouldn’t be very easy to do without management’s approval:
“Horn added VW was withdrawing its application for regulatory certification of 2016 diesel models because it contained another software feature that had not been disclosed as required by the authorities.”
Wow, those rogue VW coders that management totally knew nothing about sure were busy! *wink*
I kind of assumed VW is an asset/extension of the German Government and Underground Reich. Why did they get caught? Aren’t we used to these folks getting away with bloody murder?
A file with documents containing a Lower Saxony official’s correspondences in connection with the VW emissions scandal disappeared recently and authorities are now looking into the matter. We’re being assured that the file contained no secret VW and it’s being depicted as mostly just frustrating but not serious. But considering that Lower Saxony holds about 20% of VW’s voting stock, with special voting rights, and considering that the file is also said to contain the official’s internal comments on legal questions, it seems like this could be described as more than just frustrating:
Well, we’ll see if the documents ever turn up although it seems like they may have made a trip to the paper shredder by now.
In tangentially related news, if you’ve recently stolen a bunch of confidential documents about an emissions fraud scandal, ran them through a paper shredder, but then accidentally dumped all those shreds on the floor and need to vacuum them up, your new energy-efficient vacuum cleaner might have a bit of a ‘VW’ problem:
“Bosch supplied the engine control systems that VW used to install “defeat devices”, which embroiled the car maker in the diesels emissions-rigging scandal.”
This should be interesting: VW just warned that its emissions scandal, which had been limited to vehicles using the EA 189 engine, might include its newer EA 288 engine too:
So that was the earlier report. But now we’re hearing that VW has completed its investigations and found no problems with the EA 288:
Well, that’s good news. For pretty much everyone. But it does raise an interesting question: since the EA 288 engines were supposed to replace the EA 189 engines but don’t have the malicious software installed, why haven’t there been earlier reports of significant performance difference between the EA 189 and EA 288 vehicles? Was the EA 288 such a big improvement over the EA 189 that it really was the low-pollution/high mileage engine VW claimed it was selling? If not, what’s the explanation?
The VW emissions scandal just had a new twist. The EPA announced that it has discovered emissions-cheating software on more diesel cars. This time it includes vehicles from VW, Audi, and Porche with 3.0 liter engines. The report describes in detail the mechanisms of how the software does its cheating. And here’s the twist: VW denies it:
Note the parsing in VW’s denials: “Volkswagen AG wishes to emphasize that no software has been installed in the 3‑liter V6 diesel power units to alter emissions characteristics in a forbidden manner.”
It raises the question: Will VW attempt to argue that these “defeat devices” do exist, but were actually legal? If so, keep in mind that it won’t be an argument without numerous precedents.
Ouch. VW just issued a new “oopsie” report about another 800,000 cars that may have emissions “inconsistencies” for CO2. And this time it includes a non-diesel engine too:
Keep in mind that, should the VW scandal expand beyond diesel engine emissions cheating and start including CO2 emission “inconsistencies” involving gas engine, this could expand the scandal to include not just VW’s entire passenger vehicle fleet but pretty much the entire global auto industry since emissions cheating of one degree or another is so ubiquitous. So in terms of “framing” this scandal, expanding it beyond diesel emissions to include the inaccuracies in CO2 emissions from all cars might actually be a stroke of PR genius because it won’t just be VW everyone is talking about. And helpful too, so let’s hope VW starts pointing fingers elsewhere and goes into “there’s a pox on your house too!”-mode. That could be fun.
But let’s also hope that VW is less successful in the other strategy that Audi appears to be mulling over: retroactively legalizing these “defeat devices”:
“Seeking belated authorization of the software could be one option to try to solve the matter, the spokesman said.”
Just legalized the “defeat devices”! Well, that’s one option. It’s not the best option, but it’s apparently an option.
VW issued an update on the mystery of the new “defeat devices” discovered in its 3.0 liter diesel engine that VW previously claimed were not illegal. And it turns out VW may have been partially correct. VW now admits that there were indeed “defeat device” installed that it didn’t tell US regulator about them, but the devices aren’t actually illegal. In Europe:
Well, that will indeed be helpful if the “defeat device” is reprogrammed so US regulators can “see it, understand it and approve it and feel comfortable with the way it’s performing”:
And note that while the claims that “defeat devices” weren’t actually illegal in Europe aren’t as absurd as they sound. Yes, the idea that “defeat devices” would be legal is pretty damn absurd. But the statement that they might be legal
unfortunately isn’t so absurd:
“What we have developed is a phony system of testing where the member states are in competition with each other for who can make it the most easy for the car manufacturers to pass the test”
Yes, one of the longest-running automotive races of our times was the secret regulatory Great Race to the bottom. It’s a gas.
When scandal hits an organization, sometimes the subsequent investigation is exactly what is needed to dig that organization out of the hole they’ve created for themselves. Of course, if that digging continues to reveal a deeper scandal than previously recognized, sometimes the hole gets deeper too:
Yep, VW started off trying to cheat tests its cars couldn’t pass, but then proceeded to cheat tests its cars could pass:
It does indeed sound like there was “a mind-set in some areas of the company that tolerated breaches of the rules.” Some areas likely more than others.
The EPA just filed a lawsuit against VW over the diesel emission scandal. Wish them luck. Especially if a bill moving its way through Congress dubbed the “VW Bailout Bill” becomes law. Because if it does become law, the EPA just might be the only entity that’s actually able to bring a meaningful lawsuit over the scandal. And not just in this case over the VW emissions. The “VW Bailout Bill” would effectively bailout any entity potentially facing a class-action lawsuit:
“This is devastating because it sets up all class-actions to fail”
Yep, the GOP’s response to VW’s systematic scamming of US consumers is to make it effectively impossible for not just VW’s consumers but ALL American consumers to wage a class-action lawsuit against any corporation at all.
Maybe those lucky VW owners can take their complaints into private-arbitration courts that’s all the rage these days. The owners that accepted VW’s ‘good will’ $500 cash payments will probably aren’t going to have a choice anyway if they decide to sue since an arbitration clause was added to the contract required to get the money. That should go well.