Lift Off! That was the announcement by the Federal Reserve this week when the world’s biggest and most influential central bank started the long awaited raising of its benchmark short-term rate a quarter point from near-zero levels, marking the first time the Fed has raised rates since 2006. It was big news, except this rate hike was telegraphed for quite a while now and virtually everyone was expecting the Fed to do exactly what it did, so it’s not as big as it could have been. If the Fed had decided not to raise rates, despite all the telegraphing, that probably would have been a bigger story. But would it have been a bad story if the Fed decided to keep rates at their current near-zero levels? There’s a big debate in the economic community over that. And it’s a debate that pits prudent economists with excellent track-records like Paul Krugman, someone who opposed the Fed’s December “lift off” decision, against the broad array of “permahawks”. But it’s not just the question with respect to Fed. The European Central Bank made a policy announcement this month too regarding its stimulus measure and it was indeed rather surprising. And as we’re also going to see in this post, it was surprising in the way that just might have done serious damage to not just the credibility of ECB President Mario Draghi but the ECB itself. Or at least credibility in the ECB’s commitment to its single mandate of keeping inflation hovering around 2 percent.
To placate permahawks (to maintain credibility) or not placate the permahawks (to maintain credibility)? That is the question. Or at least one of the questions central banks face. Unfortunately.
In FTR #772, we looked at a number of suspicious deaths in and around the financial industry, this as a number of legal investigations into the misdeeds of the “banksters” were proceeding. This program updates that extraordinary mortality rate. One of the surreal, almost hallucinatory financial instruments that were at the center of the 2008 financial collapse were CDO’s–collateralized debt obligations. We wonder if the high mortality rate, the ongoing capital troubles and legal investigations plaguing the firms may be related to these deaths. Are we looking at collateralized “death” obligations? We note that JP Morgan Chase has experienced a particularly high mortality rate.
There have been quite a few developments in the eurozone recently with major possible policy changes announced in recent weeks. Things like buying bonds to shore up markets and stimulate the economy (“quantitative easing”) are now on the table. Quantitative easing is normal central bank stuff that has been effectively shoved off the table of ECB policy options by the Bundesbank’s unorthodox economic theories until now. Unfortunately, it’s looking like the quantitative easing is going to be unorthodox too. No ‘easing’ for the governments. Much ‘easing’ for the banks. And the austerity continues.
In past posts, we have noted the ideological underpinnings of Adbusters magazine, which appers to be the genesis point of the Occupy Wall Street movement. Editor Kalle Lasn’s suggestion that the world’s poor and disenfranchised turn to Islamic economic and social theory and practice is priceless, and frankly typical of the poor quality of the thinking he manifests. The World Bank–which Lasn criticizes–is overtly sympathetic to the corporatist models upon which the Muslim Brotherhood’s economic theories are predicated.
Along with last week’s news of Germany’s record trade surplus, the opening of an EU investigation into Germany’s growing surpluses, and Europe’s other recent remarkable socioeconomic achievements, Angela Merkel urged the CDU to compromise on an across-the-board 8.50 euro German minimum wage. It’s great news because wage deflation is still part of the EU’s long-term agenda.
Ordoliberalism has long been the economic philosophy guiding German policy-makers. But with the creation of the eurozone, ordoliberalism has quietly become the default policy-stance for the entire zone. This has been happening with little recognition that ordoliberal ideas have been playing such a profound role. And there’s been even less attention paid to the ordoliberal philosophy itself. Surprise! It’s kind of fascist. Updated 7/26/2013
There’s been quite a bit of chatter lately about the threat of “Currency Wars” amongst global policymakers. It’s part of a larger debate over just what kind of economic policies and modes of central banking should even be philosophically allowable. The Bundesbank has some strong ideas about what governments should and should not be allowed to do with their monetary and fiscal policies. Not surprisingly, they’re also bad ideas.
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