As the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to wrestle with the decision of when and how quickly to wind down its quantitative easing (QE) program while inflation remains stubbornly below the 2 percent target and likely to stay well below 2 percent for the foreseeable future, it’s worth noting that there’s a new nightmare to add to the equation: The euro has surged in value this year, a move that not only depresses exports in recovery economies like Spain and Portugal but also depresses inflation. And one of the things holding down the value of the euro is the ECB’s QE program. So if the ECB tapers off the QE too early and quickly it’s going to make an overly-strong euro even stronger while dragging inflation even lower, potentially derailing fragile recoveries in the austerity-inflicted member states. And that means not sending the wrong signals is a key goal of the ECB is things are going to go smoothly. Guess which signals are being sent.
Well, it’s official. The ‘second pillar’ of the EU’s banking union — a 55 billion euro bail-out fund and a bunch of new rules — appears to be in place following recent negotiations. It was an all night compromise bender! Yes, lots of compromises were made, but the core principles that have emerged during the EU’s multi-year-long quest for a banking union are still intact. Uh oh.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The EU’s leaders want to welcome you to the new “New Normal”.
The eurozone troika recently eased market worries a bit by renegotiating part of Ireland’s massive bailout. But the public still wants answers on why the 2010 bailout happened in the first place and those answers could reignite the crisis. It isn’t easy being the ECB. Or the EU. Or the IMF.
Supporters of Berlin’s austerity drive across the eurozone were relieved by Ireland’s approval of the ‘Fiscal Compact’ on Thursday. But this ‘good news’ coincides with a growing backlash by key leaders an officials against the endless calls for austerity without a ‘pro-growth’ component. Except, as usual, not really.
Recent Comments