If you’re a Libertarian billionaire that was looking forward to creating your own privately managed “Free City” from a seriously distressed country — a city free from things like democracy — things may be looking up for you:
AP
Honduras Once Again Passes ‘Model Cities’ LawTEGUCIGALPA, Honduras January 24, 2013 (AP)
The Honduran congress approved once again a “model cities” project that the country’s Supreme Court had previously declared unconstitutional because it would create special development zones outside the jurisdiction of ordinary Honduran law.
Congressman Rodolfo Irias of the ruling National Party says the law “includes the necessary modifications” to answer concerns about unconstitutionality.
The vote was 110 to 13, with 5 abstentions.
The court’s rejection of the plan led Congress to fire four of the court’s five justices in December.
The plan would create “special development regions” with their own independent tax and justice systems, to spur economic growth in this Central American country struggling with corruption and crime.
The project was opposed by civic groups as well as the indigenous people.
Ooooo...these charter cities sound so nice the Honduran legislature had to pass the plan twice. Although it sounds there are some Hondurans that aren’t entirely on board with the idea. Perhaps they just weren’t sold on the idea behind the charter cities: that the key to reversing decades of poverty and deep, entrenched corruption is to hand over governance to Libertarian billionaires? Why can’t they see the light?
The New York Timne
Who Wants to Buy Honduras?By ADAM DAVIDSON
Published: May 8, 2012Shortly after the 2009 coup that overthrew Manuel Zelaya, Honduras’s newly elected president, Porfirio Lobo, asked his aides to think big, really big. How could Honduras, the original banana republic, reform a political and economic system that kept nearly two-thirds of its people in grim poverty?
One young aide, Octavio Rubén Sánchez Barrientos, had no idea how to undo the entrenched power networks. Honduras’s economy is dominated by a handful of wealthy families; two American conglomerates, Dole and Chiquita, have controlled its agricultural exports; and desperately poor farmers barely eke out subsistence wages. Then a friend showed him a video lecture of the economist Paul Romer, which got Sánchez thinking of a ridiculously big idea: What if Honduras just started all over again?
Romer, in a series of papers in the 1980s, fundamentally changed the way economists think about the role of technology in economic growth. Since then, he has studied why some countries stay poor even when they have access to the same technology as wealthier ones. He eventually realized something that seems obvious to any nonacademic, that poor countries are saddled with laws and, crucially, customs that prevent new ideas from taking shape. He concluded that if they want to be rich, poor countries need to somehow undo their invidious systems (corruption, oppression of minorities, bureaucracy) and create an environment more conducive to business. Or they could just start from scratch.
Then he decided to put the theory into practice. In 2009, Romer developed the idea of charter cities — economic zones founded on the land of poor countries but governed with the legal and political system of, often, rich ones. There were a couple of interested parties. (The president of Madagascar was intrigued by a preliminary version of the idea, Romer told me, but he was soon ousted in a coup.) Then, in late 2010, Sánchez met with Romer, and the two hurriedly persuaded President Lobo to make Honduras the site of an economic experiment. The country quickly passed a constitutional amendment that allowed for the creation of a separately ruled Special Development Region.
...
Romer’s charter city is trying to avoid this dark side of urbanization by adapting older, more successful models. The United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and Singapore were able to build well-designed cities that housed and employed millions, in part by persuading foreigners to invest heavily. Dubai created a number of microcities — one of which, for instance, is governed by a system resembling English common law with judges from Britain, Singapore and New Zealand.
Each has had well-known flaws, but Romer said the core idea can be replicated without them. The new Honduran charter city can work, he said, if its foreign leadership can similarly assure investors that they’ve created a secure place to do business — somewhere that money is safe from corrupt political cronyism or the occasional coup. If a multinational company commits to building new factories, real estate developers will follow and build apartments, which then provide the capital for electricity, sewers, telecom and a police force.
Note that President Lobo — the president that was “elected” in 2009 following the coup — is a big example of the kind of deep corruption that he’s apparently trying to fix with charter cities.
Also note that each of the “older, more successful models” — The United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and Singapore — are all undemocratc. And keep in mind that Patri Friedman, Milton Friedman’s grandson, stepped down as the head of Peter “I no longer believe democracy is compatible with freedom” Thiel’s Seasteader Institute to lead Future Cities Development, Inc. which is going to have its first project in Honduras.
Continuing...
...
Romer hasn’t yet been able to persuade any nations to take on the role of custodian (Sweden and Britain both passed), so Honduras has named a board of overseers until there are enough people to form a democracy. Romer, who is expected to be chairman, is hoping to build a city that can accommodate 10 million people, which is 2 million more than the current population of Honduras. His charter city will have extremely open immigration policies to attract foreign workers from all over. It will also tactically dissuade some from coming. Singapore, Romer said, provides a good (if sometimes overzealous) model. Its strict penalties for things like not flushing a public toilet may make for late-night jokes, but they signal to potential immigrants that it is a great place if you want to work hard and play by the rules.
There will be many rules in Romer’s charter city too. Even though he expects most initial opportunities will be fairly low-paying basic industrial jobs, the local government will mandate policies that ensure retirement savings, health care and education. According to Romer’s plan, the immigrants who arrive will not get rich, but their children will eventually be ready to climb the economic-development ladder.
...
Hmmm...a planned charter city of fairly low-paying basic industrial jobs. On the one hand, that means many of those planned jobs will be filled by robots in a decade or two, but on the other hand at least Paul Romer is envision a guaranteed healthcare and education mandate. It would be interesting to see if that healthcare mandate includes guaranteed healthcare even if the low-paid workers can’t afford it or if it’s one of those other kinds of “mandates”. You also have to wonder if there’s going to be the kind of labor law mandates that ensure workers can still afford to live without having to work so many hours that they don’t have enough free time to spend reading the history of thier countriy. This might include the history of how their oligarch overlords first took over and looted the country and then eventually implemented an “anti-corruption” scheme that involves selling off cities to international Libertarian consortiums that want to build privately run international-oligarch-founded city states with a distinct uber-Libertarian business-first constitutional philosophy. There won’t be an mandates that ensure the workers have enough time to learn about all that because, you know, that would be anti-freedom.
Unfortunately, there isn’t much chance that we’ll find out how Mr. Romer’s envisioned mandates would have played out because while the Charter Cities plan is back on the agenda, Romer is no longer part of the project. He had been leading the “Transparency Panel” for the project to ensure that the whole endeavor would be negotiated in a public, responsible manner that would lay the foundations for long-term trust between the Honduran public and the international investors that would be financially backing the cities. But he decided to quit in protest last October after he found out that the Honduran government had already worked out a deal with the first group of investors in secret:
The New York Times
Plan for Charter City to Fight Honduras Poverty Loses Its Initiator
By ELISABETH MALKIN
Published: September 30, 2012MEXICO CITY — Paul Romer is a respected economist with an unconventional plan to lift people out of poverty. And in Honduras, he thought he had found a government eager to put his ideas into practice.
What if you simply sweep aside the corruption, the self-interested elites, and the distorted economic rules that stifle growth in many poor countries and set up a brand new city with its own law and governance?
The charter city, as Mr. Romer calls it, would be administered by countries that have developed strong institutions and rule of law. If it sounds crazy, think of Hong Kong.
Once Honduras signed on and its Congress passed a law at the beginning of 2011 to start the process, the concept moved from big idea to a tentative possibility. Stories followed in The Economist, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times Magazine.
But now, Mr. Romer, an expert on economic growth, is out of his own project, tripped up by the sort of opaque decision making that his plan was supposed to change.
...
The tipping point came with the announcement a few weeks ago that the Honduran agency set up to oversee the project had signed a memorandum of understanding with its first investor group.
The news came as surprise to Mr. Romer. He believed that a temporary transparency commission he had formed with a group of well-known experts should have been consulted. He withdrew from the project.
The law setting up Honduras’s experiment in a charter city, a special development region, or RED in its Spanish initials, creates flexibility that promotes innovations, but requires strict disclosure along the way, Mr. Romer said. “The one absolute principle is a commitment to transparency,” he said.
...The investor group is led by Michael Strong, an activist who has worked in the past with libertarians like John Mackey, the founder of Whole Foods. He promises that his investors include Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and Central American investors, but when pressed for details, named only one Guatemalan businessman.
Opponents on the left have been filing challenges with the Honduran Supreme Court against the charter cities plan. The news of the investment deal brought more.
According to Mr. Strong and others involved in the project, including Mark Klugmann, an American consultant who is working with Mr. Sánchez, the transparency board never legally existed. Mr. Sánchez agreed, although he had never disputed the existence of the board in the past.
Mr. Romer said that President Lobo signed the decree in his presence in December. But he acknowledged that the board was on tenuous legal footing because of the challenges in the Supreme Court. The decree was never published.
...
Mr. Romer is now looking elsewhere.
“If it were easy to undertake social reform, it would have happened,” he said. “You just have to keep trying.”
The loss of the adademic visionary that was providing the intellectual justifications for the project was certainly a blow to the whole affair. Mr. Romer is still looking elsewhere to create his vision but his leaving wasn’t a deathblow to the project. That came a few weeks later:
The Atlantic Cities
Probable Deathblow of the Day: Charter Cities Struck Down in HondurasHenry Grabar
Oct 22, 2012Over the last year, Paul Romer’s ambitious and controversial vision for Charter Cities — foreign-run economic colonies designed to bring wealth and stability to poor countries — has been moving quickly towards reality in the Honduran jungle. But a rapid series of setbacks may have brought the project to a halt.
Last month, the project’s Transparency Commission, an oversight committee featuring Romer and several other prominent economists, was excluded from agreements between the Honduran government and international development companies, prompting fears about corruption. (One of those companies, the Future Cities Development Corporation — slogan: “Creating Humanity’s Future” — was founded by Patri Friedman, grandson of Milton, who wrote in 2009 that “democracy is not the answer.”)
Later that month, a prominent Honduras human rights lawyer who had filed one of dozens of legal challenges to the “model cities” decree, was murdered, inspiring further speculation.
Last Wednesday, the Honduran Supreme Court ruled that last October’s alterations to the Honduran constitution removing national territory from government control were unconstitutional. A branch of the court had come to that conclusion earlier this month, but because the decision (4–1) was not unanimous, the full court convened to vote. It struck down the legislative decree 13 to 2.
President Porfirio Lobo, one the project’s biggest supporters, was upset by the decision, insinuating that the court was influenced by external economic and political interests. He encouraged Hondurans to go to the Supreme Court to look for the jobs that the body’s ruling had denied them. “I’m sure they’re not thinking about the harm they’re doing to the Honduran people,” he said.
...
Deathblows like supreme court rulings that rule the project unconstitutional are difficut hurdles for any project that requires an aire of legitimacy. Deathblows to prominent opponents of the project are even worse. But as the first article indicated, where there’s a will, and lots of money, and a corrupt government, there’s a way. Yes, things are looking up for Libertarian oligarchs in Honduras.
It is a concerted effort in the erosion of national sovereignty.
The Honduras ‘Model Cities’ is reminiscent of Macau & Hong Kong in the 19th century.
Oh, good. Another opportunity to call out Adam Davidson for the contemptible toady that he is. He can put a plausible tint on a window into hell. Well done.
Well, it looks like all the folks that have desperately wanted to see public employees lose their gold-plated pension plans — so that the entire society can shift back towards the traditional paradigm of just assuming and accepting mass poverty for people in their “golden years” — might get their wish:
This is one of those stories that reminds us that the critical contract that the far-right oligarchs want destroyed isn’t just the pension contracts with employees. It’s the social contract that must be destroyed before their far-right paradise can be achieved. Until society accepts that we simply must embrace a “you’re on your own” mentality that oligarch-managed paradise can’t truly come to fruition. Not that it could anyways, but you get the idea...
Oh wow, there’s a new RoboCop movie coming out in 2014. Like the original film, the story take in 2028 Detroit after it’s been taken over by a corporate entity. Hopefully this means that the current “Emergency Financial Manager”-led take over and looting of Detroit is actually just part of a really elaborate advertisement for the upcoming film. It’s just really nice to imagine that this is all an attempt to create art as opposed to looting it.
The Detroit von Clausewitz experience: coming to a state near you:
@Pterrafractyl–
ical
MORE than a little interesting to see a mainstream, conservative business publication such as “Forbes” discussing matters fiscal/economic in terms of Von Clausewitz’s theoretical formulations!!
Other than this website/blog and my programs, where, and when, have you EVER seen or heard contemporary economic/financial/political matters discussed in terms of Von Clausewitz. (“Germany Watch,” whcih feeds along this website on the front page being an obvious exception.)
Best,
Dave
@Dave: Let’s hope the reporting trend continues because, if anything, the growing number of global free-trade agreements is going to make the temptation to engage in economic/financial warfare almost irresistible. That’s partly because money and entire industries can be relocated across the globe like never before but also because global economic integration of some sort is kind of inevitable, but it’s a lot easier to do it wrong than do it right (like most things). And as the eurozone experience is teaching us, doing it wrong is the right way to win the war. So we’ll probably see a lot more von Clausewitz experience on coming years.
So this was happening in the lead up to the November 24 election in Honduras:
And then this happened:
Note that this also happened:
So the right-wing forces in favor of selling off Honduras to billionaires just had a big win.
Also, this just happened:
Sad, scary questions of the day: The Dark Enlightenment: Is it scarily sad or sadly scary?
Note that the idea of “shopping” for your ideal government — where you can just “switch your citizenship to http://www.Austro-Hungarian-Empire.com” (but can’t vote) — has been gaining in popularity from another recent trend that sounds awfully similar to some old, bad ideas:
If art imitates life, what kind of art is going to be inspired by Detroit’s new “kick ’em when their down and take the art”-social contract getting established in Detroit’s looming bankruptcy:
Let’s see...so the proposed Grand Bargain includes:
— Cutting existing pension by 4.5% and eliminating cost of living increases which is going to guarantee poverty for these retirees as the years tick by (and it’s potentially closer to a 20% cut when claw backs are factored in).
— Transition all new employees to the bad joke that is 401k system.
— Detroit gets an “oversight commission” that would retain authority over the city’s spending, borrowing and contracts for 20 years.
— Local and national foundations would contribute more than $366 million to the fund, but only if a sweeping settlement is reached and pensioners and others agree not to sue.
— The Detroit Institute of Arts would raise $100 million.
And this is the deal the creditors are saying is too generous to the pensioners. Instead, the creditors want the art. Bad. And they’re even arguing that they should be allowed to remove the art in order to have their own appraisers inspect the pieces. While it’s quite understandable that there would be a strong desire to put people’s pensions over art works, keep in mind that this is largely a false choice because the groups opposing this plan and advocating a selloff of the art don’t want the additional proceeds to go towards pensioners. The proceeds are intended to for the creditors:
Also note that it isn’t just bond insurers like Syncora Guarantee and Financial Guaranty Insurance that have been holding out for more. European banks that were amongst the largest recipients of the backdoor Fed bailout, Dexia and Depfa, have also been big investors in Detroit’s bonds. Yes, Dexia and Depfa. Where they stand on the recent ‘grand bargain’ proposal isn’t clear from reports, but as of last October these banks weren’t exactly interested in settling soon either:
So we’ll have to wait and see if the European banks holding these bonds joined the bond insurers in holding our for more art sales to cover their losses. As the above article indicates, that these banks were holding back in the first place was somewhat surprising but there’s another group opposing the plan that’s perhaps even more surprising considering that it strips Detroit of self rule for the next two decades: The far right Mackinac Center, the architects of Michigan’s “emergency financial manager” scheme, is also opposed to the deal.
All this opposition to a deal that basically sends Detroit to democracy prison for two decades, ends public pensions, and guarantees old age poverty for the current employees that won’t receive cost of living increases and the future employees are basically handing their retirement savings to Wall Street. Why the opposition when this seems like a far right dream come true? Because there’s so much more that could be done to undo the social contract. So much more:
“AT THIS POINT, selling assets to Canada or even private investors is politically untenable. But wait a few months, until the crushing burden of Detroit’s debt makes it clear that radical solutions are in order”. That was John Fund’s prediction back in September, and here we are, 8 months later with a “grand bargain” on the table that should make the far right giddy, and there’s still opposition to the plan from not just the creditors, but also ideological champions of shredding the social contract like the Mackinac Center.
On top of that, the House Speaker Jase Bolger, of the GOP, is demanding that Detroit’s unions also throw some money into the bailout fund (presumably the pension cuts weren’t enough). And until that happens he won’t back the ‘bargain’. And keep in mind that the proposal to sell off Belle Island and turn it into self-governed Hong Kong was proposed by the Mackinac Center specifically to address Detroit’s pension crisis. So we could be looking at not only an extended period of court battles but also extended political opposition to any deal that doesn’t utterly crush Detroit’s public sector and sell parts of it off. If folks like John Fund get their way, Canada might need to start looking into the value of that art too since it’ll presumably come with the package deal.
Will Michigan’s Republicans kiss the ring? A certain pair of oligarchs can’t wait to find out:
Keep in mind that in addition to the 4.5% pension cut there’s also the loss of any cost of living adjustments and a “clawback” of the last decade of pension contributions that substantially raises the cuts.
Skipping down...
Notice how there’s no actual plan from the Kochs beyond letting Detroit die and dancing on its grave (and then reanimating the body as part of horrible experiment). Consider this a preview.
Here’s another preview of what life will be like once the oligarchs are finished privatizing the commons: Don’t have enough money for water? Oh well. You can dig a well or go to hell. Your oligarchs don’t really care either way. They only care if you can pay:
“This is a test being looked at by cities across the US — even the world.” Yes indeed.
“An investor, either international or local, builds infrastructure…The territory in which they invest becomes an autonomous zone from Honduras…The investing company must write the laws that govern the territory, establish the local government, hire a private police force, and even has the right to set the educational system and collect taxes.” Sounds pretty nice, doesn’t it? At least nice if you’re the owner. But Honduras’s charter city oligarchs are about to get another gift: Militarized police for their brand new city-states:
Once again:
That does indeed sound nightmarish. But in case that didn’t send a strong enough chill down your spine, here’s a bit more on how the rules of how that nightmare is supposed to operate. Yes, nightmares have rules. The scariest kinds of nightmares. The nightmares you can’t wake up from:
Yes, even Paul Romer, the guy behind this whole charter city idea, is “concerned that the far-reaching delegation of what really are powers of government to private entities and foreign, private individuals is taking place without sufficient debate” between the government and critics of ZEDEs. Hopefully he’ll have some luck taking his concerns to the Committee for the Adoption of Best Practices (CAMP) that regulates best practices for the ZEDEs, although it didn’t sound like CAMP was stacked with people prone to being concerned about things like ‘sufficient debate between the government and critics of ZEDEs’:
Wow, given that list of CAMP members, the Habsburg on the board, Gabriela von Habsburg, just might be the best bet at lending a sympathetic ear to Romer’s concerns and that’s mostly due to the fact that she appears to be focused on revitalizing her family’s power and influence and maintaining the appearance of decency as opposed to just trying to make a lot of money or create a more horrible world on principle like all the Libertarians involved. And when the aristocrats are your best bet, you already lost.
So, all in all, it’s quite a nightmare.
A number of eyebrows were raised when Rudy Giuliani recently asserted that President Obama didn’t love America, which was a little eyebrow-raising since Giuliani has been saying stuff like that for years and most Republicans agree with him anyways and want to see more.
No, the real eyebrow-raiser in Rudy’s latest contribution the GOP’s Neverending Evergrowing Histrionics Parade is that he included the suggestion that President Obama was driven by a sense of anti-colonial sentiments. Not that we shouldn’t expect Republicans to accuse Obama of desiring to destroy the United States out of a desire for anti-colonial revenge. We should expect that. But if anyone has a reason to avoid ‘going there’ with the anti-colonial stuff, it’s Rudy Giuliani:
That’s right, in addition to sharing his wisdoms with El Salvador, Rudy Giuliani has been hired by the government of Honduras to presumably tell them things like, “you are not going to solve it with schools, libraries, nice neighborhoods and sports teams. You have to emphasize law enforcement,” while they set up their new privately-owned charter cities. There’s nothing colonial about that!
And he’s already started issuing a number or similar recommendations to some of Honduras’s neighbors. For instance, let’s take a peek at Rudy wielding his social healing magic in Guatemala:
“When you have a tremendous amount of crime in your society, you are not going to solve it with schools, libraries, nice neighborhoods and sports teams,” Giuliani said. “You have to emphasize law enforcement. As soon you get the crime down, the next thing you do is build up the social programs. That’s when you create more jobs, better neighborhoods, better schools.”
Given New York City’s historic drop in crime during Giuliani’s administration (which also took place everywhere else in the world for reasons we have yet to identify), we should probably expect Giuliani’s advice to Honduras to involve a heavy emphasis on cracking down on crime. But Hondurs should wait until after it’s solved its endemic problems with rampant crime before it makes investments in things like better schools or more jobs according to Rudy.
You can see why the Honduran government would love to pay for his views on these kinds of topics. Especially since he’s calling for the same failed strategy that has worked out so well for Honduras thus far...
Yes, even before hiring Rudy Giuliani for criminal advise, Honduras was already years into an effort to privatize security forces, militarize the police, and cut social spending. It’s almost as if Honduras’s ruling National Party has been listening to Rudy all along.
Check out Rand’s Grand Plan for the US: turn the 10 most impoverished states into “Economic Freedom Zones”:
To summarize:
Wow, that idea sounds...uh...awesome!
Part of the fun of this plan is when you factor in all the other massive tax and spending cuts he’s proposing in addition to the “Economic Freedom Zones” scheme, plus his calls for balancing the budget with vastly reduced revenues, we can’t really just look at today’s top ten poorest states. We won’t really know which states end up being the 10 poorest until after President Paul nukes the economy, although since the top 10 poorest states are also heavy recipients of Federal spending odds most of today’s poor 10 states would still be on the list post-Paulpocalypse.
Still, there is kind of a fun lottery element to this for all the people living in, say, the 20 poorest states. Will they get knocked down into the poorest 10 and “Freedom Zoned” after Rand guts the Federal budget or not? We’ll just have to wait and let the chips fall where they may. It’s like a special lottery for the states!
Paul Krugman had a recent post about a twitter exchange between Brad DeLong (a sane economost) and James Pethokoukis (an American Enterprise Institute economist, so...) over why Republicans won’t acknowledge that Ben Bernanke overall helped the economy during his tenure as the head of the Federal Reserve. Pethokoukis’ reply?
Yes, as has been obvious for ever since the financial crisis started in 2008, the GOP has been fuming that the US hasn’t been forced to go though a “Mellon-esque” national fire sale. And why would they be fuming about it? There’s so much more to liquidate now than in the early 1930’s! Like the New Deal and social safety nets! Those can be liquidated.
But keep in mind that folks like Pethokoukis don’t just want to see a Mellon-esque liquidation that dismantles the social safety net. That’s just a start. Why not sell of the poor cities to the wealthier ones?
Yes, you read that right:
Hey, yeah, why don’t we hand over Detroit to Houston (which would presumable have “Emergency Financial Manager” status or something), then have Houston turn it into a low-tax/no regulation business haven, and Detroit can pay Houston back for the favor with a cut of Detroit’s future tax revenue.
Also, the government should ‘encourage’ Detroit’s unemployed residents to just leave by converting some of their unemployment checks into a relocation voucher. Although, aren’t jobs supposed to be created for them under this scheme? Isn’t that the whole point of this scheme? No?
With an election just around the corner, Turkey’s main opposition party, the CHP, has a plan. A megaplan:
A whole new megacity where nothing currently exists is quite a plan! But will is be a politically popular plan? That’s going to depend on a lot, like how popular that megacity is going to be if it’s a Charter City too:
“Having said that, I believe the CHP’s mega project is less crazy than the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) crazy projects such as Canal Istanbul.”
That must be one crazy canal.
Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris has an idea for how to deal for the growing humanitarian refugee crisis facing now just Europe but the world: Have Greece or Italy sell him an island that he can turn into a private nation, and then send all the refugees there were they would be employed in building their new nation:
Are refugee island nations going to become a tool in the global community crisis response toolbox? As a solution, it does have the advantage of allowing the wealthy nations of world to pretend like they’re actually helping people without actually having to help them very much and outsourcing the solution to billionaires, so there might be some significant appeal to the idea for many nations.
And as the article also pointed out, Sawiris isn’t the only billionaire to propose such an idea:
So who knows, maybe refugee island nations are going to become the next new hot magic-bullet idea that policy-makers can get all excited about. Like a Charter City for refugees, although it sounded like Jason Buzi’s “Refugee Nation” idea wouldn’t exactly be a Charter City if his “Refugee Nation” really was self-governed by the refugees themselves.
And that brings us to a rather critical aspect of this whole “refugee island” proposal: Are the new refugee nations actually going to be democratic nations, or will they operate under one of the many non-democratic models of governance that we find across the globe? Or might they use a non-democratic model? Perhaps a non-democratic model that has lots of powerful backers but few actual real world examples. Models like, of course, Charter Cities:
As we saw, Jason Buzi has been explicit about self-governance being a key element to his ‘Refugee Nation’ idea. But as we also saw, setting up these Refugee Nations as special economic zones (a key selling point for the Charter City model) is also something being talked about. And the more rapidly these sudden ‘refugee nations’ are expected to become economically self-sufficient, the greater the pressure will be to turn themselves into de facto pro-corporate Charter Cities. So while it’s sort of nice to see grand gestures from billionaires for addressing urgent humanitarian needs (needs that they world could easily address if the world really cared), it’s probably going to be rather critical to ensure that any sort of billionaire-created ‘refugee nation’ scheme doesn’t end up turning into a privately-owned and operated ‘special economic zone’ instead.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that, should the world go down the ‘refugee nation’ path towards helping those that can’t realistically return home any time soon or ever, we’re probably going to need a lot more ‘refugee nations’ in the future than you might suspect. A whole lot more.
As the 2018 Winter Olympics comes to close, perhaps this a good point to acknowledge the fact that Winter Olympics are going to a lot harder for cities to host in the future as a result of climate change. In fact, a recent study found that only 8 of the previous 21 Winter Olympic host cities will still be able to host the games by 2100 unless humanity takes urgent action soon. That’s right, over 60 percent of the cities that once hosted the winter Olympics won’t be reliably wintery during winter by the end of this century. And that presumably means winter sports won’t even be option at all for some of those countries. At least outdoor winter sports.
As far as research findings goes, it’s a pretty big deal for the winter Olympics. Perhaps even ‘existential crisis’ level news. Because don’t forget that we might have runaway warming that’s worse than predicted. There might not be enough snow. In other words, the winter Olympics might have to be entirely indoors next century.
But when it comes to all the different kinds of ‘existential crisis news’ a city might receive as climate change plays out, the news that a city might not be able to host the Winter Olympics is pretty low on the devastating news index. It could obviously get a lot worse.
For example, that city might be in a country that’s going to disappear as a result of climate change. And that’s why we a group of Pacific Island nations — Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau — petitioned the wealthy nations of the world back in 2015 to make plans for what is increasingly becoming an eventuality: the complete destruction of their nation leading to total migration of everyone in the country:
““At the moment, if you are forced out of your home due to inundation you simply become stateless. There’s no mechanism to ensure that these people won’t fall through the cracks. When you go to Kiribati and see people trying to repair sandbagged seawalls, you can see why this is a live issue for them.””
As these Pacific Island nations were emphatically pointing out to the world in 2015, if you are forced out of your home due to inundation you simply become stateless. That’s it. There’s no global system in place for dealing with the disappearance of entire nations despite the fact that the disappearance of entire nations is basically an inevitability at this point. Nor is there any meaningful preparation for putting such a system in place:
The UN refugee convention applies only to those fleeing persecution, but not people fleeing due to climate change. Will that change? Only time will tell, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the wealthiest nations of the world have shown little interest so far:
It’s something to keep in mind as the immigration policy debate plays out in the US. Donald Trump and the Republicans have made opposition to refugees and a massive shift in US immigration policy towards a purely ‘merit-based’ system key demands in exchange for allowing the young ‘Dreamers’ to stay. That’s a system pretty much designed to keep climate change refugees out of the US. So will the US refuse to help the people in the future fleeing from nations that are literally being swallowed by the oceans? And what about the rest of the world? Will climate change refugees become a new source of permanently stateless people? Scattered around the world with minimal to no rights because the countries that guaranteed their rights are gone? We’ll see.
But it’s not just nations at risk of getting submerged by rising oceans that are going to be sources of climate change refugees. As the following article about the warnings Sherri Goodman, a former US deputy undersecretary of defense, makes clear, there are going to be plenty of countries that don’t disappear under water that are still going to be generating large numbers of refugees. Bangladesh, for instance, isn’t going to disappear. But it is going to experience massive flooding that will drive people out and into neighboring countries. And Syria, which experienced an intense drought in the lead up to its civil war, makes it clear that terror groups and warfare are going to thrive in countries impacted by climate change, resulting in potentially massive numbers of refugees.
So while the call by the Pacific Island nations to set up a global system for dealing with climate change refugees is clearly a call to protect their own people from a foreseeable future existential threat, it’s not like island nations are the only places that will be generating climate change refugees. This is going to be a global phenomena:
“Sherri Goodman, a former US deputy undersecretary of defence, argues the impact of climate change – rising seas, extreme weather, prolonged droughts – will be a “threat multiplier” for security challenges, and could be the spark that ignites conflict and drives new waves of mass forced migration.”
Yep, climate change isn’t just about rising oceans, bigger floods, and longer droughts. It’s a general threat multiplier that’s going to be making all sorts of crises more frequent and more intense. And for a country like Australia, which is in a region of world with a huge population living along coast lines, climate change is going to turn their neighborhood into ‘disaster alley’:
And as the example of Syria makes clear, there’s going to be a lot of ‘disaster alleys’ all over the world. Wherever you find a bad situation where extremist groups might gain a foot hold today, it’s going to get worse in the future as the climate situation gets worse:
And as Goodman points out with Bangladesh, if the neighboring countries of a climate change impacted nation are willing to take those refugees in, it’s very unclear what’s going to happen to them if they aren’t allowed to flee by land other than mass migration by boats to whichever nation might take them:
And this is all why some sort of update to the global social contract is going to be required to take into account this looming crisis of a steadily-growing population of stateless people:
So how might the world respond to this future need to deal with massive numbers of refugees who can’t return home either because their home country is unsafe or no longer above water? Well, as the following article describes, there are already all sorts of experiments underway that could be seen as templates for how the world deals with stateless people. But as the article also notes, those templates can be pretty problematic, either because they’re tailor-made to service the wealthy along, or tailor-made to service the poor in a way that benefits the wealthy. And some of those template look an awful lot of like the ‘charter city’ solution. Charter cities specifically set up to put refugees to work. For cheap:
“Citizenship and its varying legal definition has become one of the key battlegrounds of the 21st century, as nations attempt to stake out their power in a G‑Zero, globalized world, one increasingly defined by transnational, borderless trade and liquid, virtual finance. In a climate of pervasive nationalism, jingoism, xenophobia, and ever-building resentment toward those who move, it’s tempting to think that doing so would become more difficult. But alongside the rise of populist, identitarian movements across the globe, identity itself is being virtualized, too. It no longer needs to be tied to place or nation to function in the global marketplace.”
And that right there captures an key element of what’s drive the world today: in the middle of a growing global climate of the nativist side of right-wing thought — pervasive nationalism, jingoism, xenophobia, and ever-building resentment toward those who move — we find a number of nations playing around with redefinitions of citizenship that are much closer to the libertarian/open borders side of right-wing thought. Either through schemes to sell citizenship to wealthy individuals on one end to setting up charter-cities that turn refugees into people ‘free’ to work in a special economic zone on the other end. It’s a multi-faceted global rethink of citizenship. A multi-faceted largely right-wing rethink of citizenship where it can also be bought, traded, and rewritten. Citizenship as a commodity. And, not surprisingly, blockchain technology is at the center of many of these schemes, taking the concept of ‘virtual citizenship’ to the digital realm:
And it is perhaps somewhat ironic that the innovation of ‘golden visas’, where citizenship can be outright purchased by wealthy people, was pioneered by island nations most at risk of rising oceans. And for a country like Cyprus, this ‘golden visa’ scheme doesn’t just buy a wealthy individual citizenship to Cyprus. It’s a golden visa for the European Union. At the price of 2 million euros:
So that’s one redefinition of citizenship that will have clear applicability for climate change refugees. Specifically, very wealthy people.
But what about the non-wealthy? Well, there’s sort of a middle-class version offered by Greece: for 250,000 euros you can purchase a right to residency. Not actual citizenship, but you can live there:
And that gives us an idea of what sort of ‘middle-class’ options might pop up as the number of climate refugees grows: countries will start offering ‘citizenship-lite’ or ‘non-citizenship rights to residency’. For a price that’s more in reach for the non-super-rich.
But 250,000 euros is still wildly out of reach for the vast majority of people in the world. So what about people with no chance of paying substantial fees? Well, as the story of the Kuwait-based scheme to get the island of Comoros to open its citizenship up for sale demonstrated, it’s possible that governments will pay the fee...possibly to get rid of people they’d rather see go. And in this case it was the already-stateless Bidoon: the more than 100,000 people across the Gulf nations who, despite residing in the region for generations, have never been included as citizens, and are effectively stateless. When the island of Comoros opened up is citizenship for sale, the UAE paid the island to take its stateless Bidoon:
And then there’s the template Syria’s refugees are facing in Jordan, where 650,00 refugees are barred from jobs. Instead, refugees can find work in the King Hussein Bin Talal Development Area set up on the outskirts of the Zaatari refugee camp where refugees can work under special trade rules for European companies:
Recall that Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris proposed exactly this model to deal with even more Syrian refugees when he looked into buying a Greek island so he could turn it into a special refugee work zone.
So that’s clearly going to be a very popular approach to dealing with climate refugees: special cheap labor work zones. They won’t get the full rights of citizenship. But they’ll get the right to be cheap labor in a special work zone. In other words, they’ll get the right to live in a special climate-change ‘charter city’.
And then there’s the digital citizenship model. A model where those elements of citizenship that can be handled entirely in the digital domain — like the right to open bank accounts, start companies, sign documents, and pay tax under a nation’s jurisdiction — are available for anyone in the world as a digital service. It’s a model currently being pushed by Estonia, but by no means limited to Estonia. Because it’s a model for society libertarian anarchists have long been pining for: government-for-hire, where you sign up for particular government services in a global marketplace of government services:
Yep, the Estonian ‘virtual citizenship’ model is basically a national showcase for the anarcho-capitalist model for society. A model that the people behind Bitnation are very open about, where various authorities will basically sell service, like certifying marriage certificates, or storing your digital property in a digital jurisdiction where you have extremely strong privacy rights (‘Swiss banks’ for digital information). And a model that, obviously, will have limited appeal to desperate refugees simply looking for a place to live. Such people need the ability to actually live somewhere, not piecemeal citizenship in a ‘digital charter cities’.
So, as can see, there is indeed a rethinking of citizenship happening around the globe at the same that that climate change is threatening to force humanity to respond to growing waves of essentially stateless people. But that rethinking appears to be limited things like selling ‘golden visas’ to the wealthy, to selling digital citizenship services to the masses, to setting up special economic zones that turn refugees into cheap labor for international corporations. In other words, a for-profit rethinking of citizenship and rights.
It’s a reminder that society’s slavish dedication to profit above all is one of the biggest areas of society that’s going to require a rethinking in order to deal with the tumult of climate change. So if future winter Olympics could include a ‘rethinking society around non-profit-maximizing models’ competition that would be really great new sport to watch. A sport dedicated to convincing societies to take climate change seriously before the full catastrophic effects are felt would also be a really captivating.
It was just a matter of time: Check out the latest GOP to address poverty in America. Yep, charter cities. Although in this case they’ll be called ‘microcities’. But the idea is basically the same. And that idea was at the core of what Naved Jafry, who was contracted by the Department of Housing and Urban development to promote this ‘microcities’ idea as a way of addressing poverty in Americas cities. Privatizing poor areas. That appears to be the plan.
But the plan ran into a problem. It turns out Jafry is a fraud (surprise!):
“David Freedman, an attorney for Oglesby’s family, said he was surprised Jafry had resurfaced in an influential role in the government. “If he is advising Donald Trump we’re screwed – we should just surrender to North Korea right now,” said Freedman.”
“If he is advising Donald Trump we’re screwed – we should just surrender to North Korea right now.” And that’s the kind of impression Naved Jafry appears to leave people with. He’s so rotten it’s a sign of doom if he’s advising the Trump administration. And yet he is indeed doing so. Or at least was until all these questions were raised and he resigned.
And that sense of civic doom appears to be warranted when you look at the kind of advice Jafry was giving HUD: “microcities” (Charter Cities) for America’s poor. That literally appears to be his role at HUD: advocating for microcities:
“Jafry said he used his role to advocate for “microcities”, where managers privately set their own laws and taxes away from central government control.”
And when asked whether or not he actually discussed this with HUD director Ben Carson, Jafry indicated that, yes, he had and they were working on “a political solution on this.” In other words, they were trying to figure out how to sell the American public on the idea of privatizing their own government:
And don’t forget that, while such a plan would be peddled to the public as a plan for ‘helping’ America’s poor, it’s not like you could limit the ‘microcity’ rules to just include the poor. It would have to include everyone living in that geographic area that gets designated a ‘microcity.’ So despite the fact that Americans love ‘kicking the poor’, this would be a plan that involves privatizing government for a lot more people than just the poor so the politics could be extra tricky. America’s inner cities would become private corporate fiefdoms. That could be a tough sale.
So did Jafry actually have any experience with charter cities/microcities? Uh, no, but that didn’t stop him from claiming he did:
And how did he end up at HUD in the first place? Well, that’s not entirely clear. Because the relevant parties don’t really want to talk about it:
So it looks like America’s cities dodged a bullet. But given that this idea was even under consideration, and given how much this aligns with the GOP’s long-standing drive to privatize as much as possible, it’s hard to imagine that this isn’t going to come up again. Over and over. After all, it’s a potentially great (horrible) sales pitch for the far right dream of privately owned societies if they can somehow pull off an apparent ‘success’ story.
And what will Americans consider a ‘success’ when it comes to outsourcing the government in poor areas? We’ll find out, but we’ve probably seen this movie before.