COMMENT: In the For The Record series about the Piggy-Back Coup(s), we noted that some observers feel that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood may be hoping for the ascent of a secular government, the failure of which would pave the way for their assumption of power.
An Asia Times article forecasts the collapse of the oil-importing Arab economies. This might well bring the Brotherhood to power and/or pave the way for a more traditional form of fascism to manifest itself in those nations–driven by the extreme social dislocation of economic catastrophe.
“Humpty Obumpty and the Arab Spring” by Spengler; Asia Times; 6/1/2011.
EXCERPT: I’ve been warning for months that Egypt, Syria, Tunisia and other Arab oil-importing countries face a total economic meltdown (see Food and failed Arab states, Feb 2, and The hunger to come in Egypt, May 10). Now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed my warnings.
The leaders of the industrial nations waited until last weekend’s Group of Eight (G‑8) summit to respond, and at the initiative of United States President Barack Obama proposed what sounds like a massive aid program but probably consists mainly of refurbishing old programs.
The egg has splattered, and all of Obumpty’s horses and men can’t mend it. Even the G‑8’s announcement was fumbled; Canada’s Prime Minister John Harper refused to commit new money, a dissonant note that routine diplomatic preparation would have pre-empted.
The numbers thrown out by the IMF are stupefying. “In the current baseline scenario,” wrote the IMF on May 27, “the external financing needs of the region’s oil importers is projected to exceed $160 billion during 2011–13.” That’s almost three years’ worth of Egypt’s total annual imports as of 2010. As of 2010, the combined current account deficit (that is, external financing needs) of Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Morocco and Tunisia was about $15 billion a year.
What the IMF says, in effect, is that the oil-poor Arab economies — especially Egypt — are not only broke, but dysfunctional, incapable of earning more than a small fraction of their import bill. The disappearance of tourism is an important part of the problem, but shortages of fuel and other essentials have had cascading effects throughout these economies. . . .
I was afraid of fascism rising over there soon, too. Thanks for posting this, Dave. I honestly feel that not enough people appreciate the work that you do.
Few people appreciate just how important Egypt is to one of the most important regions on the earth. This could end up being as powerful as the 1978–1981 coup in Iran. This scares me.
It could be argued that the Weimar govt. was allowed to exist for so long only to build a more thorough repugnance for democracy among the German populace. So Plato’s arguments against democracy are once again ‘proven’ in the Middle East, not because democracy inevitably leads to dictatorship, as Plato said, but because events are being forced into that mould by long-term fascist operations.
Seeing that a secular govt. is a needed stage in the eventual establishment of fascist theocracies is clarifying, considering the present confusion of middle-eastern events. The simple raw sequence of secular authoritarian to secular democracy to fascism is worth a show, Dave.